After a 30% rise in 7 days: what happened next, coin by coin
We counted every time it happened on 94 major coins, 2,252 scored cases in all, and measured the following 7 days against each coin's ordinary behaviour.
Coins with evidence15 of 902 lean up · 13 lean down
No better than chance49 of 90coins
Scored cases2,252since 2017
The rule. Close at least 30% above the close 7 days earlier.
Coin by coin
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | Gap | By luck | Proof score | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 DODO | 24 | 29% | −12.9% | −0.8% | −12.0% | 3.1% | 92 | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Stellar | 28 | 61% | +5.7% | −1.1% | +6.9% | 6.8% | 90 | Strong evidence · leans up |
 TRON | 17 | 35% | −10.0% | +0.7% | −10.7% | 1.9% | 89 | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Audius | 33 | 33% | −8.2% | −1.2% | −7.0% | 8.8% | 89 | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Conflux | 29 | 34% | −10.3% | −1.6% | −8.8% | 8.5% | 88 | Strong evidence · leans down |
 JUST | 12 | 17% | −14.3% | +0.6% | −14.9% | 1.9% | 86 | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Radworks | 11 | 9% | −15.8% | −0.9% | −15.0% | 2.8% | 86 | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Request | 12 | 0% | −19.2% | −0.5% | −18.7% | 1.9% | 86 | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Tellor | 42 | 40% | −8.1% | −0.4% | −7.7% | 12% | 84 | Strong evidence · leans down |
 AVA (Travala) | 22 | 32% | −9.1% | −0.4% | −8.7% | 8.4% | 84 | Strong evidence · leans down |
 1inch | 18 | 39% | −10.1% | −1.3% | −8.8% | 13% | 73 | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Immutable | 19 | 68% | +8.8% | −1.7% | +10.4% | 14% | 72 | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Livepeer | 27 | 33% | −9.0% | −1.7% | −7.2% | 18% | 67 | Some evidence · leans down |
 Horizen | 35 | 37% | −7.3% | −0.7% | −6.6% | 22% | 59 | Some evidence · leans down |
 Prom | 18 | 39% | −8.2% | −0.2% | −8.0% | 8.8% | 57 | Some evidence · leans down |
 Reserve Rights | 38 | 39% | −7.8% | −1.3% | −6.5% | 31% | 54 | Weak evidence |
 Lisk | 26 | 35% | −6.5% | −0.6% | −5.9% | 25% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 Fetch.ai | 60 | 57% | +2.3% | −1.2% | +3.5% | 52% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 dYdX | 21 | 24% | −10.0% | −1.7% | −8.3% | 26% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 Solana | 31 | 65% | +4.1% | −0.3% | +4.4% | 51% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Avalanche | 28 | 61% | +4.9% | −0.7% | +5.6% | 32% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Chiliz | 35 | 34% | −4.3% | −0.7% | −3.6% | 55% | 49 | Weak evidence |
| Floki | 19 | 32% | −9.6% | −1.9% | −7.8% | 30% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Gitcoin | 26 | 31% | −7.3% | −1.2% | −6.1% | 37% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Stacks | 40 | 53% | +0.9% | −0.6% | +1.5% | 87% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Cardano | 30 | 60% | +2.7% | −0.8% | +3.6% | 53% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 NEAR Protocol | 36 | 44% | −3.0% | −0.6% | −2.4% | 79% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Zcash | 36 | 56% | +2.4% | +0.1% | +2.3% | 77% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 COTI | 44 | 41% | −1.6% | −1.3% | −0.3% | 98% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Dogecoin | 27 | 44% | −3.3% | −1.0% | −2.3% | 69% | 44 | Weak evidence |
 Litecoin | 24 | 33% | −2.8% | −0.2% | −2.6% | 66% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 Sei | 16 | 50% | +2.7% | −2.2% | +4.9% | 60% | 42 | Weak evidence |
 Cosmos | 24 | 54% | +1.1% | −0.9% | +1.9% | 83% | 41 | Weak evidence |
 Quant | 14 | 57% | +2.0% | −1.3% | +3.4% | 61% | 41 | Weak evidence |
 Dash | 25 | 52% | +0.6% | −0.5% | +1.1% | 91% | 40 | Weak evidence |
 DeXe | 24 | 54% | +1.2% | −0.3% | +1.5% | 86% | 40 | Weak evidence |
 Phala Network | 17 | 41% | −10.8% | −1.5% | −9.3% | 17% | 39 | Weak evidence |
| Worldcoin | 23 | 39% | −3.9% | −2.7% | −1.2% | 93% | 38 | Weak evidence |
 Bitcoin | 15 | 60% | +1.9% | +0.5% | +1.4% | 83% | 37 | Weak evidence |
 Basic Attention Token | 20 | 55% | +0.5% | −0.1% | +0.6% | 96% | 36 | Weak evidence |
 BNB | 22 | 59% | +5.9% | +0.5% | +5.5% | 20% | 35 | Weak evidence |
 Arbitrum | 10 | 60% | +4.9% | −1.7% | +6.6% | 53% | 28 | No better than chance |
 Theta Network | 39 | 56% | +3.6% | −0.6% | +4.2% | 46% | 27 | No better than chance |
