What happens to Dogecoin after a 10% drop in 3 days?

Since 2019, Dogecoin has shown a 10% drop in 3 days 91 times. In the 89 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 58% of the time, with a median move of +1.7%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for DOGE is −1.0%.

Weak evidence53

There is a gap, but once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 24% of the time, so it should not be relied on.

Cases since 201991last on 8 Oct 2026

Higher after 7 days58%ordinary: 45%

Median 7-day move+1.7%ordinary: −1.0%

Could be luck24%allowing for 3,572 studies

Worst / best case−33% / +347%over 7 days

Median path after the signalMiddle half of casesOrdinary DOGE drift

Price change relative to the close on the signal day. Based on the 90 cases with a full 30 days of history after them.

By holding period

After	Cases	Higher	Median move	Middle half	Ordinary median	Gap	By luck	Proof score
1 day	89	60%	+0.7%	−2.1% to +4.4%	−0.1%	+0.8%	13%	76
3 days	89	57%	+1.1%	−3.4% to +5.7%	−0.4%	+1.6%	17%	68
7 days	89	58%	+1.7%	−5.4% to +8.4%	−1.0%	+2.6%	24%	53
14 days	89	46%	−1.4%	−9.6% to +6.8%	−1.5%	+0.1%	100%	20
30 days	89	39%	−6.5%	−16.2% to +15.0%	−2.5%	−4.0%	70%	49

“Ordinary median” is the median move of DOGE over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 1.4%).

Holding it for 7 days

Typical dip on the way−7.6%ordinary DOGE: −6.9%

1 case in 4 dipped past−13.2%before day 7

Fell 10% or more on the way37%ordinary: 35%

Typical best point+8.7%highest price within 7 days

Median after costs+1.4%ordinary: −1.3%

Ahead after costs55%ordinary: 44%

Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.

Did it hold up over time?

Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 53 the gap over 7 days was +3.2%, and in the later 36 it was +1.3%. Same direction both times.

Every occurrence

One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.

Date	Close	+1d	+7d	+30d
8 Oct 2026	$0.08404	+1.6%	−3.4%	−14.7%
4 Jun 2026	$0.08858	−8.0%	−2.8%	−12.3%
31 Jan 2026	$0.1043	0.0%	−5.8%	−10.3%
20 Jan 2026	$0.1234	+2.6%	+2.3%	−20.3%
21 Nov 2025	$0.1403	0.0%	+7.0%	−6.5%
3 Nov 2025	$0.1674	−3.1%	+8.6%	−9.4%
10 Oct 2025	$0.1935	−4.2%	−4.5%	−7.3%
23 Sep 2025	$0.2371	+1.7%	−1.8%	−17.8%
25 Aug 2025	$0.2097	+4.2%	+0.5%	+15.0%
1 Aug 2025	$0.2010	−5.0%	+14.6%	+6.3%
23 Jul 2025	$0.2408	−3.6%	−8.7%	−0.1%
22 Jun 2025	$0.1513	+8.2%	+12.0%	+79.1%

The 12 most recent. All 91 are in the open data file.

The rule

Close at least 10% below the close 3 days earlier.

Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.

The same signal on other coins

Coin	Cases	Higher after 7d	Median	Gap	Verdict
Request	57	42%	−3.1%	−2.6%	Weak evidence
Internet Computer	87	37%	−4.2%	−2.9%	Weak evidence
Phala Network	93	34%	−4.4%	−2.9%	Weak evidence
BNB	82	66%	+2.3%	+1.8%	Weak evidence
Stellar	109	51%	+0.7%	+1.9%	Weak evidence
Celestia	63	29%	−5.7%	−3.1%	Weak evidence
Arkham	64	52%	+0.2%	+2.8%	Weak evidence
Avalanche	100	38%	−2.9%	−2.2%	Weak evidence

10% drop in 3 days across all 94 coins

Other Dogecoin signals

10% jump in a dayStrong evidence · 62 cases Five red days in a rowSome evidence · 29 cases 20% rise in 3 daysSome evidence · 35 cases 15% drop in 3 daysWeak evidence · 39 cases RSI rises above 70Weak evidence · 38 cases 10% drop in a dayWeak evidence · 43 cases

Full Dogecoin record

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