Stellar · XLM/USDT · daily
What happens to Stellar after a breakdown to a 90-day low?
Since 2018, Stellar has shown a breakdown to a 90-day low 25 times. In the 25 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 56% of the time, with a median move of +1.5%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for XLM is −1.1%.
Weak evidence44
There is a gap, but once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 66% of the time, so it should not be relied on.
By holding period
| After | Cases | Higher | Median move | Middle half | Ordinary median | Gap | By luck | Proof score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 25 | 56% | +0.4% | −3.7% to +4.3% | 0.0% | +0.4% | 80% | 15 |
| 3 days | 25 | 48% | −0.1% | −3.8% to +7.0% | −0.5% | +0.4% | 91% | 14 |
| 7 days | 25 | 56% | +1.5% | −4.4% to +8.1% | −1.1% | +2.6% | 66% | 44 |
| 14 days | 24 | 63% | +4.2% | −3.2% to +16.7% | −2.6% | +6.9% | 38% | 48 |
| 30 days | 24 | 50% | 0.0% | −8.6% to +16.3% | −3.3% | +3.2% | 92% | 40 |
“Ordinary median” is the median move of XLM over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 21%).
Holding it for 7 days
Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.
Did it hold up over time?
Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 15 the gap over 7 days was +0.7%, and in the later 10 it was +4.1%. Same direction both times.
Every occurrence
One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.
| Date | Close | +1d | +7d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Nov 2026 | $0.1512 | −3.2% | −10.4% | open |
| 19 May 2026 | $0.1436 | +0.2% | +2.9% | +63.3% |
| 30 Jan 2026 | $0.1919 | −5.7% | −14.4% | −19.7% |
| 10 Oct 2025 | $0.3191 | +1.2% | −3.3% | −10.4% |
| 6 Apr 2025 | $0.2263 | +2.6% | +5.2% | +16.1% |
| 10 Mar 2025 | $0.2418 | +5.6% | +12.9% | +0.2% |
| 15 Jun 2023 | $0.07640 | +1.4% | +13.5% | +67.3% |
| 28 Dec 2022 | $0.07170 | +0.4% | +2.9% | +29.1% |
| 16 Dec 2022 | $0.07430 | +1.9% | +1.5% | +18.4% |
| 9 Nov 2022 | $0.08310 | +17.0% | +8.1% | +2.6% |
| 8 May 2022 | $0.1616 | −13.0% | −10.1% | −13.1% |
| 21 Jan 2022 | $0.2028 | −5.1% | −2.1% | −4.1% |
The 12 most recent. All 25 are in the open data file.
The rule
Close below the lowest low of the previous 90 days. A close below three months of lows is a standard trend-following exit, or a short entry.
Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.
The same signal on other coins
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Radworks | 23 | 65% | +5.8% | +6.7% | Weak evidence |
 Fetch.ai | 31 | 35% | −6.8% | −5.6% | Weak evidence |
 Raydium | 22 | 23% | −8.0% | −7.1% | Weak evidence |
 DODO | 21 | 67% | +5.3% | +6.2% | Weak evidence |
 VeChain | 33 | 58% | +2.0% | +2.9% | Weak evidence |
 IOTA | 24 | 38% | −5.2% | −4.4% | Weak evidence |
 Ethereum Classic | 23 | 57% | +2.4% | +3.4% | Weak evidence |
 Amp | 34 | 21% | −3.4% | −1.1% | Weak evidence |
Breakdown to a 90-day low across all 94 coins
Other Stellar signals
New signals are sealed in the public ledger at the daily close. Members see them immediately; everyone else sees them a day later.
See today's signals