Phala Network · PHA/USDT · daily
What happens to Phala Network after a 10% daily drop?
Since 2021, Phala Network has shown a 10% daily drop 49 times. In the 48 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 25% of the time, with a median move of −5.4%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for PHA is −1.5%.
Weak evidence53
There is a gap, but once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 34% of the time, so it should not be relied on.
By holding period
| After | Cases | Higher | Median move | Middle half | Ordinary median | Gap | By luck | Proof score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 48 | 38% | −2.1% | −5.1% to +2.2% | −0.2% | −1.9% | 7.7% | 90 |
| 3 days | 48 | 38% | −2.1% | −5.0% to +5.2% | −0.5% | −1.6% | 54% | 50 |
| 7 days | 48 | 25% | −5.4% | −15.7% to −0.2% | −1.5% | −3.9% | 34% | 53 |
| 14 days | 48 | 35% | −5.8% | −18.6% to +2.6% | −2.9% | −2.8% | 79% | 24 |
| 30 days | 47 | 26% | −12.9% | −23.5% to −0.9% | −6.2% | −6.7% | 68% | 51 |
“Ordinary median” is the median move of PHA over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 3.5%).
Holding it for 7 days
Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.
Did it hold up over time?
Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 28 the gap over 7 days was −1.5%, and in the later 20 it was −7.1%. Same direction both times.
Every occurrence
One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.
| Date | Close | +1d | +7d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Oct 2026 | $0.05350 | −9.5% | −20.7% | open |
| 7 Oct 2026 | $0.06300 | −2.7% | −19.7% | −41.1% |
| 27 Sep 2026 | $0.06830 | −11.4% | +11.4% | −28.8% |
| 25 Jun 2026 | $0.03160 | −0.3% | −15.8% | −28.8% |
| 4 Jun 2026 | $0.03420 | −4.7% | −2.3% | −21.9% |
| 27 May 2026 | $0.04570 | −11.8% | −16.2% | −31.1% |
| 14 Apr 2026 | $0.03600 | +6.1% | −11.7% | −4.2% |
| 6 Mar 2026 | $0.04200 | −13.8% | −15.7% | −14.3% |
| 31 Jan 2026 | $0.03070 | +0.3% | −7.8% | −18.9% |
| 1 Dec 2025 | $0.04210 | +1.2% | +5.7% | −15.2% |
| 3 Nov 2025 | $0.05100 | −2.9% | +23.1% | −15.1% |
| 10 Oct 2025 | $0.06630 | −0.5% | −8.6% | +1.7% |
The 12 most recent. All 49 are in the open data file.
The rule
Daily close at least 10% below the previous close. A double-digit loss in one day is the classic "buy the dip or run" moment.
Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.
The same signal on other coins
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Request | 22 | 23% | −7.4% | −6.9% | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Stellar | 44 | 57% | +3.1% | +4.2% | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Basic Attention Token | 56 | 66% | +4.1% | +4.2% | Some evidence · leans up |
 Uniswap | 48 | 71% | +3.8% | +4.2% | Weak evidence |
 Cosmos | 54 | 59% | +3.1% | +4.0% | Weak evidence |
| Floki | 31 | 23% | −8.2% | −6.3% | Weak evidence |
 DeXe | 39 | 49% | −3.4% | −3.2% | Weak evidence |
| Convex Finance | 42 | 40% | −5.4% | −3.6% | Weak evidence |
10% drop in a day across all 94 coins
Other Phala Network signals
New signals are sealed in the public ledger at the daily close. Members see them immediately; everyone else sees them a day later.
See today's signals