Basic Attention Token · BAT/USDT · daily
What happens to Basic Attention Token after a 20% weekly drop?
Since 2019, Basic Attention Token has shown a 20% weekly drop 40 times. In the 40 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 65% of the time, with a median move of +5.0%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for BAT is −0.1%.
Strong evidence · leans up70
Even after allowing for every study on this site, a gap that size is luck about 18% of the time and it pointed the same way in the earlier and the later part of the history. The lean is upward.
By holding period
| After | Cases | Higher | Median move | Middle half | Ordinary median | Gap | By luck | Proof score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 40 | 63% | +2.6% | −3.6% to +9.0% | 0.0% | +2.6% | 1.2% | 100 |
| 3 days | 40 | 70% | +3.0% | −0.4% to +9.8% | +0.1% | +2.9% | 20% | 65 |
| 7 days | 40 | 65% | +5.0% | −2.6% to +10.1% | −0.1% | +5.2% | 18% | 70 |
| 14 days | 40 | 65% | +4.3% | −6.5% to +18.4% | −1.0% | +5.3% | 46% | 53 |
| 30 days | 39 | 44% | −2.8% | −14.4% to +12.9% | −3.0% | +0.1% | 99% | 20 |
“Ordinary median” is the median move of BAT over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 0.8%).
Holding it for 7 days
Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.
Did it hold up over time?
Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 24 the gap over 7 days was +7.3%, and in the later 16 it was +3.4%. Same direction both times.
Every occurrence
One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.
| Date | Close | +1d | +7d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Oct 2026 | $0.1523 | −5.0% | −17.3% | open |
| 5 Jun 2026 | $0.08490 | −1.9% | +3.4% | +6.6% |
| 30 Jan 2026 | $0.1450 | −11.6% | −14.8% | −30.3% |
| 18 Dec 2025 | $0.2136 | +4.3% | −3.0% | −1.6% |
| 14 Nov 2025 | $0.1636 | +9.8% | +8.4% | +51.3% |
| 6 Feb 2025 | $0.1689 | +1.7% | +11.0% | −7.3% |
| 19 Dec 2024 | $0.2235 | +0.9% | +9.9% | +11.4% |
| 10 Dec 2024 | $0.2671 | +8.9% | −1.7% | −7.4% |
| 5 Aug 2024 | $0.1524 | +2.7% | +7.3% | +6.0% |
| 15 Apr 2024 | $0.2479 | −1.9% | +8.0% | −5.1% |
| 18 Mar 2024 | $0.2975 | −9.6% | +12.6% | −20.3% |
| 17 Aug 2023 | $0.1669 | +2.5% | +4.1% | +5.8% |
The 12 most recent. All 40 are in the open data file.
The rule
Close at least 20% below the close seven days earlier. Losing a fifth of the price in a week is a washout by most standards, and a common entry point for contrarians.
Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.
The same signal on other coins
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Cosmos | 37 | 70% | +7.5% | +8.4% | Strong evidence · leans up |
 JUST | 23 | 61% | +7.0% | +6.4% | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Uniswap | 36 | 75% | +6.9% | +7.4% | Strong evidence · leans up |
 DeXe | 29 | 66% | +6.3% | +6.5% | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Ravencoin | 40 | 63% | +4.1% | +5.4% | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Request | 23 | 61% | +4.8% | +5.3% | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Litecoin | 37 | 70% | +4.4% | +4.6% | Some evidence · leans up |
 Algorand | 41 | 63% | +3.8% | +4.9% | Weak evidence |
20% drop in a week across all 94 coins
Other Basic Attention Token signals
Full Basic Attention Token record
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