Tellor · TRB/USDT · daily
What happens to Tellor after large-trade buying?
Since 2020, Tellor has shown large-trade buying 29 times. In the 29 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 41% of the time, with a median move of −2.4%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for TRB is −0.4%.
Weak evidence43
There is a gap, but once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 87% of the time, so it should not be relied on.
By holding period
| After | Cases | Higher | Median move | Middle half | Ordinary median | Gap | By luck | Proof score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 29 | 45% | 0.0% | −4.8% to +1.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 98% | 15 |
| 3 days | 29 | 34% | −3.0% | −6.7% to +3.0% | −0.1% | −2.9% | 44% | 47 |
| 7 days | 29 | 41% | −2.4% | −13.2% to +12.8% | −0.4% | −2.0% | 87% | 43 |
| 14 days | 29 | 59% | +6.1% | −15.1% to +15.7% | −1.6% | +7.8% | 51% | 48 |
| 30 days | 29 | 52% | +1.2% | −23.4% to +40.5% | −3.8% | +5.0% | 88% | 18 |
“Ordinary median” is the median move of TRB over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 54%).
Holding it for 7 days
Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.
Did it hold up over time?
Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 17 the gap over 7 days was −1.0%, and in the later 12 it was −3.6%. Same direction both times.
Every occurrence
One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.
| Date | Close | +1d | +7d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct 2026 | $19.49 | −4.8% | −9.3% | −23.4% |
| 22 Sep 2026 | $20.57 | −8.7% | +2.3% | −12.3% |
| 27 Jun 2026 | $13.36 | +1.2% | +20.7% | +3.8% |
| 26 Oct 2025 | $27.41 | −2.1% | −3.9% | −22.7% |
| 28 Jun 2025 | $36.68 | +6.8% | −0.4% | +7.8% |
| 29 May 2025 | $60.35 | −17.5% | −24.8% | −39.2% |
| 4 Dec 2024 | $90.65 | −1.9% | −16.4% | −25.4% |
| 10 May 2024 | $123.7 | +1.4% | −12.9% | −22.2% |
| 29 Jan 2024 | $116.3 | +1.3% | −4.2% | −4.0% |
| 8 Nov 2023 | $140.6 | −25.3% | −34.8% | −36.2% |
| 19 Oct 2023 | $59.92 | +19.0% | +91.4% | +53.3% |
| 23 Aug 2023 | $10.08 | −2.4% | +47.4% | +247.5% |
The 12 most recent. All 29 are in the open data file.
The rule
Average trade size in the top 5% of the previous 180 days, with the share of volume from market buys above 50%. When the average trade gets unusually large, bigger players are active. Here they are active while market buys outweigh market sells.
Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.
The same signal on other coins
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Dash | 40 | 38% | −4.5% | −4.1% | Weak evidence |
 Lisk | 40 | 40% | −4.7% | −4.0% | Weak evidence |
 Bitcoin Cash | 46 | 39% | −3.4% | −3.2% | Weak evidence |
 The Sandbox | 34 | 59% | +4.1% | +5.4% | Weak evidence |
 Cardano | 48 | 58% | +2.5% | +3.3% | Weak evidence |
 Stacks | 44 | 34% | −4.3% | −3.7% | Weak evidence |
 Ethereum Classic | 54 | 30% | −3.6% | −2.6% | Weak evidence |
 Amp | 36 | 28% | −4.7% | −2.4% | Weak evidence |
Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control across all 94 coins
Other Tellor signals
New signals are sealed in the public ledger at the daily close. Members see them immediately; everyone else sees them a day later.
See today's signals