What happens to dYdX after Bitcoin drops 10% in a day?

Since 2021, dYdX has shown Bitcoin drops 10% in a day 6 times. In the 6 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 50% of the time, with a median move of −1.2%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for DYDX is −1.7%.

Too few cases

With 6 completed cases there is not enough history to judge this one.

On the day itself, the median move was −6.9% for DYDX against −12.8% for Bitcoin. DYDX had the worse day 33% of the time. The figures below start from DYDX's close on that day.

Cases since 20216last on 5 Feb 2026

Higher after 7 days50%ordinary: 44%

Median 7-day move−1.2%ordinary: −1.7%

Could be luck93%allowing for 3,572 studies

Worst / best case−34% / +74%over 7 days

Median path after the signalMiddle half of casesOrdinary DYDX drift

Price change relative to the close on the signal day. Based on the 6 cases with a full 30 days of history after them.

By holding period

After	Cases	Higher	Median move	Middle half	Ordinary median	Gap	By luck
1 day	6	50%	−0.5%	−3.7% to +7.6%	−0.2%	−0.4%	86%
3 days	6	50%	−0.1%	−22.4% to +4.4%	−0.7%	+0.7%	86%
7 days	6	50%	−1.2%	−21.8% to +8.6%	−1.7%	+0.5%	93%
14 days	6	33%	−6.9%	−18.3% to +15.6%	−3.9%	−3.1%	70%
30 days	6	33%	−25.7%	−30.2% to +8.9%	−7.8%	−17.9%	12%

“Ordinary median” is the median move of DYDX over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 93%).

Holding it for 7 days

Typical dip on the way−11.8%ordinary DYDX: −10.2%

1 case in 4 dipped past−32.3%before day 7

Fell 10% or more on the way67%ordinary: 51%

Typical best point+13.9%highest price within 7 days

Median after costs−1.5%ordinary: −2.0%

Ahead after costs33%ordinary: 43%

Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.

Every occurrence

One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.

Date	Close	+1d	+7d	+30d
5 Feb 2026	$0.1060	+9.5%	−2.5%	−24.1%
9 Nov 2022	$1.33	+29.5%	+74.4%	+19.9%
19 Aug 2022	$1.65	−2.8%	+0.1%	−27.3%
13 Jun 2022	$1.16	+1.7%	+11.4%	+56.4%
9 May 2022	$2.84	−3.9%	−34.4%	−41.9%
21 Jan 2022	$8.29	−22.1%	−28.2%	−31.1%

The 12 most recent. All 6 are in the open data file.

The rule

Bitcoin's daily close is at least 10% below its previous close. The outcome is measured on this coin, from its own close that day.

Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.

The same signal on other coins

Coin	Cases	Higher after 7d	Median	Gap	Verdict
Litecoin	21	67%	+2.9%	+3.2%	Weak evidence
Ethereum	24	38%	−0.8%	−1.1%	Weak evidence
Neo	24	58%	+1.7%	+2.3%	No better than chance
BNB	24	67%	+0.8%	+0.3%	No better than chance

Bitcoin drops 10% in a day across all 94 coins

Other dYdX signals

20% rise in 7 daysWeak evidence · 40 cases Bitcoin drops 5% in a dayWeak evidence · 46 cases 30% drop in 30 daysWeak evidence · 72 cases 30% rise in 7 daysWeak evidence · 21 cases 10% jump in a dayWeak evidence · 49 cases 7% drop in a dayWeak evidence · 91 cases

Full dYdX record

Want to know the moment this fires again?

New signals are sealed in the public ledger at the daily close. Members see them immediately; everyone else sees them a day later.

See today's signals