Solana · SOL/USDT · daily
What happens to Solana after a 100% rise in 30 days?
Since 2020, Solana has shown a 100% rise in 30 days 23 times. In the 23 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 74% of the time, with a median move of +14.2%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for SOL is −0.3%.
Some evidence · leans up67
Even after allowing for every study on this site, a gap that size is luck about 3.1% of the time. The lean is upward.
By holding period
| After | Cases | Higher | Median move | Middle half | Ordinary median | Gap | By luck | Proof score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 23 | 61% | +1.2% | −2.2% to +10.1% | 0.0% | +1.3% | 45% | 18 |
| 3 days | 23 | 70% | +10.4% | −1.5% to +22.8% | 0.0% | +10.4% | 0.7% | 67 |
| 7 days | 23 | 74% | +14.2% | 0.0% to +30.8% | −0.3% | +14.5% | 3.1% | 67 |
| 14 days | 23 | 78% | +16.0% | +2.7% to +58.0% | −0.2% | +16.2% | 8.9% | 84 |
| 30 days | 23 | 74% | +48.2% | +6.7% to +99.2% | +0.4% | +47.8% | 2.0% | 92 |
“Ordinary median” is the median move of SOL over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: under 0.1%).
Holding it for 7 days
Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.
Did it hold up over time?
Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 13 the gap over 7 days was +17.7%, and in the later 10 it was −0.3%. The direction changed, which is what a pattern produced by chance tends to do.
Every occurrence
One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.
| Date | Close | +1d | +7d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Dec 2023 | $120.9 | −7.0% | −9.1% | −26.6% |
| 16 Nov 2023 | $57.80 | +1.2% | −2.2% | +27.5% |
| 9 Nov 2023 | $45.29 | +25.1% | +27.6% | +59.6% |
| 27 Jan 2023 | $24.43 | −1.8% | +1.1% | −4.8% |
| 20 Jan 2023 | $25.51 | −3.7% | −4.2% | −2.6% |
| 23 Sep 2021 | $149.9 | −7.2% | −5.7% | +31.9% |
| 12 Sep 2021 | $174.3 | −2.7% | −12.4% | −12.6% |
| 5 Sep 2021 | $142.0 | +15.6% | +22.7% | +15.9% |
| 29 Aug 2021 | $94.23 | +17.0% | +50.7% | +40.3% |
| 22 Aug 2021 | $72.78 | +3.9% | +29.5% | +70.8% |
| 15 Aug 2021 | $53.53 | +15.9% | +35.9% | +196.8% |
| 29 Apr 2021 | $42.48 | +0.7% | +2.4% | −35.5% |
The 12 most recent. All 23 are in the open data file.
The rule
Close at least 100% above the close 30 days earlier.
Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.
The same signal on other coins
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Fetch.ai | 33 | 70% | +10.3% | +11.5% | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Axie Infinity | 26 | 65% | +8.9% | +10.2% | Strong evidence · leans up |
 THORChain | 22 | 68% | +8.7% | +9.1% | Some evidence · leans up |
 Injective | 28 | 57% | +6.8% | +6.9% | Weak evidence |
 Horizen | 23 | 48% | −3.3% | −2.6% | Weak evidence |
 Avalanche | 21 | 48% | −2.5% | −1.8% | Weak evidence |
 Stacks | 22 | 36% | −2.3% | −1.6% | Weak evidence |
 Theta Network | 22 | 55% | +1.1% | +1.7% | Weak evidence |
100% rise in 30 days across all 94 coins
Other Solana signals
New signals are sealed in the public ledger at the daily close. Members see them immediately; everyone else sees them a day later.
See today's signals