20% drop in a week: does it work in crypto?
Losing a fifth of the price in a week is a washout by most standards, and a common entry point for contrarians. We counted every time it happened on 94 major coins, 3,310 scored cases in all, and measured the following 7 days against each coin's ordinary behaviour.
Coins with evidence8 of 938 lean up · 0 lean down
No better than chance38 of 93coins
Scored cases3,310since 2017
The rule. Close at least 20% below the close seven days earlier.
Coin by coin
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | Gap | By luck | Proof score | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Cosmos | 37 | 70% | +7.5% | −0.9% | +8.4% | 3.1% | 99 | Strong evidence · leans up |
 JUST | 23 | 61% | +7.0% | +0.6% | +6.4% | 7.2% | 87 | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Uniswap | 36 | 75% | +6.9% | −0.4% | +7.4% | 11% | 86 | Strong evidence · leans up |
 DeXe | 29 | 66% | +6.3% | −0.3% | +6.5% | 10% | 84 | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Ravencoin | 40 | 63% | +4.1% | −1.3% | +5.4% | 12% | 84 | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Request | 23 | 61% | +4.8% | −0.5% | +5.3% | 15% | 71 | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Basic Attention Token | 40 | 65% | +5.0% | −0.1% | +5.2% | 18% | 70 | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Litecoin | 37 | 70% | +4.4% | −0.2% | +4.6% | 22% | 61 | Some evidence · leans up |
 Algorand | 41 | 63% | +3.8% | −1.0% | +4.9% | 30% | 54 | Weak evidence |
 Zcash | 47 | 62% | +4.7% | +0.1% | +4.6% | 34% | 53 | Weak evidence |
 The Sandbox | 47 | 64% | +2.7% | −1.3% | +4.0% | 36% | 53 | Weak evidence |
 Ethereum Classic | 35 | 63% | +3.0% | −1.0% | +4.0% | 28% | 52 | Weak evidence |
 Kava | 44 | 59% | +2.9% | −0.6% | +3.5% | 45% | 52 | Weak evidence |
 1inch | 36 | 61% | +2.8% | −1.3% | +4.1% | 43% | 52 | Weak evidence |
 Axie Infinity | 40 | 57% | +1.9% | −1.2% | +3.1% | 62% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 Tellor | 56 | 61% | +3.4% | −0.4% | +3.8% | 50% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 Oasis | 46 | 35% | −4.9% | −1.4% | −3.5% | 56% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 Neo | 54 | 57% | +2.0% | −0.6% | +2.6% | 56% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 IOTA | 46 | 61% | +1.7% | −0.8% | +2.5% | 61% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 Terra Classic | 21 | 71% | +3.4% | −1.6% | +5.0% | 32% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Reserve Rights | 61 | 51% | +1.1% | −1.3% | +2.5% | 71% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Lisk | 41 | 54% | +1.1% | −0.6% | +1.7% | 78% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Radworks | 25 | 64% | +3.6% | −0.9% | +4.5% | 32% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Immutable | 35 | 60% | +2.0% | −1.7% | +3.7% | 61% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Stellar | 31 | 61% | +1.6% | −1.1% | +2.8% | 58% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Injective | 49 | 59% | +2.1% | −0.1% | +2.1% | 77% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Curve DAO | 53 | 57% | +1.2% | −0.5% | +1.7% | 79% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Theta Network | 46 | 52% | +0.9% | −0.6% | +1.5% | 84% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Solana | 34 | 62% | +2.7% | −0.3% | +3.0% | 68% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 TRON | 26 | 54% | +3.0% | +0.7% | +2.4% | 46% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 NEAR Protocol | 42 | 45% | −1.6% | −0.6% | −1.0% | 93% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Arbitrum | 20 | 65% | +4.1% | −1.7% | +5.9% | 36% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Gala | 39 | 44% | −1.8% | −3.0% | +1.2% | 92% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 XRP | 26 | 65% | +2.3% | −0.8% | +3.0% | 51% | 46 | Weak evidence |
| Worldcoin | 35 | 43% | −0.6% | −2.7% | +2.2% | 80% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Fetch.ai | 68 | 49% | −0.4% | −1.2% | +0.9% | 93% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Filecoin | 37 | 30% | −1.7% | −1.1% | −0.6% | 94% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 VeChain | 46 | 48% | −0.7% | −0.8% | +0.2% | 98% | 45 | Weak evidence |
| Convex Finance | 27 | 56% | +1.5% | −1.7% | +3.3% | 67% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 Polymesh | 23 | 65% | +2.3% | −1.6% | +3.9% | 56% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 Raydium | 38 | 50% | −1.1% | −0.9% | −0.2% | 99% | 44 | Weak evidence |
