Stellar signals: which ones have held up
19 common signals tested on every daily XLM candle since 31 May 2018 (3,090 days). 2 signals show evidence of an effect on the following week. 9 signals did no better than picking days at random.
XLM price · last close$0.135514 Nov 2026 close: $0.1355 (7d −10.4%)
RSI (14)26.4under 30
Volume vs 30-day average1.55×3× or more is a spike
Market buys, share of volume45.9%above 50%: buyers lifting offers
From all-time high−83%below the 200-day average
Trading signals, ranked by evidence
| Signal | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RSI drops below 30 | 30 | 70% | +4.7% | −1.1% | 11% | 84 | Strong evidence · leans up | 8 Nov 2026 |
| 10% drop in a day | 44 | 57% | +3.1% | −1.1% | 17% | 72 | Strong evidence · leans up | 30 May 2026 |
| Volume spike on a green day | 44 | 57% | +1.3% | −1.1% | 54% | 51 | Weak evidence | 28 Sep 2026 |
| 10% jump in a day | 54 | 52% | +0.4% | −1.1% | 73% | 49 | Weak evidence | 21 Aug 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | 59 | 42% | −2.4% | −1.1% | 77% | 48 | Weak evidence | 7 Oct 2026 |
| 20% drop in a week | 31 | 61% | +1.6% | −1.1% | 58% | 48 | Weak evidence | 25 Jun 2026 |
| Volume spike on a red day | 30 | 53% | +1.1% | −1.1% | 68% | 46 | Weak evidence | 22 Aug 2026 |
| Golden cross | 12 | 17% | −7.4% | −1.1% | 35% | 46 | Weak evidence | 20 Sep 2026 |
| RSI rises above 70 | 36 | 47% | −0.5% | −1.1% | 94% | 45 | Weak evidence | 21 Aug 2026 |
| Breakdown to a 90-day low | 25 | 56% | +1.5% | −1.1% | 66% | 44 | Weak evidence | 7 Nov 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | 53 | 40% | −3.9% | −1.1% | 42% | 27 | No better than chance | 27 Oct 2026 |
| Extreme buy pressure | 72 | 44% | −0.6% | −1.1% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance | 19 May 2026 |
| Extreme sell pressure | 74 | 38% | −1.4% | −1.1% | 97% | 21 | No better than chance | 29 Oct 2026 |
| Five red days in a row | 35 | 46% | −0.2% | −1.1% | 90% | 20 | No better than chance | 23 Jun 2026 |
| Five green days in a row | 35 | 49% | −1.0% | −1.1% | 99% | 18 | No better than chance | 22 Sep 2026 |
| Breakout to a 90-day high | 18 | 50% | +2.1% | −1.1% | 63% | 17 | No better than chance | 28 Sep 2026 |
| Volatility squeeze | 28 | 50% | −2.3% | −1.1% | 89% | 17 | No better than chance | 26 Jul 2026 |
| Capitulation: heavy drop on heavy volume | 20 | 50% | −0.6% | −1.1% | 96% | 11 | No better than chance | 15 Sep 2026 |
| Death cross | 11 | 55% | +1.0% | −1.1% | 85% | 11 | No better than chance | 10 Sep 2026 |
After drops and rallies
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30% rise in 7 days | 28 | 61% | +5.7% | −1.1% | 6.8% | 90 | Strong evidence · leans up | 28 May 2026 |
| 15% drop in 7 days | 59 | 63% | +2.0% | −1.1% | 28% | 53 | Weak evidence | 24 Jun 2026 |
| 7% drop in a day | 97 | 54% | +1.5% | −1.1% | 25% | 52 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 10% drop in 3 days | 109 | 51% | +0.7% | −1.1% | 42% | 50 | Weak evidence | 14 Oct 2026 |
| 7% rise in a day | 120 | 43% | −2.6% | −1.1% | 56% | 49 | Weak evidence | 28 Sep 2026 |
| 10% rise in 3 days | 109 | 43% | −2.5% | −1.1% | 63% | 48 | Weak evidence | 21 Sep 2026 |
| 20% rise in 7 days | 57 | 51% | +0.1% | −1.1% | 79% | 48 | Weak evidence | 22 Sep 2026 |
| 5% drop in a day | 174 | 49% | −0.5% | −1.1% | 82% | 47 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 15% drop in a day | 14 | 71% | +4.2% | −1.1% | 38% | 46 | Weak evidence | 10 Oct 2025 |
| 100% rise in 30 days | 13 | 38% | −6.1% | −1.1% | 49% | 44 | Weak evidence | 22 Jul 2025 |
| 15% rise in a day | 25 | 56% | +0.9% | −1.1% | 75% | 43 | Weak evidence | 28 May 2026 |
| 20% drop in 3 days | 12 | 67% | +2.5% | −1.1% | 66% | 40 | Weak evidence | 9 Nov 2022 |
| 15% drop in 3 days | 36 | 56% | +1.8% | −1.1% | 49% | 25 | No better than chance | 3 Jun 2026 |
| 40% drop in 30 days | 10 | 60% | +2.9% | −1.1% | 64% | 25 | No better than chance | 31 Dec 2024 |
| 50% rise in 30 days | 40 | 43% | −3.1% | −1.1% | 68% | 25 | No better than chance | 17 Jun 2026 |
| 30% drop in 30 days | 42 | 50% | −1.0% | −1.1% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance | 28 Jun 2026 |
| 5% rise in a day | 179 | 45% | −1.2% | −1.1% | 100% | 20 | No better than chance | 30 Oct 2026 |
| 20% rise in 3 days | 30 | 50% | +1.0% | −1.1% | 70% | 20 | No better than chance | 21 Aug 2026 |
| 50% rise in 7 days | 11 | 55% | +0.6% | −1.1% | 90% | 10 | No better than chance | 29 May 2026 |
| 30% drop in 7 days | 7 | 86% | +4.1% | −1.1% | 18% | Too few cases | 11 May 2022 | |
| 50% drop in 30 days | 5 | 40% | −6.3% | −1.1% | 26% | Too few cases | 17 Jun 2021 |
When Bitcoin moves
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin jumps 5% in a day | 114 | 53% | +0.5% | −1.1% | 48% | 49 | Weak evidence | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 5% in a day | 95 | 48% | −0.5% | −1.1% | 87% | 47 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 10% in a day | 17 | 59% | +4.3% | −1.1% | 35% | 22 | No better than chance | 5 Feb 2026 |
| Bitcoin jumps 10% in a day | 25 | 52% | +0.2% | −1.1% | 86% | 16 | No better than chance | 6 Feb 2026 |
Returns are measured 7 days after the daily close that confirmed the signal. “Ordinary” is the median 7-day move from any day. How the proof score works.
Seen in the last 30 days
| Date | Signal | Close | +7d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov 2026 | RSI drops below 30 | $0.1463 | open |
| 7 Nov 2026 | Breakdown to a 90-day low | $0.1512 | −10.4% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | Extreme sell pressure | $0.1623 | −5.7% |
| 27 Oct 2026 | Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | $0.1705 | −4.8% |
| 16 Oct 2026 | Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | $0.1815 | −4.5% |
Signals from the most recent daily close are sealed for a day and shown to members first.