Breakout to a 90-day high: does it work in crypto?
A close above three months of highs is a standard trend-following entry. We counted every time it happened on 94 major coins, 1,741 scored cases in all, and measured the following 7 days against each coin's ordinary behaviour.
Coins with evidence10 of 769 lean up · 1 lean down
No better than chance37 of 76coins
Scored cases1,741since 2017
The rule. Close above the highest high of the previous 90 days.
Coin by coin
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | Gap | By luck | Proof score | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeChain | 34 | 65% | +7.8% | −0.8% | +8.7% | 4.6% | 97 | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Cardano | 32 | 66% | +8.7% | −0.8% | +9.5% | 2.8% | 96 | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Solana | 28 | 75% | +10.2% | −0.3% | +10.5% | 4.6% | 94 | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Algorand | 23 | 65% | +11.4% | −1.0% | +12.4% | 3.8% | 92 | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Fetch.ai | 32 | 69% | +9.5% | −1.2% | +10.7% | 8.2% | 90 | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Theta Network | 20 | 75% | +15.2% | −0.6% | +15.8% | 1.9% | 90 | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Nexo | 11 | 82% | +8.3% | −0.3% | +8.6% | 4.6% | 86 | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Bitcoin Cash | 26 | 27% | −6.1% | −0.2% | −5.9% | 18% | 67 | Some evidence · leans down |
 Hedera | 23 | 57% | +9.0% | −1.2% | +10.2% | 5.1% | 66 | Some evidence · leans up |
 Harmony | 23 | 61% | +7.9% | −1.3% | +9.2% | 21% | 59 | Some evidence · leans up |
 TRON | 44 | 43% | −1.3% | +0.7% | −2.0% | 38% | 53 | Weak evidence |
 Avalanche | 20 | 80% | +7.2% | −0.7% | +8.0% | 25% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 Bitcoin | 58 | 59% | +1.7% | +0.5% | +1.2% | 66% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Stacks | 28 | 36% | −6.2% | −0.6% | −5.6% | 37% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Oasis | 17 | 59% | +8.8% | −1.4% | +10.2% | 25% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Ethereum | 49 | 61% | +1.7% | +0.3% | +1.4% | 78% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Aave | 18 | 61% | +7.7% | −0.1% | +7.7% | 33% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Chainlink | 40 | 45% | −0.7% | +0.1% | −0.9% | 93% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Kava | 18 | 61% | +6.0% | −0.6% | +6.6% | 33% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 BNB | 51 | 45% | −3.1% | +0.5% | −3.6% | 17% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Reserve Rights | 24 | 42% | −7.0% | −1.3% | −5.7% | 53% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Lisk | 16 | 63% | +5.3% | −0.6% | +5.9% | 38% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 JUST | 28 | 43% | −1.3% | +0.6% | −2.0% | 68% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 Ethereum Name Service | 13 | 31% | −7.7% | −1.1% | −6.6% | 48% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 Neo | 25 | 56% | +3.0% | −0.6% | +3.6% | 61% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 Polkadot | 19 | 58% | +3.5% | −1.0% | +4.5% | 58% | 44 | Weak evidence |
 Pendle | 19 | 68% | +5.4% | −0.3% | +5.7% | 59% | 44 | Weak evidence |
 Curve DAO | 21 | 43% | −5.6% | −0.5% | −5.1% | 58% | 44 | Weak evidence |
 Filecoin | 15 | 53% | +3.9% | −1.1% | +5.0% | 56% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 Arweave | 15 | 53% | +5.0% | −1.2% | +6.3% | 53% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 Dash | 27 | 56% | +1.3% | −0.5% | +1.8% | 80% | 42 | Weak evidence |
 IOTA | 24 | 54% | +1.2% | −0.8% | +2.0% | 81% | 41 | Weak evidence |
 Axie Infinity | 18 | 61% | +1.9% | −1.2% | +3.1% | 77% | 40 | Weak evidence |
 Quant | 12 | 50% | +1.5% | −1.3% | +2.8% | 73% | 39 | Weak evidence |
| Worldcoin | 12 | 25% | −6.9% | −2.7% | −4.1% | 78% | 38 | Weak evidence |
 Lido DAO | 13 | 38% | −4.1% | −1.2% | −2.9% | 86% | 37 | Weak evidence |
 Tellor | 16 | 38% | −2.8% | −0.4% | −2.4% | 89% | 37 | Weak evidence |
 Aptos | 15 | 33% | −3.2% | −1.5% | −1.7% | 91% | 36 | Weak evidence |
 Zcash | 39 | 56% | +6.1% | +0.1% | +6.0% | 22% | 36 | Weak evidence |
 Gala | 12 | 42% | −2.0% | −3.0% | +0.9% | 97% | 33 | No better than chance |
 1inch | 15 | 47% | −1.2% | −1.3% | +0.1% | 99% | 33 | No better than chance |
