Theta Network signals: which ones have held up
19 common signals tested on every daily THETA candle since 10 Apr 2019 (2,776 days). 2 signals show evidence of an effect on the following week. 6 signals did no better than picking days at random.
THETA price · last close$0.128614 Nov 2026 close: $0.1286 (7d −10.8%)
RSI (14)28.1under 30
Volume vs 30-day average1.49×3× or more is a spike
Market buys, share of volume49.8%above 50%: buyers lifting offers
From all-time high−99%below the 200-day average
Trading signals, ranked by evidence
| Signal | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakout to a 90-day high | 20 | 75% | +15.2% | −0.6% | 1.9% | 90 | Strong evidence · leans up | 19 Sep 2026 |
| Volume spike on a red day | 22 | 64% | +9.1% | −0.6% | 12% | 77 | Strong evidence · leans up | 10 Oct 2025 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | 50 | 54% | +2.8% | −0.6% | 53% | 51 | Weak evidence | 5 Apr 2026 |
| Volume spike on a green day | 49 | 57% | +1.4% | −0.6% | 74% | 49 | Weak evidence | 20 Oct 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | 49 | 55% | +1.4% | −0.6% | 74% | 49 | Weak evidence | 10 May 2026 |
| 10% drop in a day | 63 | 52% | +0.9% | −0.6% | 82% | 48 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 20% drop in a week | 46 | 52% | +0.9% | −0.6% | 84% | 48 | Weak evidence | 30 Jan 2026 |
| RSI rises above 70 | 31 | 61% | +3.5% | −0.6% | 55% | 48 | Weak evidence | 22 Sep 2026 |
| Extreme sell pressure | 64 | 52% | +0.5% | −0.6% | 87% | 47 | Weak evidence | 7 Nov 2026 |
| Extreme buy pressure | 67 | 46% | −1.3% | −0.6% | 93% | 46 | Weak evidence | 9 Oct 2026 |
| 10% jump in a day | 87 | 47% | −1.0% | −0.6% | 95% | 46 | Weak evidence | 20 Oct 2026 |
| Five red days in a row | 36 | 47% | −3.0% | −0.6% | 74% | 22 | No better than chance | 25 Oct 2026 |
| RSI drops below 30 | 32 | 50% | −0.3% | −0.6% | 98% | 17 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Five green days in a row | 32 | 47% | −0.4% | −0.6% | 99% | 16 | No better than chance | 21 Aug 2026 |
| Capitulation: heavy drop on heavy volume | 16 | 38% | −3.8% | −0.6% | 78% | 14 | No better than chance | 17 Dec 2025 |
| Volatility squeeze | 28 | 50% | −0.6% | −0.6% | 100% | 14 | No better than chance | 10 Oct 2026 |
| Breakdown to a 90-day low | 24 | 50% | −0.5% | −0.6% | 100% | 12 | No better than chance | 24 Jun 2026 |
| Golden cross | 8 | 50% | −2.8% | −0.6% | 65% | Too few cases | 23 Sep 2026 | |
| Death cross | 7 | 43% | −5.3% | −0.6% | 37% | Too few cases | 1 Oct 2025 |
After drops and rallies
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40% drop in 30 days | 28 | 61% | +8.0% | −0.6% | 8.4% | 87 | Strong evidence · leans up | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 20% rise in 7 days | 67 | 55% | +2.0% | −0.6% | 55% | 50 | Weak evidence | 22 Sep 2026 |
| 15% drop in 3 days | 58 | 53% | +1.2% | −0.6% | 77% | 48 | Weak evidence | 5 Jun 2026 |
| 30% drop in 7 days | 15 | 67% | +8.3% | −0.6% | 28% | 48 | Weak evidence | 10 Oct 2025 |
| 7% rise in a day | 147 | 52% | +0.8% | −0.6% | 70% | 48 | Weak evidence | 20 Oct 2026 |
| 7% drop in a day | 136 | 46% | −1.8% | −0.6% | 76% | 47 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 50% rise in 7 days | 11 | 55% | +10.5% | −0.6% | 27% | 45 | Weak evidence | 13 May 2025 |
| 15% drop in a day | 20 | 45% | −3.2% | −0.6% | 80% | 40 | Weak evidence | 5 Feb 2026 |
| 100% rise in 30 days | 22 | 55% | +1.1% | −0.6% | 89% | 39 | Weak evidence | 14 Dec 2024 |
| 15% rise in a day | 40 | 53% | +4.2% | −0.6% | 34% | 29 | No better than chance | 21 Aug 2026 |
| 30% rise in 7 days | 39 | 56% | +3.6% | −0.6% | 46% | 27 | No better than chance | 21 Aug 2026 |
| 20% rise in 3 days | 47 | 57% | +2.0% | −0.6% | 66% | 25 | No better than chance | 19 Sep 2026 |
| 15% drop in 7 days | 85 | 52% | +0.9% | −0.6% | 77% | 23 | No better than chance | 29 Oct 2026 |
| 30% drop in 30 days | 64 | 52% | +0.8% | −0.6% | 81% | 23 | No better than chance | 9 Nov 2026 |
| 5% drop in a day | 198 | 46% | −1.6% | −0.6% | 77% | 22 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 10% drop in 3 days | 128 | 52% | +0.5% | −0.6% | 79% | 22 | No better than chance | 29 Oct 2026 |
| 10% rise in 3 days | 138 | 46% | −1.6% | −0.6% | 81% | 22 | No better than chance | 20 Sep 2026 |
| 50% rise in 30 days | 53 | 57% | +0.8% | −0.6% | 86% | 22 | No better than chance | 21 Jul 2025 |
| 5% rise in a day | 219 | 46% | −1.3% | −0.6% | 87% | 21 | No better than chance | 6 Nov 2026 |
| 20% drop in 3 days | 23 | 52% | +0.8% | −0.6% | 92% | 14 | No better than chance | 10 Oct 2025 |
| 50% drop in 30 days | 8 | 75% | +9.9% | −0.6% | 4.2% | Too few cases | 3 Jun 2022 |
When Bitcoin moves
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin jumps 5% in a day | 103 | 50% | +2.2% | −0.6% | 40% | 25 | No better than chance | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Bitcoin jumps 10% in a day | 22 | 64% | +6.3% | −0.6% | 30% | 24 | No better than chance | 6 Feb 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 5% in a day | 83 | 48% | −0.9% | −0.6% | 96% | 21 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 10% in a day | 16 | 56% | +3.5% | −0.6% | 69% | 16 | No better than chance | 5 Feb 2026 |
Returns are measured 7 days after the daily close that confirmed the signal. “Ordinary” is the median 7-day move from any day. How the proof score works.
Seen in the last 30 days
| Date | Signal | Close | +7d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Nov 2026 | Extreme sell pressure | $0.1441 | −10.8% |
| 5 Nov 2026 | RSI drops below 30 | $0.1403 | +0.1% |
| 5 Nov 2026 | 10% drop in a day | $0.1403 | +0.1% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | RSI drops below 30 | $0.1599 | −12.3% |
| 25 Oct 2026 | Five red days in a row | $0.1836 | −14.6% |
| 20 Oct 2026 | 10% jump in a day | $0.2068 | −12.6% |
| 20 Oct 2026 | Volume spike on a green day | $0.2068 | −12.6% |
Signals from the most recent daily close are sealed for a day and shown to members first.