 Celestia | 30 | 47% | −0.8% | −2.7% | +1.8% | 87% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 Arkham | 26 | 50% | +0.2% | −2.5% | +2.7% | 78% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 Ethereum Name Service | 31 | 52% | +0.2% | −1.1% | +1.3% | 90% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 Memecoin | 29 | 48% | −1.6% | −3.4% | +1.9% | 84% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 Bitcoin | 20 | 60% | +2.4% | +0.5% | +1.9% | 69% | 42 | Weak evidence |
 Polkadot | 24 | 67% | +1.4% | −1.0% | +2.4% | 77% | 42 | Weak evidence |
 ApeCoin | 30 | 50% | −0.5% | −1.7% | +1.2% | 91% | 42 | Weak evidence |
 Sun | 21 | 33% | −2.6% | −0.4% | −2.2% | 64% | 42 | Weak evidence |
 Bitcoin Cash | 28 | 57% | +0.7% | −0.2% | +0.9% | 91% | 41 | Weak evidence |
 Amp | 18 | 50% | +0.3% | −2.2% | +2.6% | 64% | 41 | Weak evidence |
 PancakeSwap | 27 | 41% | −1.4% | −0.8% | −0.6% | 95% | 40 | Weak evidence |
| Floki | 26 | 42% | −0.8% | −1.9% | +1.1% | 91% | 40 | Weak evidence |
 BNB | 23 | 65% | +1.3% | +0.5% | +0.8% | 91% | 39 | Weak evidence |
 Quant | 15 | 67% | +1.1% | −1.3% | +2.4% | 74% | 39 | Weak evidence |
 Arweave | 47 | 51% | +0.8% | −1.2% | +2.1% | 75% | 24 | No better than chance |
 Stacks | 49 | 53% | +1.8% | −0.6% | +2.4% | 71% | 24 | No better than chance |
 Lido DAO | 36 | 64% | +2.5% | −1.2% | +3.7% | 59% | 24 | No better than chance |
 Phala Network | 44 | 43% | −3.6% | −1.5% | −2.1% | 72% | 24 | No better than chance |
 Chainlink | 36 | 61% | +2.7% | +0.1% | +2.5% | 71% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Horizen | 42 | 40% | −2.1% | −0.7% | −1.4% | 88% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Hedera | 36 | 53% | +0.7% | −1.2% | +1.9% | 78% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Audius | 40 | 50% | −0.5% | −1.2% | +0.7% | 93% | 22 | No better than chance |
 COTI | 53 | 49% | 0.0% | −1.3% | +1.2% | 87% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Gitcoin | 52 | 50% | −0.3% | −1.2% | +0.9% | 93% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Ethereum | 36 | 50% | +1.3% | +0.3% | +1.0% | 87% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Cardano | 37 | 46% | −2.2% | −0.8% | −1.4% | 86% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Sui | 19 | 53% | +4.5% | −1.5% | +6.0% | 42% | 21 | No better than chance |
 DODO | 51 | 47% | −1.2% | −0.8% | −0.4% | 97% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Dash | 43 | 49% | −0.8% | −0.5% | −0.3% | 97% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Harmony | 64 | 44% | −1.9% | −1.3% | −0.5% | 95% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Chiliz | 44 | 50% | +0.1% | −0.7% | +0.8% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance |
 ConstitutionDAO | 40 | 45% | −0.6% | −1.3% | +0.7% | 95% | 21 | No better than chance |
 THORChain | 46 | 48% | −0.9% | −0.3% | −0.6% | 95% | 21 | No better than chance |
 AVA (Travala) | 31 | 58% | +2.2% | −0.4% | +2.6% | 70% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Livepeer | 44 | 43% | −1.3% | −1.7% | +0.4% | 97% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Avalanche | 34 | 53% | +1.1% | −0.7% | +1.8% | 80% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Conflux | 47 | 45% | −1.7% | −1.6% | −0.1% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance |
 dYdX | 41 | 49% | −1.4% | −1.7% | +0.2% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance |
 The Graph | 39 | 38% | −1.7% | −1.8% | +0.1% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Internet Computer | 35 | 49% | −1.0% | −1.3% | +0.3% | 98% | 18 | No better than chance |
 Aave | 31 | 48% | −0.7% | −0.1% | −0.7% | 96% | 17 | No better than chance |
 ORDI | 28 | 46% | −0.4% | −1.9% | +1.5% | 90% | 17 | No better than chance |
 Prom | 20 | 60% | +2.7% | −0.2% | +2.9% | 59% | 17 | No better than chance |
 Dogecoin | 28 | 46% | −0.2% | −1.0% | +0.8% | 93% | 16 | No better than chance |
 Optimism | 30 | 47% | −1.1% | −1.4% | +0.3% | 98% | 16 | No better than chance |
 Shiba Inu | 23 | 61% | +0.4% | −1.5% | +1.9% | 80% | 16 | No better than chance |
 Cyber | 21 | 48% | −4.2% | −2.0% | −2.3% | 82% | 15 | No better than chance |
 Aptos | 19 | 42% | −3.6% | −1.5% | −2.1% | 86% | 14 | No better than chance |
 Beam | 25 | 44% | −1.5% | −0.5% | −1.0% | 95% | 14 | No better than chance |
 Pepe | 23 | 39% | −0.7% | −1.4% | +0.7% | 95% | 13 | No better than chance |
 Sei | 23 | 43% | −2.5% | −2.2% | −0.2% | 99% | 12 | No better than chance |
 Pendle | 19 | 63% | +1.6% | −0.3% | +1.8% | 92% | 12 | No better than chance |
 Nexo | 6 | 50% | +0.8% | −0.3% | +1.1% | 65% | Too few cases |
With 94 coins tested, one or two would look convincing by luck alone. A signal that only “works” on a single coin deserves less trust than one that leans the same way on many. Method.