10% drop in a day: does it work in crypto?
A double-digit loss in one day is the classic "buy the dip or run" moment. We counted every time it happened on 94 major coins, 4,394 scored cases in all, and measured the following 7 days against each coin's ordinary behaviour.
Coins with evidence3 of 932 lean up · 1 lean down
No better than chance49 of 93coins
Scored cases4,394since 2017
The rule. Daily close at least 10% below the previous close.
Coin by coin
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | Gap | By luck | Proof score | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Request | 22 | 23% | −7.4% | −0.5% | −6.9% | 4.6% | 91 | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Stellar | 44 | 57% | +3.1% | −1.1% | +4.2% | 17% | 72 | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Basic Attention Token | 56 | 66% | +4.1% | −0.1% | +4.2% | 22% | 59 | Some evidence · leans up |
 Uniswap | 48 | 71% | +3.8% | −0.4% | +4.2% | 36% | 53 | Weak evidence |
 Cosmos | 54 | 59% | +3.1% | −0.9% | +4.0% | 33% | 53 | Weak evidence |
 Phala Network | 48 | 25% | −5.4% | −1.5% | −3.9% | 34% | 53 | Weak evidence |
| Floki | 31 | 23% | −8.2% | −1.9% | −6.3% | 25% | 53 | Weak evidence |
 DeXe | 39 | 49% | −3.4% | −0.3% | −3.2% | 48% | 52 | Weak evidence |
| Convex Finance | 42 | 40% | −5.4% | −1.7% | −3.6% | 49% | 52 | Weak evidence |
 THORChain | 61 | 34% | −4.6% | −0.3% | −4.3% | 34% | 52 | Weak evidence |
 Dogecoin | 43 | 53% | +1.4% | −1.0% | +2.3% | 57% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 Ethereum Classic | 54 | 57% | +1.5% | −1.0% | +2.5% | 42% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 Pepe | 32 | 22% | −6.8% | −1.4% | −5.4% | 42% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 Audius | 59 | 56% | +1.0% | −1.2% | +2.2% | 58% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 Algorand | 61 | 54% | +1.1% | −1.0% | +2.1% | 69% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Lido DAO | 42 | 50% | +1.0% | −1.2% | +2.2% | 78% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Arkham | 35 | 26% | −6.3% | −2.5% | −3.7% | 59% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Ethereum | 50 | 44% | −0.8% | +0.3% | −1.1% | 82% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Litecoin | 53 | 55% | +1.0% | −0.2% | +1.2% | 79% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 NEAR Protocol | 60 | 45% | −2.6% | −0.6% | −2.0% | 78% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Quant | 23 | 61% | +2.8% | −1.3% | +4.2% | 36% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Gala | 54 | 37% | −4.5% | −3.0% | −1.5% | 83% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Cyber | 27 | 37% | −6.6% | −2.0% | −4.7% | 45% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Oasis | 60 | 32% | −3.4% | −1.4% | −2.0% | 73% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Theta Network | 63 | 52% | +0.9% | −0.6% | +1.4% | 82% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 BNB | 37 | 62% | +1.7% | +0.5% | +1.2% | 80% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Optimism | 37 | 51% | +0.4% | −1.4% | +1.9% | 85% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Fetch.ai | 92 | 52% | +0.4% | −1.2% | +1.6% | 77% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Beam | 24 | 29% | −6.3% | −0.5% | −5.8% | 43% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Prom | 27 | 67% | +3.1% | −0.2% | +3.3% | 46% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Tellor | 79 | 44% | −1.5% | −0.4% | −1.1% | 89% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Gitcoin | 61 | 38% | −2.5% | −1.2% | −1.4% | 86% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 1inch | 38 | 42% | −2.6% | −1.3% | −1.3% | 87% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Conflux | 62 | 45% | −0.9% | −1.6% | +0.7% | 93% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Pendle | 25 | 44% | −4.9% | −0.3% | −4.7% | 62% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 Sui | 15 | 60% | +4.5% | −1.5% | +6.0% | 50% | 44 | Weak evidence |
 Shiba Inu | 31 | 52% | +0.1% | −1.5% | +1.6% | 79% | 44 | Weak evidence |
 Bitcoin | 24 | 58% | +2.2% | +0.5% | +1.8% | 69% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 Aptos | 25 | 32% | −4.1% | −1.5% | −2.5% | 78% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 Polymesh | 24 | 58% | +1.1% | −1.6% | +2.6% | 71% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 Arbitrum | 22 | 55% | +0.8% | −1.7% | +2.5% | 78% | 41 | Weak evidence |
 Celestia | 28 | 29% | −4.0% | −2.7% | −1.3% | 92% | 41 | Weak evidence |
 Sei | 26 | 35% | −3.3% | −2.2% | −1.1% | 93% | 40 | Weak evidence |
 Amp | 22 | 41% | −1.4% | −2.2% | +0.9% | 91% | 38 | Weak evidence |
