IOTA · IOTA/USDT · daily
What happens to IOTA after Bitcoin jumps 10% in a day?
Since 2018, IOTA has shown Bitcoin jumps 10% in a day 25 times. In the 25 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 32% of the time, with a median move of −4.5%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for IOTA is −0.8%.
Weak evidence45
There is a gap, but once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 58% of the time, so it should not be relied on.
On the day itself, the median move was +9.4% for IOTA against +11.1% for Bitcoin. IOTA had the worse day 68% of the time. The figures below start from IOTA's close on that day.
By holding period
| After | Cases | Higher | Median move | Middle half | Ordinary median | Gap | By luck | Proof score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 25 | 36% | −1.2% | −4.3% to +0.5% | 0.0% | −1.2% | 43% | 44 |
| 3 days | 25 | 48% | −0.2% | −5.6% to +4.8% | −0.3% | +0.1% | 98% | 13 |
| 7 days | 25 | 32% | −4.5% | −9.4% to +4.7% | −0.8% | −3.7% | 58% | 45 |
| 14 days | 25 | 56% | +1.8% | −10.6% to +13.2% | −2.3% | +4.0% | 78% | 18 |
| 30 days | 25 | 48% | −6.8% | −25.9% to +18.7% | −5.3% | −1.5% | 97% | 14 |
“Ordinary median” is the median move of IOTA over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 15%).
Holding it for 7 days
Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.
Did it hold up over time?
Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 15 the gap over 7 days was −0.5%, and in the later 10 it was −7.0%. Same direction both times.
Every occurrence
One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.
| Date | Close | +1d | +7d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Feb 2026 | $0.07340 | −3.4% | −6.8% | −13.2% |
| 11 Nov 2024 | $0.1460 | +0.5% | +28.6% | +174.4% |
| 8 Aug 2024 | $0.1365 | −1.1% | −5.9% | −13.3% |
| 23 Oct 2023 | $0.1558 | −1.2% | +5.1% | +14.2% |
| 10 Nov 2022 | $0.2351 | −2.1% | −7.0% | −11.2% |
| 9 Sep 2022 | $0.2922 | +0.9% | −10.1% | −6.8% |
| 28 Feb 2022 | $0.7967 | +0.4% | −12.9% | +12.0% |
| 4 Feb 2022 | $0.9567 | −0.8% | −8.5% | −27.6% |
| 9 Jun 2021 | $1.18 | −5.8% | −9.8% | −30.7% |
| 20 May 2021 | $1.32 | −16.3% | −11.3% | −27.1% |
| 26 Apr 2021 | $1.99 | +10.9% | +4.7% | −35.2% |
| 8 Feb 2021 | $0.7234 | +4.0% | +75.8% | +80.7% |
The 12 most recent. All 25 are in the open data file.
The rule
Bitcoin's daily close is at least 10% above its previous close. The outcome is measured on this coin, from its own close that day.
Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.
The same signal on other coins
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 BNB | 32 | 41% | −2.1% | −2.6% | Weak evidence |
 XRP | 25 | 36% | −2.3% | −1.5% | Weak evidence |
 Cardano | 25 | 36% | −3.0% | −2.1% | Weak evidence |
 Litecoin | 29 | 55% | +0.3% | +0.5% | Weak evidence |
 Zcash | 22 | 55% | +1.4% | +1.3% | Weak evidence |
 Theta Network | 22 | 64% | +6.3% | +6.9% | No better than chance |
 TRON | 25 | 56% | +2.5% | +1.9% | No better than chance |
 Ethereum | 34 | 47% | −0.3% | −0.6% | No better than chance |
Bitcoin jumps 10% in a day across all 94 coins
Other IOTA signals
New signals are sealed in the public ledger at the daily close. Members see them immediately; everyone else sees them a day later.
See today's signals