ApeCoin · APE/USDT · daily
What happens to ApeCoin after a breakout to a 90-day high?
Since 2022, ApeCoin has shown a breakout to a 90-day high 5 times. In the 5 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 40% of the time, with a median move of −3.2%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for APE is −1.7%.
Too few cases
With 5 completed cases there is not enough history to judge this one.
By holding period
| After | Cases | Higher | Median move | Middle half | Ordinary median | Gap | By luck | Proof score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 5 | 60% | +1.0% | −2.2% to +2.7% | −0.2% | +1.3% | 55% | |
| 3 days | 5 | 20% | −3.9% | −6.4% to −2.2% | −0.6% | −3.2% | 36% | |
| 7 days | 5 | 40% | −3.2% | −24.2% to +0.3% | −1.7% | −1.5% | 80% | |
| 14 days | 5 | 40% | −4.7% | −21.6% to +5.0% | −4.6% | −0.2% | 98% | |
| 30 days | 5 | 40% | −14.1% | −23.9% to +0.5% | −9.6% | −4.6% | 74% |
“Ordinary median” is the median move of APE over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 80%).
Holding it for 7 days
Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.
Every occurrence
One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.
| Date | Close | +1d | +7d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Dec 2024 | $1.89 | +2.7% | −24.6% | −33.6% |
| 20 Oct 2024 | $1.49 | +5.3% | −24.2% | −23.9% |
| 26 Feb 2024 | $1.99 | −2.2% | +18.8% | +0.5% |
| 25 Nov 2023 | $1.69 | −3.1% | −3.2% | +6.3% |
| 25 Jan 2023 | $6.03 | +1.0% | +0.3% | −14.1% |
The 12 most recent. All 5 are in the open data file.
The rule
Close above the highest high of the previous 90 days. A close above three months of highs is a standard trend-following entry.
Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.
The same signal on other coins
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeChain | 34 | 65% | +7.8% | +8.7% | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Cardano | 32 | 66% | +8.7% | +9.5% | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Solana | 28 | 75% | +10.2% | +10.5% | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Algorand | 23 | 65% | +11.4% | +12.4% | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Fetch.ai | 32 | 69% | +9.5% | +10.7% | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Theta Network | 20 | 75% | +15.2% | +15.8% | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Bitcoin Cash | 26 | 27% | −6.1% | −5.9% | Some evidence · leans down |
 Hedera | 23 | 57% | +9.0% | +10.2% | Some evidence · leans up |
Breakout to a 90-day high across all 94 coins
Other ApeCoin signals
New signals are sealed in the public ledger at the daily close. Members see them immediately; everyone else sees them a day later.
See today's signals