Curve DAO · CRV/USDT · daily
What happens to Curve DAO after Bitcoin jumps 10% in a day?
Since 2020, Curve DAO has shown Bitcoin jumps 10% in a day 13 times. In the 13 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 38% of the time, with a median move of −11.2%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for CRV is −0.5%.
No better than chance22
Once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 25% of the time, so this signal has told you nothing reliable about the following week.
On the day itself, the median move was +10.1% for CRV against +10.6% for Bitcoin. CRV had the worse day 77% of the time. The figures below start from CRV's close on that day.
By holding period
| After | Cases | Higher | Median move | Middle half | Ordinary median | Gap | By luck | Proof score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 13 | 46% | −0.1% | −2.6% to +3.8% | −0.3% | +0.2% | 95% | 7 |
| 3 days | 13 | 46% | −1.7% | −5.1% to +3.6% | −0.4% | −1.3% | 87% | 10 |
| 7 days | 13 | 38% | −11.2% | −17.8% to +16.7% | −0.5% | −10.7% | 25% | 22 |
| 14 days | 13 | 46% | 0.0% | −18.2% to +21.7% | −2.3% | +2.3% | 95% | 9 |
| 30 days | 13 | 38% | −9.7% | −27.7% to +15.3% | −4.9% | −4.8% | 94% | 10 |
“Ordinary median” is the median move of CRV over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 1.7%).
Holding it for 7 days
Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.
Did it hold up over time?
Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 7 the gap over 7 days was −15.2%, and in the later 6 it was +1.1%. The direction changed, which is what a pattern produced by chance tends to do.
Every occurrence
One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.
| Date | Close | +1d | +7d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Feb 2026 | $0.2577 | −0.1% | −2.4% | −9.7% |
| 11 Nov 2024 | $0.2945 | −6.0% | +27.3% | +284.7% |
| 8 Aug 2024 | $0.2558 | −1.5% | +23.8% | +0.4% |
| 23 Oct 2023 | $0.4718 | +1.5% | +3.5% | +23.8% |
| 10 Nov 2022 | $0.6880 | −2.6% | −19.6% | −7.3% |
| 9 Sep 2022 | $1.20 | +3.2% | −12.0% | −26.7% |
| 28 Feb 2022 | $2.44 | +4.2% | −19.0% | +15.3% |
| 4 Feb 2022 | $3.43 | −0.4% | −15.8% | −39.9% |
| 9 Jun 2021 | $2.53 | −10.3% | −17.8% | −30.0% |
| 20 May 2021 | $2.20 | −16.2% | −20.2% | −15.8% |
| 26 Apr 2021 | $2.78 | +12.5% | +16.7% | −31.9% |
| 8 Feb 2021 | $3.06 | +3.8% | −11.2% | −27.7% |
The 12 most recent. All 13 are in the open data file.
The rule
Bitcoin's daily close is at least 10% above its previous close. The outcome is measured on this coin, from its own close that day.
Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.
The same signal on other coins
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 BNB | 32 | 41% | −2.1% | −2.6% | Weak evidence |
 IOTA | 25 | 32% | −4.5% | −3.7% | Weak evidence |
 XRP | 25 | 36% | −2.3% | −1.5% | Weak evidence |
 Cardano | 25 | 36% | −3.0% | −2.1% | Weak evidence |
 Litecoin | 29 | 55% | +0.3% | +0.5% | Weak evidence |
 Zcash | 22 | 55% | +1.4% | +1.3% | Weak evidence |
 Theta Network | 22 | 64% | +6.3% | +6.9% | No better than chance |
 TRON | 25 | 56% | +2.5% | +1.9% | No better than chance |
Bitcoin jumps 10% in a day across all 94 coins
Other Curve DAO signals
New signals are sealed in the public ledger at the daily close. Members see them immediately; everyone else sees them a day later.
See today's signals