Polkadot · DOT/USDT · daily
What happens to Polkadot after Bitcoin drops 10% in a day?
Since 2020, Polkadot has shown Bitcoin drops 10% in a day 12 times. In the 11 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 64% of the time, with a median move of +0.6%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for DOT is −1.0%.
No better than chance34
Once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 93% of the time, so this signal has told you nothing reliable about the following week.
On the day itself, the median move was −14.3% for DOT against −12.0% for Bitcoin. DOT had the worse day 50% of the time. The figures below start from DOT's close on that day.
By holding period
| After | Cases | Higher | Median move | Middle half | Ordinary median | Gap | By luck | Proof score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 11 | 64% | +7.0% | −1.0% to +10.0% | −0.1% | +7.1% | 0.4% | 86 |
| 3 days | 11 | 73% | +3.3% | −3.6% to +6.9% | −0.4% | +3.7% | 45% | 42 |
| 7 days | 11 | 64% | +0.6% | −3.6% to +5.5% | −1.0% | +1.5% | 93% | 34 |
| 14 days | 11 | 55% | +0.6% | −4.3% to +3.8% | −2.1% | +2.7% | 92% | 35 |
| 30 days | 11 | 27% | −11.9% | −14.8% to +7.0% | −5.1% | −6.8% | 86% | 37 |
“Ordinary median” is the median move of DOT over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 67%).
Holding it for 7 days
Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.
Did it hold up over time?
Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 6 the gap over 7 days was +0.2%, and in the later 5 it was +3.8%. Same direction both times.
Every occurrence
One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.
| Date | Close | +1d | +7d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Feb 2026 | $1.25 | +9.6% | +2.8% | +16.0% |
| 9 Nov 2022 | $5.41 | +10.4% | +5.5% | −2.0% |
| 19 Aug 2022 | $7.31 | −1.2% | −5.2% | −11.9% |
| 13 Jun 2022 | $7.04 | +4.5% | +11.8% | −8.1% |
| 9 May 2022 | $10.62 | +7.0% | +0.1% | −15.2% |
| 21 Jan 2022 | $19.67 | −7.1% | −6.8% | −14.0% |
| 7 Sep 2021 | $27.97 | −0.8% | +33.6% | +21.5% |
| 21 Jun 2021 | $15.71 | −6.5% | +0.6% | −21.4% |
| 19 May 2021 | $25.04 | +15.6% | −2.1% | −14.4% |
| 12 May 2021 | $35.13 | +13.8% | −28.7% | −40.4% |
| 21 Jan 2021 | $15.98 | +7.1% | +5.5% | +143.7% |
| 3 Sep 2020 | $5.67 | open | open | open |
The 12 most recent. All 12 are in the open data file.
The rule
Bitcoin's daily close is at least 10% below its previous close. The outcome is measured on this coin, from its own close that day.
Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.
The same signal on other coins
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Litecoin | 21 | 67% | +2.9% | +3.2% | Weak evidence |
 Ethereum | 24 | 38% | −0.8% | −1.1% | Weak evidence |
 Neo | 24 | 58% | +1.7% | +2.3% | No better than chance |
 BNB | 24 | 67% | +0.8% | +0.3% | No better than chance |
Bitcoin drops 10% in a day across all 94 coins
Other Polkadot signals
New signals are sealed in the public ledger at the daily close. Members see them immediately; everyone else sees them a day later.
See today's signals