Tellor · TRB/USDT · daily
What happens to Tellor after RSI rising above 70?
Since 2020, Tellor has shown RSI rising above 70 28 times. In the 28 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 36% of the time, with a median move of −7.4%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for TRB is −0.4%.
Weak evidence50
There is a gap, but once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 32% of the time, so it should not be relied on.
By holding period
| After | Cases | Higher | Median move | Middle half | Ordinary median | Gap | By luck | Proof score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 28 | 32% | −2.1% | −4.1% to +1.1% | 0.0% | −2.1% | 17% | 65 |
| 3 days | 28 | 43% | −1.8% | −13.2% to +7.8% | −0.1% | −1.7% | 68% | 44 |
| 7 days | 28 | 36% | −7.4% | −17.5% to +9.0% | −0.4% | −6.9% | 32% | 50 |
| 14 days | 28 | 39% | −13.6% | −21.6% to +10.9% | −1.6% | −12.0% | 21% | 60 |
| 30 days | 28 | 36% | −11.0% | −27.1% to +18.7% | −3.8% | −7.1% | 79% | 19 |
“Ordinary median” is the median move of TRB over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 2.9%).
Holding it for 7 days
Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.
Did it hold up over time?
Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 16 the gap over 7 days was −0.5%, and in the later 12 it was −14.1%. Same direction both times.
Every occurrence
One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.
| Date | Close | +1d | +7d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Aug 2026 | $18.03 | +4.3% | −3.9% | −0.3% |
| 5 Jul 2026 | $18.45 | −6.3% | −18.4% | −26.9% |
| 16 Apr 2026 | $23.44 | −12.4% | −21.0% | −26.2% |
| 27 May 2025 | $50.74 | −4.1% | −12.6% | −27.9% |
| 10 May 2025 | $37.40 | −2.9% | −17.6% | +41.9% |
| 26 Apr 2025 | $32.03 | −7.5% | −10.6% | +4.6% |
| 4 Dec 2024 | $90.65 | −1.9% | −16.4% | −25.4% |
| 10 Nov 2024 | $84.76 | −2.4% | −20.4% | −19.6% |
| 7 May 2024 | $111.0 | +15.6% | +4.6% | −5.1% |
| 21 Dec 2023 | $159.8 | +6.3% | +35.9% | −21.8% |
| 13 Dec 2023 | $123.7 | +0.8% | +4.0% | −3.1% |
| 6 Nov 2023 | $128.1 | +0.4% | −36.0% | −42.4% |
The 12 most recent. All 28 are in the open data file.
The rule
14-day RSI closes above 70 after being at or below it the day before. An RSI reading over 70 is the most widely quoted "overbought" signal in technical analysis.
Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.
The same signal on other coins
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeChain | 39 | 72% | +11.3% | +12.1% | Strong evidence · leans up |
 COTI | 33 | 58% | +8.6% | +9.8% | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Curve DAO | 21 | 57% | +12.6% | +13.2% | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Hedera | 35 | 54% | +4.0% | +5.2% | Some evidence · leans up |
 Phala Network | 24 | 33% | −8.4% | −6.9% | Some evidence · leans down |
 The Sandbox | 26 | 58% | +5.6% | +6.9% | Some evidence · leans up |
 Cardano | 43 | 63% | +3.6% | +4.4% | Weak evidence |
 Dogecoin | 38 | 55% | +2.0% | +3.0% | Weak evidence |
RSI rises above 70 across all 94 coins
Other Tellor signals
New signals are sealed in the public ledger at the daily close. Members see them immediately; everyone else sees them a day later.
See today's signals