What happens to Worldcoin after a 15% drop in 7 days?

Since 2023, Worldcoin has shown a 15% drop in 7 days 60 times. In the 57 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 40% of the time, with a median move of −2.9%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for WLD is −2.7%.

Weak evidence45

There is a gap, but once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 98% of the time, so it should not be relied on.

Cases since 202360last on 9 Nov 2026

Higher after 7 days40%ordinary: 41%

Median 7-day move−2.9%ordinary: −2.7%

Could be luck98%allowing for 3,572 studies

Worst / best case−29% / +54%over 7 days

Median path after the signalMiddle half of casesOrdinary WLD drift

Price change relative to the close on the signal day. Based on the 57 cases with a full 30 days of history after them.

By holding period

After	Cases	Higher	Median move	Middle half	Ordinary median	Gap	By luck	Proof score
1 day	58	47%	−0.4%	−3.3% to +4.7%	−0.6%	+0.2%	91%	21
3 days	58	47%	−0.6%	−5.8% to +5.9%	−1.4%	+0.8%	86%	47
7 days	57	40%	−2.9%	−11.3% to +6.7%	−2.7%	−0.2%	98%	45
14 days	56	32%	−3.8%	−12.5% to +3.4%	−4.1%	+0.2%	99%	20
30 days	55	38%	−8.8%	−24.2% to +24.2%	−7.4%	−1.3%	96%	21

“Ordinary median” is the median move of WLD over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 90%).

Holding it for 7 days

Typical dip on the way−10.8%ordinary WLD: −11.2%

1 case in 4 dipped past−19.1%before day 7

Fell 10% or more on the way54%ordinary: 55%

Typical best point+11.2%highest price within 7 days

Median after costs−3.2%ordinary: −3.0%

Ahead after costs37%ordinary: 41%

Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.

Did it hold up over time?

Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 34 the gap over 7 days was 0.0%, and in the later 23 it was −1.0%. Same direction both times.

Every occurrence

One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.

Date	Close	+1d	+7d	+30d
9 Nov 2026	$0.3189	−2.3%	open	open
2 Nov 2026	$0.3780	−0.2%	−15.6%	open
26 Oct 2026	$0.4449	−1.2%	−15.0%	open
14 Sep 2026	$0.3854	−5.9%	+18.9%	+28.5%
28 Jul 2026	$0.3184	−2.5%	+0.4%	+29.4%
30 Jun 2026	$0.4067	−11.1%	−6.3%	−24.6%
23 Jun 2026	$0.5439	−2.5%	−25.2%	−29.9%
10 Jun 2026	$0.4509	+10.1%	+46.1%	−15.4%
17 May 2026	$0.2359	+2.6%	+24.3%	+186.2%
20 Apr 2026	$0.2642	−0.9%	−3.7%	−6.2%
30 Mar 2026	$0.2720	+1.6%	−10.6%	−8.8%
22 Mar 2026	$0.3080	+5.6%	−11.7%	−15.0%

The 12 most recent. All 60 are in the open data file.

The rule

Close at least 15% below the close 7 days earlier.

Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.

The same signal on other coins

Coin	Cases	Higher after 7d	Median	Gap	Verdict
XRP	58	66%	+3.2%	+3.9%	Strong evidence · leans up
JUST	40	63%	+4.1%	+3.5%	Some evidence · leans up
Prom	35	66%	+4.0%	+4.2%	Some evidence · leans up
Bitcoin	36	61%	+3.4%	+2.9%	Weak evidence
Stellar	59	63%	+2.0%	+3.2%	Weak evidence
DeXe	54	57%	+3.1%	+3.4%	Weak evidence
Litecoin	67	58%	+2.6%	+2.8%	Weak evidence
Aave	63	62%	+3.7%	+3.8%	Weak evidence

15% drop in 7 days across all 94 coins

Other Worldcoin signals

7% drop in a dayWeak evidence · 74 cases 10% rise in 3 daysWeak evidence · 67 cases 5% drop in a dayWeak evidence · 100 cases 15% drop in 3 daysWeak evidence · 38 cases 20% drop in a weekWeak evidence · 35 cases Extreme buy pressureWeak evidence · 28 cases

Full Worldcoin record

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