After a 100% rise in 30 days: what happened next, coin by coin
We counted every time it happened on 94 major coins, 1,222 scored cases in all, and measured the following 7 days against each coin's ordinary behaviour.
Coins with evidence8 of 616 lean up · 2 lean down
No better than chance30 of 61coins
Scored cases1,222since 2017
The rule. Close at least 100% above the close 30 days earlier.
Coin by coin
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | Gap | By luck | Proof score | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Fetch.ai | 33 | 70% | +10.3% | −1.2% | +11.5% | 2.8% | 97 | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Axie Infinity | 26 | 65% | +8.9% | −1.2% | +10.2% | 5.1% | 93 | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Oasis | 12 | 17% | −20.5% | −1.4% | −19.1% | 4.6% | 86 | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Solana | 23 | 74% | +14.2% | −0.3% | +14.5% | 3.1% | 67 | Some evidence · leans up |
 DeXe | 16 | 69% | +8.1% | −0.3% | +8.4% | 15% | 67 | Some evidence · leans up |
 THORChain | 22 | 68% | +8.7% | −0.3% | +9.1% | 18% | 66 | Some evidence · leans up |
 Zcash | 19 | 68% | +9.5% | +0.1% | +9.3% | 21% | 57 | Some evidence · leans up |
 Phala Network | 14 | 36% | −13.9% | −1.5% | −12.4% | 7.6% | 57 | Some evidence · leans down |
 Prom | 11 | 36% | −9.7% | −0.2% | −9.5% | 22% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 Injective | 28 | 57% | +6.8% | −0.1% | +6.9% | 32% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 Sun | 14 | 43% | −6.0% | −0.4% | −5.6% | 27% | 47 | Weak evidence |
| Convex Finance | 12 | 17% | −10.7% | −1.7% | −9.0% | 32% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Livepeer | 12 | 33% | −11.2% | −1.7% | −9.5% | 28% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Shiba Inu | 11 | 55% | +6.8% | −1.5% | +8.3% | 25% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 Polkadot | 12 | 67% | +5.1% | −1.0% | +6.1% | 49% | 44 | Weak evidence |
 Stellar | 13 | 38% | −6.1% | −1.1% | −4.9% | 49% | 44 | Weak evidence |
 Gala | 18 | 50% | +2.8% | −3.0% | +5.7% | 52% | 44 | Weak evidence |
 ConstitutionDAO | 13 | 23% | −8.6% | −1.3% | −7.3% | 51% | 44 | Weak evidence |
 Chainlink | 17 | 35% | −4.7% | +0.1% | −4.8% | 61% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 Algorand | 11 | 36% | −6.5% | −1.0% | −5.5% | 63% | 41 | Weak evidence |
 Horizen | 23 | 48% | −3.3% | −0.7% | −2.6% | 82% | 41 | Weak evidence |
 Neo | 13 | 38% | −5.4% | −0.6% | −4.8% | 60% | 41 | Weak evidence |
 Avalanche | 21 | 48% | −2.5% | −0.7% | −1.8% | 87% | 39 | Weak evidence |
 Filecoin | 11 | 36% | −5.3% | −1.1% | −4.2% | 71% | 39 | Weak evidence |
 Stacks | 22 | 36% | −2.3% | −0.6% | −1.6% | 90% | 39 | Weak evidence |
 Theta Network | 22 | 55% | +1.1% | −0.6% | +1.7% | 89% | 39 | Weak evidence |
 Cardano | 17 | 53% | +0.7% | −0.8% | +1.5% | 89% | 37 | Weak evidence |
 Kava | 12 | 58% | +2.3% | −0.6% | +2.8% | 80% | 37 | Weak evidence |
 Arweave | 16 | 44% | −3.4% | −1.2% | −2.2% | 87% | 37 | Weak evidence |
 Curve DAO | 18 | 39% | −2.5% | −0.5% | −1.9% | 89% | 37 | Weak evidence |
 Cosmos | 13 | 38% | −3.2% | −0.9% | −2.4% | 87% | 36 | Weak evidence |
| Worldcoin | 10 | 40% | −9.4% | −2.7% | −6.7% | 63% | 26 | No better than chance |
 Gitcoin | 10 | 30% | −6.5% | −1.2% | −5.3% | 71% | 24 | No better than chance |
 BNB | 16 | 63% | +5.6% | +0.5% | +5.2% | 32% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Harmony | 29 | 48% | −6.6% | −1.3% | −5.3% | 48% | 23 | No better than chance |
 The Sandbox | 27 | 56% | +3.3% | −1.3% | +4.7% | 48% | 23 | No better than chance |
 The Graph | 15 | 60% | +6.5% | −1.8% | +8.3% | 33% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Uniswap | 14 | 64% | +8.4% | −0.4% | +8.9% | 29% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Lisk | 13 | 38% | −9.2% | −0.6% | −8.6% | 26% | 22 | No better than chance |
 AVA (Travala) | 10 | 60% | +2.8% | −0.4% | +3.3% | 79% | 22 | No better than chance |
