Cardano · ADA/USDT · daily
What happens to Cardano after a breakout to a 90-day high?
Since 2018, Cardano has shown a breakout to a 90-day high 32 times. In the 32 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 66% of the time, with a median move of +8.7%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for ADA is −0.8%.
Strong evidence · leans up96
Even after allowing for every study on this site, a gap that size is luck about 2.8% of the time and it pointed the same way in the earlier and the later part of the history. The lean is upward.
By holding period
| After | Cases | Higher | Median move | Middle half | Ordinary median | Gap | By luck | Proof score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 32 | 59% | +1.0% | −1.3% to +4.2% | −0.1% | +1.1% | 39% | 48 |
| 3 days | 32 | 59% | +2.4% | −3.6% to +8.3% | −0.3% | +2.6% | 29% | 50 |
| 7 days | 32 | 66% | +8.7% | −6.8% to +24.5% | −0.8% | +9.5% | 2.8% | 96 |
| 14 days | 32 | 63% | +10.4% | −5.8% to +28.0% | −1.1% | +11.5% | 8.2% | 90 |
| 30 days | 32 | 53% | +1.4% | −13.4% to +28.6% | −3.1% | +4.6% | 84% | 20 |
“Ordinary median” is the median move of ADA over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: under 0.1%).
Holding it for 7 days
Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.
Did it hold up over time?
Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 19 the gap over 7 days was +17.9%, and in the later 13 it was +1.3%. Same direction both times.
Every occurrence
One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.
| Date | Close | +1d | +7d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Oct 2026 | $0.2704 | −1.1% | −13.8% | −27.0% |
| 2 Dec 2024 | $1.20 | −0.9% | −16.5% | −23.3% |
| 22 Nov 2024 | $1.02 | +4.7% | +5.7% | −13.2% |
| 15 Nov 2024 | $0.7071 | +4.9% | +43.9% | +55.5% |
| 8 Nov 2024 | $0.4447 | +11.7% | +59.0% | +168.4% |
| 1 Mar 2024 | $0.7195 | +3.1% | +0.5% | −9.6% |
| 13 Dec 2023 | $0.6675 | −3.6% | −11.7% | −18.0% |
| 5 Dec 2023 | $0.4257 | +4.0% | +35.9% | +33.9% |
| 1 Nov 2023 | $0.3071 | +5.2% | +16.5% | +25.2% |
| 13 Apr 2023 | $0.4251 | +3.1% | −5.7% | −14.2% |
| 15 Feb 2023 | $0.4190 | −7.5% | −7.2% | −16.6% |
| 19 Aug 2021 | $2.44 | +0.6% | +3.6% | −2.9% |
The 12 most recent. All 32 are in the open data file.
The rule
Close above the highest high of the previous 90 days. A close above three months of highs is a standard trend-following entry.
Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.
The same signal on other coins
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeChain | 34 | 65% | +7.8% | +8.7% | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Solana | 28 | 75% | +10.2% | +10.5% | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Algorand | 23 | 65% | +11.4% | +12.4% | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Fetch.ai | 32 | 69% | +9.5% | +10.7% | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Theta Network | 20 | 75% | +15.2% | +15.8% | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Bitcoin Cash | 26 | 27% | −6.1% | −5.9% | Some evidence · leans down |
 Hedera | 23 | 57% | +9.0% | +10.2% | Some evidence · leans up |
 Harmony | 23 | 61% | +7.9% | +9.2% | Some evidence · leans up |
Breakout to a 90-day high across all 94 coins
Other Cardano signals
New signals are sealed in the public ledger at the daily close. Members see them immediately; everyone else sees them a day later.
See today's signals