When Bitcoin jumps 10% in a day: what each coin did next
We counted every time it happened on 93 major coins, 1,187 scored cases in all, and measured the following 7 days against each coin's ordinary behaviour.
Coins with evidence0 of 540 lean up · 0 lean down
No better than chance33 of 54coins
Scored cases1,187since 2017
The rule. Bitcoin's daily close is at least 10% above its previous close. The outcome is measured on this coin, from its own close that day.
Coin by coin
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | Gap | By luck | Proof score | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 BNB | 32 | 41% | −2.1% | +0.5% | −2.6% | 54% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Chiliz | 18 | 83% | +6.3% | −0.7% | +7.0% | 36% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Aave | 12 | 25% | −9.3% | −0.1% | −9.2% | 33% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 IOTA | 25 | 32% | −4.5% | −0.8% | −3.7% | 58% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 XRP | 25 | 36% | −2.3% | −0.8% | −1.5% | 81% | 42 | Weak evidence |
 Cardano | 25 | 36% | −3.0% | −0.8% | −2.1% | 76% | 42 | Weak evidence |
 PancakeSwap | 11 | 18% | −5.7% | −0.8% | −4.9% | 60% | 42 | Weak evidence |
 Solana | 13 | 38% | −5.5% | −0.3% | −5.2% | 65% | 41 | Weak evidence |
 Litecoin | 29 | 55% | +0.3% | −0.2% | +0.5% | 96% | 41 | Weak evidence |
 Lisk | 17 | 53% | +2.3% | −0.6% | +2.9% | 74% | 40 | Weak evidence |
 Oasis | 12 | 33% | −6.7% | −1.4% | −5.3% | 68% | 40 | Weak evidence |
 Filecoin | 12 | 25% | −4.7% | −1.1% | −3.6% | 73% | 39 | Weak evidence |
 COTI | 15 | 33% | −5.2% | −1.3% | −4.0% | 74% | 39 | Weak evidence |
 Zcash | 22 | 55% | +1.4% | +0.1% | +1.3% | 93% | 38 | Weak evidence |
 Axie Infinity | 12 | 67% | +2.4% | −1.2% | +3.6% | 78% | 38 | Weak evidence |
 1inch | 12 | 33% | −4.5% | −1.3% | −3.2% | 80% | 38 | Weak evidence |
 Sun | 13 | 54% | +1.7% | −0.4% | +2.0% | 78% | 38 | Weak evidence |
 Injective | 12 | 25% | −3.7% | −0.1% | −3.6% | 80% | 37 | Weak evidence |
 Horizen | 13 | 38% | −3.4% | −0.7% | −2.7% | 87% | 36 | Weak evidence |
 The Graph | 12 | 33% | −4.5% | −1.8% | −2.7% | 86% | 36 | Weak evidence |
 Audius | 12 | 42% | −3.1% | −1.2% | −1.9% | 87% | 35 | Weak evidence |
 NEAR Protocol | 12 | 33% | −2.7% | −0.6% | −2.1% | 92% | 34 | No better than chance |
 Reserve Rights | 13 | 31% | −2.9% | −1.3% | −1.6% | 94% | 34 | No better than chance |
 Theta Network | 22 | 64% | +6.3% | −0.6% | +6.9% | 30% | 24 | No better than chance |
 Conflux | 10 | 30% | −6.2% | −1.6% | −4.7% | 73% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Curve DAO | 13 | 38% | −11.2% | −0.5% | −10.7% | 25% | 22 | No better than chance |
 TRON | 25 | 56% | +2.5% | +0.7% | +1.9% | 61% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Ethereum | 34 | 47% | −0.3% | +0.3% | −0.6% | 94% | 19 | No better than chance |
 Hedera | 17 | 53% | +3.7% | −1.2% | +4.8% | 52% | 19 | No better than chance |
 The Sandbox | 13 | 62% | +4.9% | −1.3% | +6.2% | 52% | 19 | No better than chance |
 Stellar | 25 | 52% | +0.2% | −1.1% | +1.4% | 86% | 16 | No better than chance |
 Neo | 31 | 48% | −0.6% | −0.6% | −0.1% | 100% | 16 | No better than chance |
 Ethereum Classic | 25 | 48% | 0.0% | −1.0% | +1.0% | 90% | 15 | No better than chance |
 Chainlink | 23 | 43% | −1.2% | +0.1% | −1.4% | 91% | 14 | No better than chance |
 VeChain | 25 | 40% | −1.5% | −0.8% | −0.6% | 95% | 14 | No better than chance |
 Basic Attention Token | 22 | 50% | −1.5% | −0.1% | −1.4% | 90% | 14 | No better than chance |
 Fetch.ai | 23 | 52% | 0.0% | −1.2% | +1.3% | 93% | 13 | No better than chance |
 Ravencoin | 18 | 50% | +0.6% | −1.3% | +1.9% | 84% | 13 | No better than chance |
 Dogecoin | 18 | 33% | −2.0% | −1.0% | −1.0% | 92% | 12 | No better than chance |
 DODO | 11 | 27% | −4.2% | −0.8% | −3.4% | 82% | 12 | No better than chance |
 Harmony | 19 | 37% | −2.8% | −1.3% | −1.5% | 93% | 12 | No better than chance |
