Shiba Inu signals: which ones have held up
19 common signals tested on every daily SHIB candle since 10 May 2021 (2,015 days). 1 signal show evidence of an effect on the following week. 11 signals did no better than picking days at random.
SHIB price · last close$0.0000038414 Nov 2026 close: $0.00000384 (7d −14.7%)
RSI (14)23.4under 30
Volume vs 30-day average1.94×3× or more is a spike
Market buys, share of volume46.8%above 50%: buyers lifting offers
From all-time high−96%below the 200-day average
Trading signals, ranked by evidence
| Signal | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10% jump in a day | 44 | 23% | −6.4% | −1.5% | 8.6% | 90 | Strong evidence · leans down | 21 Sep 2026 |
| Volume spike on a green day | 34 | 38% | −4.3% | −1.5% | 53% | 49 | Weak evidence | 22 Sep 2026 |
| Five red days in a row | 27 | 37% | −4.2% | −1.5% | 61% | 45 | Weak evidence | 9 Aug 2026 |
| 10% drop in a day | 31 | 52% | +0.1% | −1.5% | 79% | 44 | Weak evidence | 5 Feb 2026 |
| Five green days in a row | 23 | 43% | −2.9% | −1.5% | 87% | 40 | Weak evidence | 15 Jun 2026 |
| Capitulation: heavy drop on heavy volume | 13 | 54% | +0.1% | −1.5% | 89% | 36 | Weak evidence | 22 Aug 2026 |
| Extreme buy pressure | 46 | 39% | −1.2% | −1.5% | 97% | 21 | No better than chance | 4 Oct 2026 |
| Extreme sell pressure | 56 | 41% | −2.0% | −1.5% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance | 2 Nov 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | 37 | 35% | −2.0% | −1.5% | 95% | 20 | No better than chance | 23 Oct 2026 |
| Volume spike on a red day | 21 | 62% | +1.9% | −1.5% | 58% | 19 | No better than chance | 27 Jul 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | 31 | 45% | −0.7% | −1.5% | 93% | 18 | No better than chance | 4 Oct 2026 |
| 20% drop in a week | 23 | 61% | +0.4% | −1.5% | 80% | 16 | No better than chance | 5 Feb 2026 |
| RSI drops below 30 | 21 | 52% | +0.1% | −1.5% | 84% | 15 | No better than chance | 24 Jun 2026 |
| Breakout to a 90-day high | 13 | 46% | −4.6% | −1.5% | 71% | 14 | No better than chance | 21 Aug 2026 |
| RSI rises above 70 | 20 | 45% | −2.6% | −1.5% | 92% | 13 | No better than chance | 21 Aug 2026 |
| Breakdown to a 90-day low | 15 | 47% | −1.9% | −1.5% | 98% | 9 | No better than chance | 2 Jun 2026 |
| Volatility squeeze | 18 | 33% | −1.4% | −1.5% | 100% | 9 | No better than chance | 13 Apr 2026 |
| Golden cross | 5 | 20% | −4.4% | −1.5% | 52% | Too few cases | 1 Oct 2026 | |
| Death cross | 5 | 20% | −5.8% | −1.5% | 36% | Too few cases | 6 Sep 2025 |
After drops and rallies
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5% rise in a day | 105 | 30% | −5.0% | −1.5% | 5.1% | 94 | Strong evidence · leans down | 18 Sep 2026 |
| 7% rise in a day | 69 | 32% | −5.8% | −1.5% | 6.8% | 92 | Strong evidence · leans down | 21 Sep 2026 |
| 5% drop in a day | 106 | 37% | −4.2% | −1.5% | 18% | 66 | Some evidence · leans down | 29 Oct 2026 |
| 20% rise in 7 days | 30 | 27% | −6.4% | −1.5% | 20% | 63 | Some evidence · leans down | 22 Sep 2026 |
| 10% rise in 3 days | 65 | 32% | −4.6% | −1.5% | 26% | 53 | Weak evidence | 18 Sep 2026 |
| 20% rise in 3 days | 22 | 32% | −7.0% | −1.5% | 25% | 50 | Weak evidence | 21 Aug 2026 |
| 10% drop in 3 days | 69 | 51% | +0.1% | −1.5% | 65% | 49 | Weak evidence | 29 Jul 2026 |
| 15% rise in a day | 24 | 25% | −6.1% | −1.5% | 34% | 49 | Weak evidence | 21 Aug 2026 |
| 30% drop in 30 days | 31 | 58% | +0.9% | −1.5% | 62% | 47 | Weak evidence | 10 Jun 2026 |
| 50% rise in 30 days | 19 | 42% | −6.6% | −1.5% | 34% | 47 | Weak evidence | 8 Dec 2024 |
| 100% rise in 30 days | 11 | 55% | +6.8% | −1.5% | 25% | 45 | Weak evidence | 30 Mar 2024 |
| 20% drop in 3 days | 11 | 82% | +0.7% | −1.5% | 84% | 36 | Weak evidence | 10 Oct 2025 |
| 15% drop in a day | 10 | 60% | +3.4% | −1.5% | 56% | 27 | No better than chance | 5 Feb 2026 |
| 7% drop in a day | 71 | 46% | −0.8% | −1.5% | 91% | 22 | No better than chance | 23 Sep 2026 |
| 15% drop in 7 days | 44 | 43% | −2.2% | −1.5% | 92% | 22 | No better than chance | 5 Jun 2026 |
| 15% drop in 3 days | 26 | 58% | +0.2% | −1.5% | 79% | 17 | No better than chance | 5 Feb 2026 |
| 30% rise in 7 days | 13 | 46% | −4.9% | −1.5% | 68% | 15 | No better than chance | 10 May 2025 |
| 40% drop in 30 days | 11 | 55% | +0.9% | −1.5% | 82% | 12 | No better than chance | 4 Jul 2024 |
| 30% drop in 7 days | 3 | 67% | +5.6% | −1.5% | 24% | Too few cases | 9 May 2022 | |
| 50% drop in 30 days | 6 | 67% | +5.2% | −1.5% | 11% | Too few cases | 3 Jun 2022 | |
| 50% rise in 7 days | 8 | 38% | −5.8% | −1.5% | 23% | Too few cases | 10 Nov 2024 |
When Bitcoin moves
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin drops 5% in a day | 50 | 40% | −3.1% | −1.5% | 71% | 49 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Bitcoin jumps 5% in a day | 58 | 43% | −1.0% | −1.5% | 95% | 21 | No better than chance | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 10% in a day | 8 | 63% | +2.7% | −1.5% | 24% | Too few cases | 5 Feb 2026 | |
| Bitcoin jumps 10% in a day | 9 | 33% | −7.3% | −1.5% | 10% | Too few cases | 6 Feb 2026 |
Returns are measured 7 days after the daily close that confirmed the signal. “Ordinary” is the median 7-day move from any day. How the proof score works.
Seen in the last 30 days
| Date | Signal | Close | +7d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov 2026 | Extreme sell pressure | $0.00000457 | −3.1% |
| 26 Oct 2026 | Extreme sell pressure | $0.00000489 | −6.5% |
| 23 Oct 2026 | Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | $0.00000498 | −3.4% |
Signals from the most recent daily close are sealed for a day and shown to members first.