Shiba Inu · SHIB/USDT · daily
What happens to Shiba Inu after a 5% drop in a day?
Since 2021, Shiba Inu has shown a 5% drop in a day 110 times. In the 106 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 37% of the time, with a median move of −4.2%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for SHIB is −1.5%.
Some evidence · leans down66
Even after allowing for every study on this site, a gap that size is luck about 18% of the time and it pointed the same way in the earlier and the later part of the history. The lean is downward.
By holding period
| After | Cases | Higher | Median move | Middle half | Ordinary median | Gap | By luck | Proof score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 106 | 57% | +0.6% | −2.3% to +2.7% | −0.2% | +0.7% | 21% | 59 |
| 3 days | 106 | 50% | +0.1% | −4.4% to +5.2% | −0.8% | +1.0% | 44% | 24 |
| 7 days | 106 | 37% | −4.2% | −8.5% to +3.0% | −1.5% | −2.7% | 18% | 66 |
| 14 days | 106 | 33% | −5.2% | −13.4% to +3.0% | −2.3% | −3.0% | 43% | 50 |
| 30 days | 105 | 35% | −8.5% | −20.0% to +8.1% | −4.4% | −4.1% | 63% | 50 |
“Ordinary median” is the median move of SHIB over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 0.8%).
Holding it for 7 days
Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.
Did it hold up over time?
Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 63 the gap over 7 days was −2.1%, and in the later 43 it was −3.6%. Same direction both times.
Every occurrence
One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.
| Date | Close | +1d | +7d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Oct 2026 | $0.00000463 | +3.9% | −2.6% | open |
| 7 Oct 2026 | $0.00000543 | −2.4% | −6.3% | −16.4% |
| 23 Sep 2026 | $0.00000564 | +2.3% | +2.1% | −11.7% |
| 15 Sep 2026 | $0.00000495 | +0.8% | +23.4% | +3.4% |
| 22 Aug 2026 | $0.00000545 | +1.8% | −5.5% | +11.0% |
| 27 Jul 2026 | $0.00000483 | −4.1% | +3.1% | +11.0% |
| 2 Jun 2026 | $0.00000518 | +0.4% | −9.8% | −17.0% |
| 15 Feb 2026 | $0.00000654 | +0.6% | −5.4% | −7.3% |
| 5 Feb 2026 | $0.00000562 | +12.5% | +7.7% | −5.3% |
| 29 Jan 2026 | $0.00000736 | −1.6% | −23.6% | −21.5% |
| 20 Jan 2026 | $0.00000773 | +3.4% | +1.3% | −19.7% |
| 18 Dec 2025 | $0.00000703 | +7.0% | +0.4% | +20.8% |
The 12 most recent. All 110 are in the open data file.
The rule
Close at least 5% below the close one day earlier.
Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.
The same signal on other coins
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Beam | 78 | 42% | −3.7% | −3.1% | Weak evidence |
 TRON | 119 | 58% | +1.7% | +1.0% | Weak evidence |
 Sui | 82 | 38% | −3.7% | −2.2% | Weak evidence |
 Internet Computer | 123 | 38% | −3.4% | −2.1% | Weak evidence |
 DeXe | 114 | 46% | −1.9% | −1.6% | Weak evidence |
 Prom | 74 | 51% | +1.4% | +1.6% | Weak evidence |
| Floki | 88 | 32% | −4.0% | −2.1% | Weak evidence |
 Celestia | 89 | 37% | −4.7% | −2.0% | Weak evidence |
5% drop in a day across all 94 coins
Other Shiba Inu signals
New signals are sealed in the public ledger at the daily close. Members see them immediately; everyone else sees them a day later.
See today's signals