When Bitcoin drops 10% in a day: what each coin did next
We counted every time it happened on 93 major coins, 894 scored cases in all, and measured the following 7 days against each coin's ordinary behaviour.
Coins with evidence1 of 541 lean up · 0 lean down
No better than chance35 of 54coins
Scored cases894since 2017
The rule. Bitcoin's daily close is at least 10% below its previous close. The outcome is measured on this coin, from its own close that day.
Coin by coin
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | Gap | By luck | Proof score | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Cosmos | 16 | 75% | +8.4% | −0.9% | +9.3% | 17% | 64 | Some evidence · leans up |
 Dogecoin | 14 | 64% | +6.1% | −1.0% | +7.1% | 26% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Hedera | 13 | 62% | +5.1% | −1.2% | +6.3% | 43% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 Basic Attention Token | 16 | 75% | +5.6% | −0.1% | +5.8% | 43% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 Axie Infinity | 11 | 64% | +7.7% | −1.2% | +8.9% | 36% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 Litecoin | 21 | 67% | +2.9% | −0.2% | +3.2% | 61% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 Chiliz | 13 | 62% | +5.8% | −0.7% | +6.4% | 54% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 Uniswap | 11 | 64% | +5.6% | −0.4% | +6.0% | 58% | 42 | Weak evidence |
 Ethereum Classic | 17 | 53% | +2.4% | −1.0% | +3.4% | 60% | 42 | Weak evidence |
 Ravencoin | 13 | 77% | +3.5% | −1.3% | +4.8% | 58% | 42 | Weak evidence |
 Cardano | 18 | 56% | +2.7% | −0.8% | +3.6% | 64% | 41 | Weak evidence |
 Lisk | 13 | 69% | +3.7% | −0.6% | +4.3% | 66% | 41 | Weak evidence |
 IOTA | 17 | 59% | +2.8% | −0.8% | +3.6% | 68% | 41 | Weak evidence |
 Ethereum | 24 | 38% | −0.8% | +0.3% | −1.1% | 90% | 40 | Weak evidence |
 The Sandbox | 11 | 64% | +3.4% | −1.3% | +4.8% | 69% | 40 | Weak evidence |
 Audius | 11 | 64% | +2.6% | −1.2% | +3.8% | 71% | 39 | Weak evidence |
 NEAR Protocol | 11 | 9% | −5.3% | −0.6% | −4.7% | 77% | 38 | Weak evidence |
 Filecoin | 11 | 55% | +2.3% | −1.1% | +3.3% | 79% | 38 | Weak evidence |
 Oasis | 11 | 18% | −5.4% | −1.4% | −4.0% | 79% | 37 | Weak evidence |
 Avalanche | 11 | 64% | +1.2% | −0.7% | +1.9% | 90% | 34 | No better than chance |
 Polkadot | 11 | 64% | +0.6% | −1.0% | +1.5% | 93% | 34 | No better than chance |
 THORChain | 11 | 55% | +1.0% | −0.3% | +1.4% | 95% | 33 | No better than chance |
 Aave | 11 | 64% | +0.5% | −0.1% | +0.6% | 98% | 32 | No better than chance |
 Curve DAO | 11 | 55% | +0.4% | −0.5% | +0.9% | 96% | 32 | No better than chance |
 TRON | 17 | 47% | −3.9% | +0.7% | −4.6% | 22% | 29 | No better than chance |
 Stellar | 17 | 59% | +4.3% | −1.1% | +5.5% | 35% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Algorand | 14 | 71% | +7.4% | −1.0% | +8.4% | 28% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Stacks | 13 | 62% | +8.1% | −0.6% | +8.7% | 36% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Chainlink | 16 | 63% | +6.4% | +0.1% | +6.2% | 45% | 20 | No better than chance |
 DODO | 10 | 30% | −3.3% | −0.8% | −2.5% | 89% | 20 | No better than chance |
 PancakeSwap | 10 | 60% | +0.4% | −0.8% | +1.2% | 93% | 18 | No better than chance |
 Zcash | 16 | 56% | +5.5% | +0.1% | +5.4% | 57% | 17 | No better than chance |
 Conflux | 10 | 50% | −0.6% | −1.6% | +1.0% | 97% | 17 | No better than chance |
 Neo | 24 | 58% | +1.7% | −0.6% | +2.3% | 78% | 17 | No better than chance |
 Theta Network | 16 | 56% | +3.5% | −0.6% | +4.1% | 69% | 16 | No better than chance |
 1inch | 10 | 40% | −1.8% | −1.3% | −0.5% | 98% | 16 | No better than chance |
 Sun | 11 | 45% | −3.8% | −0.4% | −3.4% | 62% | 16 | No better than chance |
 Kava | 13 | 62% | +3.7% | −0.6% | +4.3% | 68% | 15 | No better than chance |
 The Graph | 11 | 55% | +3.1% | −1.8% | +4.8% | 70% | 15 | No better than chance |
 Tellor | 11 | 55% | +4.9% | −0.4% | +5.4% | 73% | 14 | No better than chance |