 THORChain | 45 | 42% | −3.2% | −0.3% | −2.9% | 64% | 25 | No better than chance |
 Curve DAO | 38 | 42% | −3.4% | −0.5% | −2.8% | 70% | 24 | No better than chance |
 Chainlink | 32 | 56% | +3.6% | +0.1% | +3.4% | 61% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Neo | 33 | 45% | −3.9% | −0.6% | −3.3% | 57% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Polkadot | 20 | 40% | −6.3% | −1.0% | −5.3% | 43% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Injective | 37 | 46% | −1.9% | −0.1% | −1.9% | 84% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Harmony | 44 | 50% | −0.4% | −1.3% | +0.9% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Arweave | 32 | 53% | +1.3% | −1.2% | +2.6% | 74% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Lido DAO | 21 | 52% | +4.2% | −1.2% | +5.4% | 53% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Axie Infinity | 35 | 46% | −2.8% | −1.2% | −1.6% | 87% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Aave | 28 | 54% | +2.9% | −0.1% | +2.9% | 74% | 19 | No better than chance |
 Algorand | 29 | 52% | +1.1% | −1.0% | +2.1% | 82% | 19 | No better than chance |
 The Sandbox | 34 | 47% | −0.4% | −1.3% | +0.9% | 92% | 19 | No better than chance |
 Ethereum Classic | 29 | 52% | +0.3% | −1.0% | +1.3% | 84% | 18 | No better than chance |
 Kava | 32 | 47% | −1.4% | −0.6% | −0.8% | 93% | 18 | No better than chance |
 Celestia | 14 | 29% | −9.6% | −2.7% | −6.9% | 55% | 18 | No better than chance |
 Beam | 10 | 40% | −2.4% | −0.5% | −1.9% | 93% | 18 | No better than chance |
 VeChain | 36 | 47% | −0.7% | −0.8% | +0.1% | 99% | 18 | No better than chance |
 Ravencoin | 26 | 46% | −3.6% | −1.3% | −2.2% | 74% | 18 | No better than chance |
 XRP | 23 | 57% | +1.2% | −0.8% | +1.9% | 75% | 17 | No better than chance |
 Amp | 13 | 46% | −6.0% | −2.2% | −3.8% | 55% | 17 | No better than chance |
 Uniswap | 29 | 52% | +0.4% | −0.4% | +0.8% | 94% | 16 | No better than chance |
 Aptos | 12 | 58% | +3.6% | −1.5% | +5.1% | 61% | 16 | No better than chance |
 Hedera | 27 | 44% | −2.3% | −1.2% | −1.1% | 91% | 16 | No better than chance |
 Raydium | 26 | 46% | −2.6% | −0.9% | −1.7% | 87% | 16 | No better than chance |
 Oasis | 28 | 39% | −2.7% | −1.4% | −1.3% | 91% | 16 | No better than chance |
 Filecoin | 20 | 55% | +1.5% | −1.1% | +2.5% | 77% | 15 | No better than chance |
 Shiba Inu | 13 | 46% | −4.9% | −1.5% | −3.4% | 68% | 15 | No better than chance |
 ApeCoin | 10 | 40% | −1.6% | −1.7% | +0.1% | 100% | 15 | No better than chance |
 IOTA | 28 | 46% | −0.2% | −0.8% | +0.6% | 95% | 15 | No better than chance |
 Bitcoin Cash | 19 | 53% | +1.5% | −0.2% | +1.7% | 84% | 14 | No better than chance |
 Pepe | 18 | 61% | +1.8% | −1.4% | +3.2% | 79% | 14 | No better than chance |
 PancakeSwap | 16 | 50% | +1.6% | −0.8% | +2.4% | 78% | 14 | No better than chance |
 ConstitutionDAO | 23 | 52% | +0.4% | −1.3% | +1.7% | 90% | 14 | No better than chance |
 The Graph | 22 | 45% | −3.3% | −1.8% | −1.5% | 91% | 14 | No better than chance |
| Convex Finance | 21 | 48% | −3.4% | −1.7% | −1.7% | 88% | 14 | No better than chance |
 Sun | 18 | 50% | −2.0% | −0.4% | −1.6% | 79% | 14 | No better than chance |
 Ethereum | 21 | 48% | −0.2% | +0.3% | −0.5% | 97% | 12 | No better than chance |
 Sui | 15 | 53% | +0.9% | −1.5% | +2.4% | 87% | 12 | No better than chance |
 Arkham | 17 | 29% | −4.4% | −2.5% | −1.9% | 90% | 12 | No better than chance |
 Optimism | 20 | 50% | −1.0% | −1.4% | +0.4% | 98% | 11 | No better than chance |
 Internet Computer | 19 | 42% | −2.2% | −1.3% | −0.8% | 96% | 11 | No better than chance |
 Ethereum Name Service | 17 | 47% | −2.1% | −1.1% | −1.0% | 94% | 11 | No better than chance |
 Gala | 20 | 35% | −3.2% | −3.0% | −0.2% | 99% | 10 | No better than chance |
 Pendle | 16 | 50% | −0.3% | −0.3% | 0.0% | 100% | 8 | No better than chance |
 Polymesh | 11 | 45% | −2.6% | −1.6% | −1.0% | 96% | 8 | No better than chance |
 ORDI | 11 | 45% | −1.8% | −1.9% | +0.2% | 100% | 6 | No better than chance |
 Terra Classic | 9 | 44% | −9.2% | −1.6% | −7.6% | 3.1% | Too few cases | |
 Cyber | 8 | 38% | −5.6% | −2.0% | −3.7% | 41% | Too few cases | |
 Nexo | 1 | 0% | −16.3% | −0.3% | – | – | Too few cases | |
 Memecoin | 9 | 33% | −11.2% | −3.4% | −7.8% | 11% | Too few cases |
With 94 coins tested, one or two would look convincing by luck alone. A signal that only “works” on a single coin deserves less trust than one that leans the same way on many. Method.