| Convex Finance | 11 | 55% | +10.6% | −1.7% | +12.3% | 20% | 31 | No better than chance |
 Pepe | 10 | 50% | +2.7% | −1.4% | +4.1% | 80% | 22 | No better than chance |
 The Graph | 15 | 53% | +5.6% | −1.8% | +7.4% | 39% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Litecoin | 38 | 50% | 0.0% | −0.2% | +0.2% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Conflux | 13 | 46% | −9.1% | −1.6% | −7.6% | 44% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Basic Attention Token | 25 | 40% | −3.7% | −0.1% | −3.5% | 58% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Uniswap | 26 | 42% | −3.6% | −0.4% | −3.2% | 69% | 19 | No better than chance |
 Beam | 10 | 70% | +2.1% | −0.5% | +2.6% | 89% | 19 | No better than chance |
 Dogecoin | 18 | 56% | +2.2% | −1.0% | +3.2% | 61% | 17 | No better than chance |
 Stellar | 18 | 50% | +2.1% | −1.1% | +3.2% | 63% | 17 | No better than chance |
 Prom | 10 | 50% | +0.5% | −0.2% | +0.6% | 96% | 17 | No better than chance |
 THORChain | 32 | 50% | +0.1% | −0.3% | +0.4% | 98% | 17 | No better than chance |
 Sun | 13 | 54% | +3.0% | −0.4% | +3.4% | 58% | 17 | No better than chance |
 XRP | 21 | 52% | +1.2% | −0.8% | +1.9% | 77% | 16 | No better than chance |
 Arbitrum | 13 | 46% | −6.5% | −1.7% | −4.8% | 63% | 16 | No better than chance |
 Sui | 17 | 65% | +2.6% | −1.5% | +4.1% | 65% | 16 | No better than chance |
 Injective | 24 | 46% | −2.8% | −0.1% | −2.8% | 79% | 16 | No better than chance |
 Ethereum Classic | 24 | 50% | 0.0% | −1.0% | +1.0% | 89% | 15 | No better than chance |
 Optimism | 11 | 64% | +3.8% | −1.4% | +5.2% | 70% | 15 | No better than chance |
 Chiliz | 24 | 50% | +1.1% | −0.7% | +1.8% | 86% | 15 | No better than chance |
 Immutable | 14 | 57% | +2.6% | −1.7% | +4.3% | 72% | 15 | No better than chance |
 Cosmos | 24 | 50% | +0.2% | −0.9% | +1.0% | 93% | 14 | No better than chance |
 Shiba Inu | 13 | 46% | −4.6% | −1.5% | −3.1% | 71% | 14 | No better than chance |
 COTI | 26 | 46% | −2.0% | −1.3% | −0.8% | 96% | 14 | No better than chance |
 Ravencoin | 18 | 44% | −3.5% | −1.3% | −2.2% | 80% | 14 | No better than chance |
 NEAR Protocol | 24 | 46% | −1.3% | −0.6% | −0.7% | 97% | 13 | No better than chance |
 Horizen | 20 | 55% | +0.3% | −0.7% | +1.0% | 95% | 12 | No better than chance |
 DeXe | 16 | 50% | +1.5% | −0.3% | +1.8% | 86% | 12 | No better than chance |
 PancakeSwap | 16 | 50% | −2.1% | −0.8% | −1.3% | 91% | 11 | No better than chance |
 The Sandbox | 19 | 42% | −0.7% | −1.3% | +0.7% | 96% | 11 | No better than chance |
 Raydium | 15 | 47% | −1.6% | −0.9% | −0.7% | 97% | 9 | No better than chance |
 Sei | 12 | 33% | −3.2% | −2.2% | −0.9% | 96% | 8 | No better than chance |
 Internet Computer | 13 | 46% | −1.5% | −1.3% | −0.2% | 99% | 7 | No better than chance |
 Audius | 13 | 46% | −1.0% | −1.2% | +0.2% | 99% | 7 | No better than chance |
 AVA (Travala) | 12 | 50% | −0.4% | −0.4% | +0.1% | 100% | 6 | No better than chance |
 Celestia | 4 | 50% | −4.0% | −2.7% | −1.3% | 87% | Too few cases | |
 DODO | 5 | 80% | +13.4% | −0.8% | +14.2% | 4.4% | Too few cases | |
 ApeCoin | 5 | 40% | −3.2% | −1.7% | −1.5% | 80% | Too few cases | |
 ORDI | 3 | 0% | −15.3% | −1.9% | −13.4% | 14% | Too few cases | |
 Terra Classic | 8 | 75% | +12.5% | −1.6% | +14.1% | 0.1% | Too few cases | |
 Cyber | 4 | 25% | −13.8% | −2.0% | −11.8% | 7.7% | Too few cases | |
 Amp | 8 | 50% | −1.4% | −2.2% | +0.9% | 75% | Too few cases | |
 ConstitutionDAO | 7 | 29% | −13.6% | −1.3% | −12.3% | 4.2% | Too few cases | |
 dYdX | 9 | 33% | −3.4% | −1.7% | −1.7% | 72% | Too few cases | |
 Arkham | 7 | 57% | +2.3% | −2.5% | +4.8% | 38% | Too few cases | |
 Phala Network | 8 | 63% | +14.6% | −1.5% | +16.1% | 0.2% | Too few cases | |
| Floki | 7 | 71% | +8.7% | −1.9% | +10.6% | 6.5% | Too few cases | |
 Radworks | 8 | 0% | −13.5% | −0.9% | −12.6% | 0.2% | Too few cases | |
 Memecoin | 3 | 33% | −9.3% | −3.4% | −5.9% | 43% | Too few cases | |
 Gitcoin | 9 | 67% | +19.2% | −1.2% | +20.4% | under 0.1% | Too few cases | |
 Request | 8 | 25% | −19.2% | −0.5% | −18.7% | under 0.1% | Too few cases | |
 Livepeer | 9 | 56% | +1.5% | −1.7% | +3.2% | 50% | Too few cases | |
 Polymesh | 8 | 63% | +9.4% | −1.6% | +11.0% | 1.8% | Too few cases |
With 94 coins tested, one or two would look convincing by luck alone. A signal that only “works” on a single coin deserves less trust than one that leans the same way on many. Method.