Curve DAO signals: which ones have held up
19 common signals tested on every daily CRV candle since 15 Aug 2020 (2,283 days). 1 signal show evidence of an effect on the following week. 6 signals did no better than picking days at random.
CRV price · last close$0.203614 Nov 2026 close: $0.2036 (7d −24.0%)
RSI (14)23.9under 30
Volume vs 30-day average0.93×3× or more is a spike
Market buys, share of volume43.3%above 50%: buyers lifting offers
From all-time high−99%below the 200-day average
Trading signals, ranked by evidence
| Signal | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RSI rises above 70 | 21 | 57% | +12.6% | −0.5% | 3.1% | 91 | Strong evidence · leans up | 1 Sep 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | 28 | 36% | −9.0% | −0.5% | 14% | 50 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Volume spike on a green day | 31 | 55% | +4.2% | −0.5% | 49% | 49 | Weak evidence | 29 Sep 2026 |
| Extreme buy pressure | 64 | 42% | −2.7% | −0.5% | 68% | 49 | Weak evidence | 30 Oct 2026 |
| 20% drop in a week | 53 | 57% | +1.2% | −0.5% | 79% | 48 | Weak evidence | 2 Nov 2026 |
| 10% jump in a day | 87 | 52% | +0.6% | −0.5% | 83% | 47 | Weak evidence | 31 Aug 2026 |
| Breakout to a 90-day high | 21 | 43% | −5.6% | −0.5% | 58% | 44 | Weak evidence | 1 Sep 2026 |
| Breakdown to a 90-day low | 22 | 77% | +4.0% | −0.5% | 59% | 44 | Weak evidence | 2 Jun 2026 |
| Five red days in a row | 32 | 50% | +0.5% | −0.5% | 93% | 43 | Weak evidence | 26 Oct 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | 23 | 39% | −4.1% | −0.5% | 71% | 42 | Weak evidence | 4 Nov 2026 |
| Volume spike on a red day | 20 | 55% | +3.0% | −0.5% | 74% | 41 | Weak evidence | 22 Aug 2026 |
| Extreme sell pressure | 56 | 43% | −3.7% | −0.5% | 57% | 25 | No better than chance | 26 Oct 2026 |
| 10% drop in a day | 76 | 49% | −1.1% | −0.5% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance | 8 Oct 2026 |
| Volatility squeeze | 24 | 50% | +0.4% | −0.5% | 94% | 14 | No better than chance | 6 Aug 2026 |
| RSI drops below 30 | 19 | 37% | −2.5% | −0.5% | 89% | 13 | No better than chance | 2 Nov 2026 |
| Capitulation: heavy drop on heavy volume | 13 | 46% | −3.3% | −0.5% | 86% | 11 | No better than chance | 8 Oct 2026 |
| Five green days in a row | 20 | 50% | −0.1% | −0.5% | 98% | 11 | No better than chance | 20 Sep 2026 |
| Golden cross | 8 | 50% | +2.9% | −0.5% | 51% | Too few cases | 24 Aug 2026 | |
| Death cross | 8 | 50% | −1.0% | −0.5% | 94% | Too few cases | 18 Oct 2025 |
After drops and rallies
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20% rise in 7 days | 64 | 38% | −5.9% | −0.5% | 18% | 69 | Some evidence · leans down | 21 Oct 2026 |
| 15% rise in a day | 41 | 51% | +1.8% | −0.5% | 74% | 49 | Weak evidence | 21 Aug 2026 |
| 20% rise in 3 days | 53 | 43% | −2.7% | −0.5% | 71% | 49 | Weak evidence | 1 Sep 2026 |
| 30% drop in 30 days | 69 | 41% | −2.5% | −0.5% | 71% | 48 | Weak evidence | 10 Nov 2026 |
| 7% drop in a day | 127 | 45% | −1.7% | −0.5% | 78% | 47 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 10% drop in 3 days | 121 | 46% | −1.7% | −0.5% | 78% | 47 | Weak evidence | 31 Oct 2026 |
| 10% rise in 3 days | 132 | 46% | −1.5% | −0.5% | 82% | 47 | Weak evidence | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 30% drop in 7 days | 22 | 68% | +5.3% | −0.5% | 48% | 46 | Weak evidence | 5 Feb 2026 |
| 15% drop in 3 days | 71 | 49% | −0.5% | −0.5% | 100% | 45 | Weak evidence | 31 Oct 2026 |
| 20% drop in 3 days | 25 | 56% | +1.2% | −0.5% | 88% | 40 | Weak evidence | 10 Oct 2025 |
| 100% rise in 30 days | 18 | 39% | −2.5% | −0.5% | 89% | 37 | Weak evidence | 26 Jul 2025 |
| 30% rise in 7 days | 38 | 42% | −3.4% | −0.5% | 70% | 24 | No better than chance | 21 Aug 2026 |
| 7% rise in a day | 139 | 47% | −1.6% | −0.5% | 79% | 22 | No better than chance | 15 Oct 2026 |
| 15% drop in 7 days | 82 | 50% | −0.1% | −0.5% | 96% | 21 | No better than chance | 4 Nov 2026 |
| 50% rise in 30 days | 45 | 51% | +0.3% | −0.5% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance | 7 Sep 2026 |
| 5% drop in a day | 168 | 46% | −0.7% | −0.5% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 5% rise in a day | 180 | 49% | −0.5% | −0.5% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance | 4 Nov 2026 |
| 40% drop in 30 days | 35 | 49% | −1.3% | −0.5% | 94% | 19 | No better than chance | 12 Feb 2026 |
| 15% drop in a day | 25 | 48% | −1.7% | −0.5% | 93% | 14 | No better than chance | 5 Feb 2026 |
| 50% rise in 7 days | 14 | 57% | +2.8% | −0.5% | 79% | 13 | No better than chance | 16 Jul 2025 |
| 50% drop in 30 days | 18 | 44% | −0.5% | −0.5% | 100% | 9 | No better than chance | 16 Feb 2025 |
When Bitcoin moves
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin jumps 5% in a day | 77 | 57% | +3.5% | −0.5% | 30% | 52 | Weak evidence | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 5% in a day | 62 | 47% | −2.8% | −0.5% | 68% | 49 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 10% in a day | 11 | 55% | +0.4% | −0.5% | 96% | 32 | No better than chance | 5 Feb 2026 |
| Bitcoin jumps 10% in a day | 13 | 38% | −11.2% | −0.5% | 25% | 22 | No better than chance | 6 Feb 2026 |
Returns are measured 7 days after the daily close that confirmed the signal. “Ordinary” is the median 7-day move from any day. How the proof score works.
Seen in the last 30 days
| Date | Signal | Close | +7d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov 2026 | Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | $0.2514 | −3.9% |
| 4 Nov 2026 | Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | $0.2756 | −12.4% |
| 2 Nov 2026 | RSI drops below 30 | $0.2653 | −2.5% |
| 2 Nov 2026 | 20% drop in a week | $0.2653 | −2.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | Extreme buy pressure | $0.2893 | −8.8% |
| 26 Oct 2026 | Five red days in a row | $0.3426 | −22.6% |
| 26 Oct 2026 | Extreme sell pressure | $0.3426 | −22.6% |
Signals from the most recent daily close are sealed for a day and shown to members first.