What happens to Prom after a 5% drop in a day?

Since 2023, Prom has shown a 5% drop in a day 77 times. In the 74 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 51% of the time, with a median move of +1.4%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for PROM is −0.2%.

Weak evidence49

There is a gap, but once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 52% of the time, so it should not be relied on.

Cases since 202377last on 10 Nov 2026

Higher after 7 days51%ordinary: 49%

Median 7-day move+1.4%ordinary: −0.2%

Could be luck52%allowing for 3,572 studies

Worst / best case−65% / +56%over 7 days

Median path after the signalMiddle half of casesOrdinary PROM drift

Price change relative to the close on the signal day. Based on the 73 cases with a full 30 days of history after them.

By holding period

After	Cases	Higher	Median move	Middle half	Ordinary median	Gap	By luck	Proof score
1 day	75	51%	+0.1%	−3.6% to +3.3%	0.0%	+0.1%	90%	21
3 days	75	49%	−0.4%	−5.6% to +5.2%	0.0%	−0.3%	88%	21
7 days	74	51%	+1.4%	−7.4% to +9.6%	−0.2%	+1.6%	52%	49
14 days	74	50%	+0.2%	−8.0% to +10.0%	+0.3%	−0.2%	99%	20
30 days	72	50%	+0.1%	−14.4% to +10.7%	−0.1%	+0.2%	98%	20

“Ordinary median” is the median move of PROM over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 10%).

Holding it for 7 days

Typical dip on the way−10.1%ordinary PROM: −7.1%

1 case in 4 dipped past−17.1%before day 7

Fell 10% or more on the way50%ordinary: 36%

Typical best point+12.0%highest price within 7 days

Median after costs+1.1%ordinary: −0.5%

Ahead after costs51%ordinary: 47%

Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.

Did it hold up over time?

Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 44 the gap over 7 days was +1.0%, and in the later 30 it was +1.6%. Same direction both times.

Every occurrence

One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.

Date	Close	+1d	+7d	+30d
10 Nov 2026	$4.85	−4.9%	open	open
24 Oct 2026	$5.39	+1.4%	+4.7%	open
16 Oct 2026	$4.87	+2.7%	+16.8%	open
6 Oct 2026	$5.06	+7.1%	+1.3%	+5.3%
29 Sep 2026	$5.96	+8.2%	−15.1%	−8.4%
18 Sep 2026	$5.07	+4.5%	+18.3%	−6.6%
9 Sep 2026	$5.64	−4.0%	−3.1%	−7.0%
30 Aug 2026	$6.46	−16.2%	−15.1%	−7.7%
15 Aug 2026	$2.18	−1.1%	+21.1%	+162.4%
8 Aug 2026	$1.94	+6.0%	+12.4%	+189.9%
30 Jul 2026	$1.70	−4.2%	+17.7%	+304.9%
21 Jul 2026	$1.52	+0.3%	+36.9%	+46.0%

The 12 most recent. All 77 are in the open data file.

The rule

Close at least 5% below the close one day earlier.

Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.

The same signal on other coins

Coin	Cases	Higher after 7d	Median	Gap	Verdict
Shiba Inu	106	37%	−4.2%	−2.7%	Some evidence · leans down
Beam	78	42%	−3.7%	−3.1%	Weak evidence
TRON	119	58%	+1.7%	+1.0%	Weak evidence
Sui	82	38%	−3.7%	−2.2%	Weak evidence
Internet Computer	123	38%	−3.4%	−2.1%	Weak evidence
DeXe	114	46%	−1.9%	−1.6%	Weak evidence
Floki	88	32%	−4.0%	−2.1%	Weak evidence
Celestia	89	37%	−4.7%	−2.0%	Weak evidence

5% drop in a day across all 94 coins

Other Prom signals

15% drop in 3 daysStrong evidence · 29 cases 7% drop in a dayStrong evidence · 52 cases 15% drop in 7 daysSome evidence · 35 cases 5% rise in a dayWeak evidence · 68 cases Extreme sell pressureWeak evidence · 25 cases 10% drop in a dayWeak evidence · 27 cases

Full Prom record

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