Curve DAO · CRV/USDT · daily
What happens to Curve DAO after large-trade selling?
Since 2020, Curve DAO has shown large-trade selling 28 times. In the 28 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 36% of the time, with a median move of −9.0%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for CRV is −0.5%.
Weak evidence50
There is a gap, but the effect reversed between the earlier and the later part of the history, so it should not be relied on.
By holding period
| After | Cases | Higher | Median move | Middle half | Ordinary median | Gap | By luck | Proof score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 28 | 61% | +1.0% | −4.8% to +3.2% | −0.3% | +1.3% | 46% | 20 |
| 3 days | 28 | 39% | −1.1% | −13.4% to +4.5% | −0.4% | −0.7% | 89% | 16 |
| 7 days | 28 | 36% | −9.0% | −13.8% to +3.5% | −0.5% | −8.4% | 14% | 50 |
| 14 days | 27 | 26% | −12.4% | −19.6% to −1.7% | −2.3% | −10.2% | 29% | 50 |
| 30 days | 27 | 22% | −18.9% | −28.7% to −4.7% | −4.9% | −14.1% | 41% | 50 |
“Ordinary median” is the median move of CRV over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 0.5%).
Holding it for 7 days
Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.
Did it hold up over time?
Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 16 the gap over 7 days was −11.1%, and in the later 12 it was +2.8%. The direction changed, which is what a pattern produced by chance tends to do.
Every occurrence
One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.
| Date | Close | +1d | +7d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov 2026 | $0.2514 | +5.0% | −3.9% | open |
| 14 Apr 2026 | $0.2165 | +2.9% | +6.5% | +27.8% |
| 24 Dec 2024 | $1.01 | +0.9% | −11.8% | −21.8% |
| 16 Dec 2024 | $1.07 | +2.9% | −11.1% | −10.3% |
| 9 Dec 2024 | $1.06 | +1.1% | +1.2% | −18.9% |
| 2 Dec 2024 | $0.7310 | +20.0% | +44.9% | +31.1% |
| 23 Nov 2024 | $0.4949 | +2.7% | +37.7% | +92.6% |
| 22 Aug 2024 | $0.3269 | +3.9% | −11.5% | −8.8% |
| 15 Aug 2024 | $0.3168 | +4.1% | +3.2% | −13.1% |
| 13 Jun 2024 | $0.2867 | −1.3% | +20.1% | +1.0% |
| 19 May 2024 | $0.4194 | +10.4% | +14.6% | −20.2% |
| 9 Apr 2024 | $0.6209 | −0.5% | −30.4% | −28.1% |
The 12 most recent. All 28 are in the open data file.
The rule
Average trade size in the top 5% of the previous 180 days, with the share of volume from market buys below 50%. When the average trade gets unusually large, bigger players are active. Here they are active while market sells outweigh market buys.
Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.
The same signal on other coins
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Conflux | 31 | 35% | −8.7% | −7.1% | Some evidence · leans down |
 Polkadot | 35 | 66% | +3.6% | +4.6% | Weak evidence |
 Hedera | 43 | 30% | −4.7% | −3.5% | Weak evidence |
 Horizen | 44 | 36% | −4.4% | −3.8% | Weak evidence |
 Algorand | 39 | 31% | −4.3% | −3.3% | Weak evidence |
 The Sandbox | 41 | 37% | −4.2% | −2.9% | Weak evidence |
 Theta Network | 50 | 54% | +2.8% | +3.4% | Weak evidence |
 Ethereum | 82 | 38% | −1.7% | −2.0% | Weak evidence |
Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control across all 94 coins
Other Curve DAO signals
New signals are sealed in the public ledger at the daily close. Members see them immediately; everyone else sees them a day later.
See today's signals