 BNB | 24 | 67% | +0.8% | +0.5% | +0.3% | 97% | 13 | No better than chance |
 Injective | 11 | 45% | −4.8% | −0.1% | −4.8% | 76% | 13 | No better than chance |
 JUST | 11 | 45% | −1.9% | +0.6% | −2.6% | 75% | 13 | No better than chance |
 AVA (Travala) | 11 | 64% | +3.0% | −0.4% | +3.4% | 78% | 13 | No better than chance |
 Horizen | 12 | 58% | +2.1% | −0.7% | +2.8% | 86% | 11 | No better than chance |
 XRP | 18 | 44% | −1.0% | −0.8% | −0.2% | 99% | 10 | No better than chance |
 Bitcoin Cash | 13 | 54% | +1.4% | −0.2% | +1.6% | 89% | 10 | No better than chance |
 Harmony | 15 | 47% | 0.0% | −1.3% | +1.3% | 94% | 10 | No better than chance |
 Dash | 16 | 50% | 0.0% | −0.5% | +0.5% | 97% | 9 | No better than chance |
 VeChain | 17 | 47% | −1.3% | −0.8% | −0.4% | 98% | 9 | No better than chance |
 Fetch.ai | 16 | 44% | −1.0% | −1.2% | +0.3% | 99% | 8 | No better than chance |
 Solana | 11 | 55% | +0.1% | −0.3% | +0.4% | 99% | 6 | No better than chance |
 Reserve Rights | 11 | 36% | −1.3% | −1.3% | 0.0% | 100% | 6 | No better than chance |
 COTI | 12 | 50% | −1.5% | −1.3% | −0.2% | 99% | 6 | No better than chance |
 Aptos | 1 | 0% | −10.4% | −1.5% | – | – | Too few cases | |
 Arbitrum | 1 | 100% | +3.7% | −1.7% | – | – | Too few cases | |
 Optimism | 3 | 67% | +0.4% | −1.4% | +1.9% | 82% | Too few cases | |
 Sui | 1 | 100% | +4.5% | −1.5% | – | – | Too few cases | |
 Pepe | 1 | 100% | +8.2% | −1.4% | – | – | Too few cases | |
| Worldcoin | 1 | 100% | +10.3% | −2.7% | – | – | Too few cases | |
 Quant | 7 | 71% | +5.4% | −1.3% | +6.7% | 7.6% | Too few cases | |
 Celestia | 1 | 100% | +4.2% | −2.7% | – | – | Too few cases | |
 Internet Computer | 8 | 50% | −1.1% | −1.3% | +0.3% | 95% | Too few cases | |
 Shiba Inu | 8 | 63% | +2.7% | −1.5% | +4.1% | 24% | Too few cases | |
 Arweave | 8 | 38% | −3.2% | −1.2% | −1.9% | 70% | Too few cases | |
 Sei | 1 | 100% | +3.5% | −2.2% | – | – | Too few cases | |
 Raydium | 6 | 33% | −4.1% | −0.9% | −3.2% | 56% | Too few cases | |
 Pendle | 1 | 100% | +0.4% | −0.3% | – | – | Too few cases | |
 Lido DAO | 4 | 50% | −1.0% | −1.2% | +0.2% | 97% | Too few cases | |
 Beam | 1 | 100% | +13.4% | −0.5% | – | – | Too few cases | |
 ApeCoin | 5 | 80% | +3.1% | −1.7% | +4.8% | 41% | Too few cases | |
 ORDI | 1 | 100% | +11.7% | −1.9% | – | – | Too few cases | |
 Terra Classic | 2 | 50% | −0.6% | −1.6% | +1.0% | 88% | Too few cases | |
 Gala | 6 | 33% | −5.8% | −3.0% | −2.8% | 61% | Too few cases | |
 DeXe | 7 | 43% | −3.4% | −0.3% | −3.2% | 44% | Too few cases | |
 Cyber | 1 | 100% | +21.4% | −2.0% | – | – | Too few cases | |
 Amp | 6 | 50% | +1.5% | −2.2% | +3.7% | 29% | Too few cases | |
 ConstitutionDAO | 5 | 60% | +5.1% | −1.3% | +6.4% | 35% | Too few cases | |
 dYdX | 6 | 50% | −1.2% | −1.7% | +0.5% | 93% | Too few cases | |
 Arkham | 1 | 0% | 0.0% | −2.5% | – | – | Too few cases | |
 Nexo | 4 | 50% | +2.8% | −0.3% | +3.1% | 32% | Too few cases | |
 Prom | 1 | 100% | +2.8% | −0.2% | – | – | Too few cases | |
| Convex Finance | 5 | 60% | +5.4% | −1.7% | +7.1% | 24% | Too few cases | |
 Phala Network | 7 | 43% | −5.5% | −1.5% | −4.0% | 40% | Too few cases | |
| Floki | 1 | 100% | +5.2% | −1.9% | – | – | Too few cases | |
 Ethereum Name Service | 6 | 50% | +3.5% | −1.1% | +4.6% | 37% | Too few cases | |
 Radworks | 6 | 33% | −1.5% | −0.9% | −0.6% | 87% | Too few cases | |
 Immutable | 5 | 60% | +2.0% | −1.7% | +3.7% | 58% | Too few cases | |
 Memecoin | 1 | 100% | +1.8% | −3.4% | – | – | Too few cases | |
 Gitcoin | 7 | 57% | 0.0% | −1.2% | +1.2% | 84% | Too few cases | |
 Request | 6 | 17% | −7.2% | −0.5% | −6.7% | 7.5% | Too few cases | |
 Livepeer | 7 | 57% | +0.1% | −1.7% | +1.9% | 71% | Too few cases | |
 Polymesh | 1 | 100% | +7.1% | −1.6% | – | – | Too few cases |
With 94 coins tested, one or two would look convincing by luck alone. A signal that only “works” on a single coin deserves less trust than one that leans the same way on many. Method.