 Internet Computer | 38 | 37% | −5.6% | −1.3% | −4.3% | 37% | 28 | No better than chance |
 Sun | 41 | 49% | −2.8% | −0.4% | −2.4% | 39% | 28 | No better than chance |
 Kava | 69 | 62% | +2.9% | −0.6% | +3.5% | 28% | 27 | No better than chance |
 Stacks | 63 | 38% | −3.7% | −0.6% | −3.1% | 52% | 26 | No better than chance |
 Cardano | 55 | 55% | +1.7% | −0.8% | +2.6% | 53% | 25 | No better than chance |
 Chainlink | 52 | 62% | +2.7% | +0.1% | +2.6% | 63% | 25 | No better than chance |
 The Graph | 51 | 37% | −4.2% | −1.8% | −2.5% | 66% | 25 | No better than chance |
 VeChain | 63 | 52% | +1.3% | −0.8% | +2.1% | 61% | 24 | No better than chance |
 COTI | 77 | 52% | +1.1% | −1.3% | +2.3% | 62% | 24 | No better than chance |
 Immutable | 39 | 44% | −4.4% | −1.7% | −2.7% | 71% | 24 | No better than chance |
 AVA (Travala) | 41 | 49% | −2.4% | −0.4% | −2.0% | 74% | 24 | No better than chance |
 TRON | 37 | 54% | +1.8% | +0.7% | +1.2% | 74% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Filecoin | 50 | 42% | −2.4% | −1.1% | −1.3% | 82% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Zcash | 65 | 46% | −1.6% | +0.1% | −1.7% | 75% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Dash | 64 | 39% | −1.9% | −0.5% | −1.4% | 75% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Arweave | 59 | 41% | −3.2% | −1.2% | −1.9% | 73% | 23 | No better than chance |
 dYdX | 52 | 31% | −3.3% | −1.7% | −1.6% | 82% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Livepeer | 54 | 50% | −0.2% | −1.7% | +1.5% | 81% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Ravencoin | 56 | 50% | −0.2% | −1.3% | +1.1% | 83% | 23 | No better than chance |
 IOTA | 62 | 56% | +0.8% | −0.8% | +1.6% | 74% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Solana | 40 | 57% | +1.0% | −0.3% | +1.3% | 87% | 22 | No better than chance |
 XRP | 50 | 50% | −0.2% | −0.8% | +0.6% | 92% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Polkadot | 37 | 54% | +0.6% | −1.0% | +1.5% | 82% | 22 | No better than chance |
 DODO | 60 | 40% | −1.8% | −0.8% | −1.0% | 91% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Raydium | 46 | 41% | −1.8% | −0.9% | −0.9% | 92% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Neo | 72 | 50% | +0.1% | −0.6% | +0.7% | 91% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Avalanche | 49 | 47% | −0.4% | −0.7% | +0.3% | 98% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Bitcoin Cash | 43 | 51% | +0.3% | −0.2% | +0.5% | 95% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Aave | 45 | 47% | −0.4% | −0.1% | −0.3% | 98% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Hedera | 48 | 46% | −0.7% | −1.2% | +0.5% | 95% | 21 | No better than chance |
 PancakeSwap | 36 | 39% | −1.9% | −0.8% | −1.1% | 87% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Harmony | 79 | 42% | −1.7% | −1.3% | −0.4% | 97% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Curve DAO | 76 | 49% | −1.1% | −0.5% | −0.6% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Chiliz | 53 | 45% | −1.1% | −0.7% | −0.4% | 97% | 21 | No better than chance |
 ConstitutionDAO | 62 | 40% | −1.7% | −1.3% | −0.3% | 98% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Axie Infinity | 58 | 47% | −0.8% | −1.2% | +0.4% | 96% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Lisk | 53 | 47% | −0.3% | −0.6% | +0.3% | 98% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Injective | 62 | 50% | 0.0% | −0.1% | +0.1% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance |
| Worldcoin | 44 | 36% | −2.8% | −2.7% | −0.1% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Horizen | 69 | 48% | −0.8% | −0.7% | −0.2% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance |
 The Sandbox | 57 | 44% | −1.3% | −1.3% | 0.0% | 100% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Reserve Rights | 75 | 44% | −1.3% | −1.3% | 0.0% | 100% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Ethereum Name Service | 35 | 43% | −2.5% | −1.1% | −1.5% | 86% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Radworks | 29 | 38% | −3.1% | −0.9% | −2.2% | 70% | 20 | No better than chance |
 ApeCoin | 36 | 47% | −1.1% | −1.7% | +0.6% | 95% | 19 | No better than chance |
 Memecoin | 33 | 45% | −2.1% | −3.4% | +1.3% | 90% | 19 | No better than chance |
 JUST | 33 | 52% | +0.2% | +0.6% | −0.4% | 95% | 18 | No better than chance |
 ORDI | 35 | 43% | −1.7% | −1.9% | +0.2% | 99% | 18 | No better than chance |
 Terra Classic | 26 | 50% | +0.1% | −1.6% | +1.7% | 80% | 18 | No better than chance |
 Nexo | 5 | 40% | −5.4% | −0.3% | −5.1% | 9.6% | Too few cases |
With 94 coins tested, one or two would look convincing by luck alone. A signal that only “works” on a single coin deserves less trust than one that leans the same way on many. Method.