Stacks · STX/USDT · daily
What happens to Stacks after Bitcoin drops 10% in a day?
Since 2019, Stacks has shown Bitcoin drops 10% in a day 13 times. In the 13 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 62% of the time, with a median move of +8.1%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for STX is −0.6%.
No better than chance22
Once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 36% of the time, so this signal has told you nothing reliable about the following week.
On the day itself, the median move was −16.9% for STX against −12.4% for Bitcoin. STX had the worse day 85% of the time. The figures below start from STX's close on that day.
By holding period
| After | Cases | Higher | Median move | Middle half | Ordinary median | Gap | By luck | Proof score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 13 | 69% | +2.9% | 0.0% to +11.6% | −0.1% | +3.0% | 19% | 59 |
| 3 days | 13 | 62% | +4.3% | −3.7% to +8.1% | −0.1% | +4.4% | 44% | 19 |
| 7 days | 13 | 62% | +8.1% | −7.4% to +18.1% | −0.6% | +8.7% | 36% | 22 |
| 14 days | 13 | 54% | +0.3% | −7.2% to +10.3% | −1.4% | +1.7% | 96% | 34 |
| 30 days | 13 | 54% | +2.9% | −14.5% to +24.3% | −2.5% | +5.4% | 94% | 10 |
“Ordinary median” is the median move of STX over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 4.1%).
Holding it for 7 days
Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.
Did it hold up over time?
Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 7 the gap over 7 days was +18.8%, and in the later 6 it was −0.5%. The direction changed, which is what a pattern produced by chance tends to do.
Every occurrence
One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.
| Date | Close | +1d | +7d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Feb 2026 | $0.2494 | +11.6% | +5.1% | +2.9% |
| 9 Nov 2022 | $0.2140 | +15.4% | +10.7% | +24.3% |
| 19 Aug 2022 | $0.3900 | 0.0% | −7.4% | −16.4% |
| 13 Jun 2022 | $0.3460 | −0.9% | +8.1% | +9.0% |
| 9 May 2022 | $0.6420 | +4.4% | −14.2% | −14.5% |
| 21 Jan 2022 | $1.67 | −15.5% | −12.4% | −26.2% |
| 7 Sep 2021 | $1.33 | +2.3% | +18.1% | +4.4% |
| 21 Jun 2021 | $0.5869 | +2.7% | +21.0% | +61.7% |
| 19 May 2021 | $0.9134 | +17.6% | +18.2% | −9.3% |
| 12 May 2021 | $1.63 | −2.5% | −44.0% | −45.7% |
| 21 Jan 2021 | $0.4529 | +5.2% | −2.4% | +69.5% |
| 3 Sep 2020 | $0.1811 | +2.9% | +13.9% | −14.1% |
The 12 most recent. All 13 are in the open data file.
The rule
Bitcoin's daily close is at least 10% below its previous close. The outcome is measured on this coin, from its own close that day.
Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.
The same signal on other coins
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Litecoin | 21 | 67% | +2.9% | +3.2% | Weak evidence |
 Ethereum | 24 | 38% | −0.8% | −1.1% | Weak evidence |
 Neo | 24 | 58% | +1.7% | +2.3% | No better than chance |
 BNB | 24 | 67% | +0.8% | +0.3% | No better than chance |
Bitcoin drops 10% in a day across all 94 coins
Other Stacks signals
New signals are sealed in the public ledger at the daily close. Members see them immediately; everyone else sees them a day later.
See today's signals