What happens to Stellar after a golden cross?

Since 2018, Stellar has shown a golden cross 12 times. In the 12 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 17% of the time, with a median move of −7.4%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for XLM is −1.1%.

Weak evidence46

There is a gap, but once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 35% of the time, so it should not be relied on.

Cases since 201812last on 20 Sep 2026

Higher after 7 days17%ordinary: 44%

Median 7-day move−7.4%ordinary: −1.1%

Could be luck35%allowing for 3,572 studies

Worst / best case−18% / +136%over 7 days

Median path after the signalMiddle half of casesOrdinary XLM drift

Price change relative to the close on the signal day. Based on the 12 cases with a full 30 days of history after them.

By holding period

After	Cases	Higher	Median move	Middle half	Ordinary median	Gap	By luck	Proof score
1 day	12	42%	−1.1%	−5.0% to +0.9%	0.0%	−1.1%	55%	39
3 days	12	42%	−1.7%	−6.8% to +3.2%	−0.5%	−1.2%	80%	36
7 days	12	17%	−7.4%	−11.8% to −2.4%	−1.1%	−6.2%	35%	46
14 days	12	42%	−2.7%	−10.8% to +6.7%	−2.6%	0.0%	100%	6
30 days	12	25%	−12.5%	−20.5% to −3.1%	−3.3%	−9.2%	72%	41

“Ordinary median” is the median move of XLM over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 3.8%).

Holding it for 7 days

Typical dip on the way−13.5%ordinary XLM: −7.1%

1 case in 4 dipped past−16.2%before day 7

Fell 10% or more on the way75%ordinary: 35%

Typical best point+4.1%highest price within 7 days

Median after costs−7.7%ordinary: −1.4%

Ahead after costs17%ordinary: 43%

Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.

Did it hold up over time?

Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 7 the gap over 7 days was −6.6%, and in the later 5 it was −1.9%. Same direction both times.

Every occurrence

One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.

Date	Close	+1d	+7d	+30d
20 Sep 2026	$0.1972	+9.3%	+9.4%	−7.7%
23 Jun 2026	$0.1952	−5.0%	−3.1%	−6.6%
25 Jul 2025	$0.4313	+0.9%	−11.4%	−5.4%
16 Nov 2024	$0.2207	−11.0%	+136.4%	+89.7%
11 Mar 2024	$0.1576	−5.3%	−14.5%	−17.7%
2 Jul 2023	$0.1073	−1.3%	−7.7%	+43.2%
15 Apr 2023	$0.1064	+0.8%	−10.2%	−17.3%
16 Nov 2021	$0.3429	+1.0%	−0.5%	−25.5%
24 Nov 2020	$0.1957	−1.4%	−6.1%	−19.2%
17 May 2020	$0.06873	+2.2%	−7.0%	+3.8%
21 Feb 2020	$0.07099	−1.0%	−17.7%	−48.2%
2 Jun 2019	$0.1364	−6.4%	−13.2%	−24.6%

The 12 most recent. All 12 are in the open data file.

The rule

50-day moving average closes above the 200-day moving average after being below it. The 50-day average crossing above the 200-day average is one of the most publicised bullish signals in any market.

Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.

Other Stellar signals

30% rise in 7 daysStrong evidence · 28 cases RSI drops below 30Strong evidence · 30 cases 10% drop in a dayStrong evidence · 44 cases 15% drop in 7 daysWeak evidence · 59 cases 7% drop in a dayWeak evidence · 97 cases Volume spike on a green dayWeak evidence · 44 cases

Full Stellar record

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