 Algorand | 18 | 44% | −2.6% | −1.0% | −1.6% | 91% | 12 | No better than chance |
 Cosmos | 20 | 50% | −0.3% | −0.9% | +0.5% | 97% | 11 | No better than chance |
 Dash | 22 | 50% | −0.4% | −0.5% | +0.1% | 100% | 11 | No better than chance |
 Stacks | 17 | 47% | −1.9% | −0.6% | −1.3% | 94% | 11 | No better than chance |
 AVA (Travala) | 12 | 42% | −3.0% | −0.4% | −2.6% | 82% | 11 | No better than chance |
 Polkadot | 13 | 38% | −2.8% | −1.0% | −1.8% | 90% | 10 | No better than chance |
 Kava | 17 | 53% | +0.2% | −0.6% | +0.8% | 95% | 10 | No better than chance |
 Bitcoin Cash | 17 | 47% | −0.6% | −0.2% | −0.4% | 98% | 9 | No better than chance |
 JUST | 13 | 46% | 0.0% | +0.6% | −0.7% | 96% | 9 | No better than chance |
 Avalanche | 13 | 38% | −1.5% | −0.7% | −0.8% | 96% | 8 | No better than chance |
 Uniswap | 13 | 31% | −1.2% | −0.4% | −0.8% | 97% | 8 | No better than chance |
 Tellor | 13 | 38% | −1.6% | −0.4% | −1.2% | 96% | 8 | No better than chance |
 THORChain | 13 | 46% | −0.5% | −0.3% | −0.2% | 100% | 7 | No better than chance |
 Aptos | 4 | 50% | −2.2% | −1.5% | −0.7% | 91% | Too few cases | |
 Arbitrum | 4 | 50% | +2.9% | −1.7% | +4.6% | 44% | Too few cases | |
 Optimism | 6 | 33% | −8.2% | −1.4% | −6.8% | 25% | Too few cases | |
 Sui | 4 | 50% | +4.6% | −1.5% | +6.1% | 34% | Too few cases | |
 Pepe | 4 | 50% | +7.2% | −1.4% | +8.6% | 26% | Too few cases | |
| Worldcoin | 4 | 25% | −3.2% | −2.7% | −0.4% | 96% | Too few cases | |
 Quant | 8 | 50% | +0.4% | −1.3% | +1.7% | 59% | Too few cases | |
 Celestia | 3 | 0% | −4.2% | −2.7% | −1.5% | 87% | Too few cases | |
 Internet Computer | 8 | 13% | −10.4% | −1.3% | −9.1% | 5.1% | Too few cases | |
 Shiba Inu | 9 | 33% | −7.3% | −1.5% | −5.8% | 10% | Too few cases | |
 Arweave | 8 | 13% | −6.1% | −1.2% | −4.9% | 32% | Too few cases | |
 Sei | 4 | 50% | −2.1% | −2.2% | +0.2% | 98% | Too few cases | |
 Raydium | 8 | 25% | −7.4% | −0.9% | −6.5% | 20% | Too few cases | |
 Pendle | 4 | 25% | −3.8% | −0.3% | −3.5% | 65% | Too few cases | |
 Lido DAO | 6 | 33% | −3.1% | −1.2% | −1.9% | 74% | Too few cases | |
 Beam | 3 | 33% | −0.3% | −0.5% | +0.2% | 97% | Too few cases | |
 ApeCoin | 6 | 17% | −4.7% | −1.7% | −3.0% | 56% | Too few cases | |
 ORDI | 3 | 0% | −3.7% | −1.9% | −1.8% | 83% | Too few cases | |
 Terra Classic | 5 | 60% | +6.4% | −1.6% | +8.0% | 9.1% | Too few cases | |
 Gala | 8 | 38% | −6.4% | −3.0% | −3.4% | 50% | Too few cases | |
 DeXe | 8 | 50% | −1.4% | −0.3% | −1.1% | 77% | Too few cases | |
 Cyber | 4 | 50% | −1.3% | −2.0% | +0.7% | 92% | Too few cases | |
 Amp | 8 | 38% | −6.0% | −2.2% | −3.8% | 21% | Too few cases | |
 ConstitutionDAO | 8 | 13% | −10.6% | −1.3% | −9.3% | 8.5% | Too few cases | |
 dYdX | 8 | 63% | +0.2% | −1.7% | +1.9% | 70% | Too few cases | |
 Arkham | 4 | 25% | −8.8% | −2.5% | −6.3% | 37% | Too few cases | |
 Nexo | 6 | 50% | −1.8% | −0.3% | −1.5% | 52% | Too few cases | |
 Prom | 4 | 50% | −3.4% | −0.2% | −3.2% | 50% | Too few cases | |
| Convex Finance | 8 | 38% | −5.4% | −1.7% | −3.7% | 43% | Too few cases | |
 Phala Network | 8 | 38% | −3.1% | −1.5% | −1.6% | 70% | Too few cases | |
| Floki | 4 | 50% | +12.2% | −1.9% | +14.1% | 6.1% | Too few cases | |
 Ethereum Name Service | 8 | 25% | −6.0% | −1.1% | −4.9% | 27% | Too few cases | |
 Radworks | 8 | 25% | −4.4% | −0.9% | −3.5% | 32% | Too few cases | |
 Immutable | 7 | 43% | −1.3% | −1.7% | +0.4% | 95% | Too few cases | |
 Memecoin | 3 | 33% | −6.7% | −3.4% | −3.3% | 66% | Too few cases | |
 Gitcoin | 8 | 38% | −4.5% | −1.2% | −3.3% | 53% | Too few cases | |
 Request | 8 | 25% | −3.7% | −0.5% | −3.2% | 29% | Too few cases | |
 Livepeer | 8 | 38% | −7.8% | −1.7% | −6.1% | 20% | Too few cases | |
 Polymesh | 4 | 75% | +8.4% | −1.6% | +10.0% | 9.6% | Too few cases |
With 94 coins tested, one or two would look convincing by luck alone. A signal that only “works” on a single coin deserves less trust than one that leans the same way on many. Method.