 NEAR Protocol | 27 | 41% | −5.2% | −0.6% | −4.6% | 60% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Lido DAO | 10 | 50% | +1.8% | −1.2% | +3.0% | 86% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Audius | 18 | 61% | +3.8% | −1.2% | +5.0% | 45% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Ravencoin | 13 | 54% | +4.4% | −1.3% | +5.7% | 48% | 19 | No better than chance |
 Dash | 18 | 39% | −4.7% | −0.5% | −4.2% | 54% | 18 | No better than chance |
 Basic Attention Token | 10 | 50% | +1.0% | −0.1% | +1.2% | 94% | 18 | No better than chance |
 Quant | 10 | 50% | −1.1% | −1.3% | +0.3% | 99% | 16 | No better than chance |
 Sei | 10 | 50% | −1.5% | −2.2% | +0.8% | 98% | 16 | No better than chance |
 Tellor | 24 | 46% | −2.9% | −0.4% | −2.5% | 83% | 16 | No better than chance |
 XRP | 18 | 39% | −3.0% | −0.8% | −2.2% | 73% | 15 | No better than chance |
 Ethereum Classic | 18 | 44% | −3.5% | −1.0% | −2.5% | 71% | 15 | No better than chance |
 Chiliz | 17 | 29% | −4.4% | −0.7% | −3.8% | 70% | 15 | No better than chance |
 Dogecoin | 22 | 55% | +0.1% | −1.0% | +1.0% | 91% | 14 | No better than chance |
 Raydium | 21 | 48% | −2.9% | −0.9% | −2.0% | 87% | 14 | No better than chance |
 Reserve Rights | 14 | 36% | −5.9% | −1.3% | −4.6% | 75% | 14 | No better than chance |
 COTI | 23 | 52% | +0.3% | −1.3% | +1.5% | 91% | 14 | No better than chance |
 Hedera | 24 | 50% | −1.7% | −1.2% | −0.5% | 97% | 13 | No better than chance |
 Conflux | 15 | 47% | −4.0% | −1.6% | −2.4% | 87% | 12 | No better than chance |
 VeChain | 20 | 40% | −1.0% | −0.8% | −0.1% | 99% | 10 | No better than chance |
 Aave | 11 | 45% | −1.6% | −0.1% | −1.6% | 94% | 8 | No better than chance |
 Pepe | 13 | 46% | −0.9% | −1.4% | +0.5% | 98% | 7 | No better than chance |
 Bitcoin | 4 | 0% | −3.4% | +0.5% | −3.8% | 31% | Too few cases | |
 Ethereum | 8 | 38% | −6.3% | +0.3% | −6.6% | 8.7% | Too few cases | |
 TRON | 6 | 17% | −15.2% | +0.7% | −15.9% | under 0.1% | Too few cases | |
 Litecoin | 3 | 33% | −12.3% | −0.2% | −12.0% | 8.1% | Too few cases | |
 Bitcoin Cash | 9 | 33% | −10.9% | −0.2% | −10.7% | 1.1% | Too few cases | |
 Aptos | 4 | 50% | +2.5% | −1.5% | +4.1% | 50% | Too few cases | |
 Arbitrum | 6 | 17% | −7.5% | −1.7% | −5.8% | 26% | Too few cases | |
 Optimism | 8 | 50% | −2.9% | −1.4% | −1.5% | 77% | Too few cases | |
 Sui | 7 | 71% | +3.5% | −1.5% | +5.0% | 31% | Too few cases | |
 Celestia | 6 | 50% | +9.3% | −2.7% | +11.9% | 7.3% | Too few cases | |
 DODO | 4 | 25% | −17.9% | −0.8% | −17.1% | 2.7% | Too few cases | |
 Internet Computer | 8 | 25% | −7.9% | −1.3% | −6.6% | 15% | Too few cases | |
 PancakeSwap | 9 | 22% | −5.1% | −0.8% | −4.3% | 25% | Too few cases | |
 Pendle | 7 | 57% | +7.6% | −0.3% | +7.8% | 21% | Too few cases | |
 JUST | 7 | 57% | +7.9% | +0.6% | +7.2% | 4.6% | Too few cases | |
 Beam | 8 | 38% | −4.6% | −0.5% | −4.0% | 44% | Too few cases | |
 ApeCoin | 3 | 0% | −8.2% | −1.7% | −6.5% | 39% | Too few cases | |
 ORDI | 8 | 50% | −3.7% | −1.9% | −1.7% | 72% | Too few cases | |
 Terra Classic | 6 | 50% | −5.7% | −1.6% | −4.1% | 30% | Too few cases | |
 Cyber | 0 | – | – | −2.0% | – | – | Too few cases | |
 Amp | 8 | 25% | −8.3% | −2.2% | −6.1% | 6.2% | Too few cases | |
 dYdX | 6 | 33% | −8.7% | −1.7% | −7.1% | 23% | Too few cases | |
 Arkham | 5 | 80% | +22.1% | −2.5% | +24.6% | 0.7% | Too few cases | |
 Nexo | 0 | – | – | −0.3% | – | – | Too few cases | |
| Floki | 9 | 44% | −15.1% | −1.9% | −13.2% | 1.0% | Too few cases | |
 Ethereum Name Service | 7 | 43% | −8.1% | −1.1% | −7.0% | 17% | Too few cases | |
 Radworks | 1 | 0% | −36.1% | −0.9% | – | – | Too few cases | |
 Immutable | 9 | 78% | +8.9% | −1.7% | +10.6% | 4.2% | Too few cases | |
 Memecoin | 4 | 0% | −17.8% | −3.4% | −14.3% | 5.0% | Too few cases | |
 Request | 4 | 25% | −16.9% | −0.5% | −16.4% | 0.4% | Too few cases | |
 1inch | 7 | 29% | −6.1% | −1.3% | −4.8% | 31% | Too few cases | |
 Polymesh | 7 | 29% | −3.5% | −1.6% | −2.0% | 65% | Too few cases | |
 IOTA | 9 | 56% | +1.8% | −0.8% | +2.6% | 51% | Too few cases |
With 94 coins tested, one or two would look convincing by luck alone. A signal that only “works” on a single coin deserves less trust than one that leans the same way on many. Method.