What happens to DeXe after a 5% drop in a day?

Since 2021, DeXe has shown a 5% drop in a day 118 times. In the 114 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 46% of the time, with a median move of −1.9%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for DEXE is −0.3%.

Weak evidence49

There is a gap, but once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 55% of the time, so it should not be relied on.

Cases since 2021118last on 5 Nov 2026

Higher after 7 days46%ordinary: 49%

Median 7-day move−1.9%ordinary: −0.3%

Could be luck55%allowing for 3,572 studies

Worst / best case−52% / +77%over 7 days

Median path after the signalMiddle half of casesOrdinary DEXE drift

Price change relative to the close on the signal day. Based on the 115 cases with a full 30 days of history after them.

By holding period

After	Cases	Higher	Median move	Middle half	Ordinary median	Gap	By luck	Proof score
1 day	114	44%	−0.3%	−4.6% to +2.6%	0.0%	−0.3%	61%	47
3 days	114	43%	−1.3%	−5.4% to +4.6%	+0.1%	−1.4%	29%	50
7 days	114	46%	−1.9%	−6.7% to +6.5%	−0.3%	−1.6%	55%	49
14 days	113	42%	−2.4%	−13.9% to +10.9%	−1.1%	−1.3%	80%	47
30 days	112	42%	−3.8%	−18.1% to +14.0%	−3.1%	−0.7%	96%	21

“Ordinary median” is the median move of DEXE over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 13%).

Holding it for 7 days

Typical dip on the way−9.7%ordinary DEXE: −6.9%

1 case in 4 dipped past−16.1%before day 7

Fell 10% or more on the way46%ordinary: 35%

Typical best point+11.8%highest price within 7 days

Median after costs−2.2%ordinary: −0.6%

Ahead after costs45%ordinary: 47%

Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.

Did it hold up over time?

Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 68 the gap over 7 days was −1.1%, and in the later 46 it was −1.8%. Same direction both times.

Every occurrence

One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.

Date	Close	+1d	+7d	+30d
5 Nov 2026	$1.25	+4.5%	+1.7%	open
29 Oct 2026	$1.50	−0.3%	−16.8%	open
9 Sep 2026	$1.82	+5.2%	−0.1%	+2.9%
29 Aug 2026	$2.24	−6.4%	−11.1%	−17.0%
18 Aug 2026	$1.87	+2.6%	+0.1%	−3.1%
11 Aug 2026	$1.96	+4.1%	−4.6%	−2.4%
29 Jul 2026	$2.76	−14.6%	−18.5%	−10.6%
21 Jul 2026	$6.20	−28.5%	−51.8%	−68.6%
13 Jul 2026	$42.64	−2.8%	−16.8%	−95.2%
26 Jun 2026	$21.47	+3.2%	+6.6%	−83.2%
17 Jun 2026	$14.51	+5.3%	+54.1%	+151.2%
9 Jun 2026	$19.25	−6.4%	−4.2%	+45.5%

The 12 most recent. All 118 are in the open data file.

The rule

Close at least 5% below the close one day earlier.

Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.

The same signal on other coins

Coin	Cases	Higher after 7d	Median	Gap	Verdict
Shiba Inu	106	37%	−4.2%	−2.7%	Some evidence · leans down
Beam	78	42%	−3.7%	−3.1%	Weak evidence
TRON	119	58%	+1.7%	+1.0%	Weak evidence
Sui	82	38%	−3.7%	−2.2%	Weak evidence
Internet Computer	123	38%	−3.4%	−2.1%	Weak evidence
Prom	74	51%	+1.4%	+1.6%	Weak evidence
Floki	88	32%	−4.0%	−2.1%	Weak evidence
Celestia	89	37%	−4.7%	−2.0%	Weak evidence

5% drop in a day across all 94 coins

Other DeXe signals

20% drop in a weekStrong evidence · 29 cases 50% rise in 30 daysWeak evidence · 37 cases 15% drop in 7 daysWeak evidence · 54 cases 10% drop in a dayWeak evidence · 39 cases Volume spike on a green dayWeak evidence · 56 cases 15% drop in 3 daysWeak evidence · 42 cases

Full DeXe record

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