Arkham · ARKM/USDT · daily
What happens to Arkham after Bitcoin jumps 10% in a day?
Since 2023, Arkham has shown Bitcoin jumps 10% in a day 4 times. In the 4 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 25% of the time, with a median move of −8.8%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for ARKM is −2.5%.
Too few cases
With 4 completed cases there is not enough history to judge this one.
On the day itself, the median move was +10.1% for ARKM against +11.1% for Bitcoin. ARKM had the worse day 75% of the time. The figures below start from ARKM's close on that day.
By holding period
| After | Cases | Higher | Median move | Middle half | Ordinary median | Gap | By luck | Proof score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 4 | 25% | −2.9% | −5.2% to −0.1% | −0.3% | −2.6% | 36% | |
| 3 days | 4 | 25% | −6.5% | −9.7% to −2.5% | −0.9% | −5.6% | 25% | |
| 7 days | 4 | 25% | −8.8% | −9.3% to −3.1% | −2.5% | −6.3% | 37% | |
| 14 days | 4 | 50% | −3.5% | −11.1% to +5.9% | −4.1% | +0.6% | 95% | |
| 30 days | 4 | 25% | −14.5% | −17.2% to −6.0% | −5.5% | −9.0% | 55% |
“Ordinary median” is the median move of ARKM over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 37%).
Holding it for 7 days
Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.
Every occurrence
One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.
| Date | Close | +1d | +7d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Feb 2026 | $0.1290 | −1.6% | −8.5% | −23.3% |
| 11 Nov 2024 | $2.39 | −8.2% | −9.9% | −15.2% |
| 8 Aug 2024 | $1.09 | −4.2% | −9.1% | −13.9% |
| 23 Oct 2023 | $0.3498 | +4.3% | +13.1% | +17.8% |
The 12 most recent. All 4 are in the open data file.
The rule
Bitcoin's daily close is at least 10% above its previous close. The outcome is measured on this coin, from its own close that day.
Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.
The same signal on other coins
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 BNB | 32 | 41% | −2.1% | −2.6% | Weak evidence |
 IOTA | 25 | 32% | −4.5% | −3.7% | Weak evidence |
 XRP | 25 | 36% | −2.3% | −1.5% | Weak evidence |
 Cardano | 25 | 36% | −3.0% | −2.1% | Weak evidence |
 Litecoin | 29 | 55% | +0.3% | +0.5% | Weak evidence |
 Zcash | 22 | 55% | +1.4% | +1.3% | Weak evidence |
 Theta Network | 22 | 64% | +6.3% | +6.9% | No better than chance |
 TRON | 25 | 56% | +2.5% | +1.9% | No better than chance |
Bitcoin jumps 10% in a day across all 94 coins
Other Arkham signals
New signals are sealed in the public ledger at the daily close. Members see them immediately; everyone else sees them a day later.
See today's signals