Stellar · XLM/USDT · daily
What happens to Stellar after a 20% weekly drop?
Since 2018, Stellar has shown a 20% weekly drop 33 times. In the 31 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 61% of the time, with a median move of +1.6%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for XLM is −1.1%.
Weak evidence48
There is a gap, but once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 58% of the time, so it should not be relied on.
By holding period
| After | Cases | Higher | Median move | Middle half | Ordinary median | Gap | By luck | Proof score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 31 | 74% | +4.0% | +0.4% to +6.7% | 0.0% | +4.0% | 0.3% | 96 |
| 3 days | 31 | 68% | +3.6% | −1.3% to +9.5% | −0.5% | +4.0% | 4.5% | 96 |
| 7 days | 31 | 61% | +1.6% | −4.8% to +7.0% | −1.1% | +2.8% | 58% | 48 |
| 14 days | 31 | 74% | +6.6% | −2.7% to +9.2% | −2.6% | +9.2% | 12% | 81 |
| 30 days | 31 | 35% | −4.1% | −14.9% to +2.4% | −3.3% | −0.8% | 97% | 16 |
“Ordinary median” is the median move of XLM over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 15%).
Holding it for 7 days
Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.
Did it hold up over time?
Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 18 the gap over 7 days was +3.6%, and in the later 13 it was +2.2%. Same direction both times.
Every occurrence
One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.
| Date | Close | +1d | +7d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jun 2026 | $0.1789 | −0.6% | +11.4% | −0.4% |
| 5 Jun 2026 | $0.2033 | +4.3% | −7.5% | 0.0% |
| 5 Feb 2026 | $0.1471 | +11.6% | +6.3% | +2.2% |
| 10 Oct 2025 | $0.3191 | +1.2% | −3.3% | −10.4% |
| 9 Mar 2025 | $0.2630 | −8.1% | −0.2% | −15.9% |
| 6 Feb 2025 | $0.3182 | +2.7% | +5.9% | −13.3% |
| 9 Dec 2024 | $0.4103 | +6.4% | +2.0% | +3.7% |
| 9 Nov 2022 | $0.08310 | +17.0% | +8.1% | +2.6% |
| 13 Jun 2022 | $0.1068 | +5.5% | +5.9% | −1.3% |
| 11 May 2022 | $0.1264 | −4.6% | +1.0% | +5.3% |
| 21 Jan 2022 | $0.2028 | −5.1% | −2.1% | −4.1% |
| 10 Dec 2021 | $0.2606 | +5.4% | −2.6% | +0.1% |
The 12 most recent. All 33 are in the open data file.
The rule
Close at least 20% below the close seven days earlier. Losing a fifth of the price in a week is a washout by most standards, and a common entry point for contrarians.
Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.
The same signal on other coins
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Cosmos | 37 | 70% | +7.5% | +8.4% | Strong evidence · leans up |
 JUST | 23 | 61% | +7.0% | +6.4% | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Uniswap | 36 | 75% | +6.9% | +7.4% | Strong evidence · leans up |
 DeXe | 29 | 66% | +6.3% | +6.5% | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Ravencoin | 40 | 63% | +4.1% | +5.4% | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Request | 23 | 61% | +4.8% | +5.3% | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Basic Attention Token | 40 | 65% | +5.0% | +5.2% | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Litecoin | 37 | 70% | +4.4% | +4.6% | Some evidence · leans up |
20% drop in a week across all 94 coins
Other Stellar signals
New signals are sealed in the public ledger at the daily close. Members see them immediately; everyone else sees them a day later.
See today's signals