Volume spike on a red day: does it work in crypto?
A surge of volume on a down day is read two opposite ways: as panic that marks a low, or as distribution before more selling. We counted every time it happened on 94 major coins, 1,861 scored cases in all, and measured the following 7 days against each coin's ordinary behaviour.
Coins with evidence6 of 875 lean up · 1 lean down
No better than chance45 of 87coins
Scored cases1,861since 2017
The rule. Daily volume at least 3× its previous 30-day average, and the day closes below its open.
Coin by coin
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | Gap | By luck | Proof score | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Harmony | 25 | 68% | +11.6% | −1.3% | +12.9% | 5.8% | 91 | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Oasis | 12 | 75% | +17.9% | −1.4% | +19.3% | 4.0% | 86 | Strong evidence · leans up |
 XRP | 26 | 58% | +5.2% | −0.8% | +5.9% | 8.9% | 85 | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Theta Network | 22 | 64% | +9.1% | −0.6% | +9.7% | 12% | 77 | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Bitcoin | 20 | 60% | +5.1% | +0.5% | +4.7% | 21% | 58 | Some evidence · leans up |
 Neo | 40 | 33% | −5.2% | −0.6% | −4.6% | 27% | 55 | Some evidence · leans down |
 Ethereum Classic | 37 | 54% | +1.7% | −1.0% | +2.7% | 51% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 Terra Classic | 17 | 71% | +4.6% | −1.6% | +6.2% | 26% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Horizen | 24 | 29% | −6.8% | −0.7% | −6.1% | 38% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Basic Attention Token | 33 | 61% | +3.1% | −0.1% | +3.2% | 56% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Tellor | 35 | 40% | −4.0% | −0.4% | −3.6% | 68% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Audius | 32 | 56% | +1.4% | −1.2% | +2.6% | 63% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Stellar | 30 | 53% | +1.1% | −1.1% | +2.3% | 68% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Zcash | 24 | 58% | +5.1% | +0.1% | +5.0% | 49% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 JUST | 21 | 43% | −3.0% | +0.6% | −3.6% | 44% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Litecoin | 21 | 43% | −3.7% | −0.2% | −3.5% | 57% | 44 | Weak evidence |
 Bitcoin Cash | 34 | 50% | −1.1% | −0.2% | −0.9% | 91% | 44 | Weak evidence |
 Solana | 17 | 76% | +4.6% | −0.3% | +4.9% | 61% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 Kava | 15 | 67% | +4.5% | −0.6% | +5.1% | 55% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 Celestia | 11 | 18% | −10.3% | −2.7% | −7.6% | 56% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 dYdX | 19 | 11% | −6.6% | −1.7% | −4.9% | 59% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 Radworks | 25 | 40% | −2.9% | −0.9% | −2.0% | 75% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 Immutable | 14 | 64% | +4.3% | −1.7% | +6.0% | 56% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 Ravencoin | 27 | 41% | −3.3% | −1.3% | −2.0% | 79% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 Request | 28 | 39% | −1.5% | −0.5% | −1.1% | 86% | 42 | Weak evidence |
 Hedera | 29 | 48% | −0.5% | −1.2% | +0.7% | 94% | 41 | Weak evidence |
 Curve DAO | 20 | 55% | +3.0% | −0.5% | +3.5% | 74% | 41 | Weak evidence |
 Axie Infinity | 21 | 57% | +1.5% | −1.2% | +2.7% | 79% | 41 | Weak evidence |
 Nexo | 13 | 69% | +2.1% | −0.3% | +2.4% | 62% | 41 | Weak evidence |
 Dogecoin | 24 | 50% | +0.3% | −1.0% | +1.2% | 87% | 40 | Weak evidence |
 Chainlink | 27 | 59% | +0.9% | +0.1% | +0.8% | 94% | 40 | Weak evidence |
 Arweave | 18 | 17% | −4.6% | −1.2% | −3.4% | 74% | 40 | Weak evidence |
 The Graph | 15 | 60% | +2.3% | −1.8% | +4.0% | 70% | 40 | Weak evidence |
 Prom | 18 | 33% | −2.4% | −0.2% | −2.2% | 71% | 40 | Weak evidence |
| Worldcoin | 15 | 27% | −6.8% | −2.7% | −4.1% | 75% | 39 | Weak evidence |
 Stacks | 25 | 48% | −1.7% | −0.6% | −1.1% | 94% | 39 | Weak evidence |
 BNB | 22 | 50% | −0.3% | +0.5% | −0.7% | 93% | 38 | Weak evidence |
 Aave | 15 | 27% | −3.1% | −0.1% | −3.1% | 82% | 38 | Weak evidence |
 Lido DAO | 16 | 38% | −4.3% | −1.2% | −3.1% | 80% | 38 | Weak evidence |
 ConstitutionDAO | 16 | 56% | +1.3% | −1.3% | +2.6% | 84% | 37 | Weak evidence |
 Memecoin | 12 | 50% | −0.9% | −3.4% | +2.5% | 87% | 36 | Weak evidence |
 Polymesh | 20 | 45% | −1.0% | −1.6% | +0.5% | 97% | 36 | Weak evidence |
 Internet Computer | 14 | 29% | −2.3% | −1.3% | −1.0% | 95% | 34 | No better than chance |
 THORChain | 14 | 64% | +1.0% | −0.3% | +1.3% | 94% | 34 | No better than chance |
 Ethereum Name Service | 13 | 38% | −1.8% | −1.1% | −0.7% | 97% | 33 | No better than chance |
 Quant | 10 | 50% | +6.4% | −1.3% | +7.7% | 27% | 30 | No better than chance |
| Convex Finance | 10 | 70% | +4.3% | −1.7% | +6.1% | 60% | 26 | No better than chance |
| Floki | 10 | 30% | −7.8% | −1.9% | −5.9% | 61% | 26 | No better than chance |
 Chiliz | 28 | 54% | +4.7% | −0.7% | +5.4% | 37% | 24 | No better than chance |
 Lisk | 31 | 42% | −3.6% | −0.6% | −3.0% | 62% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Aptos | 11 | 64% | +7.4% | −1.5% | +8.9% | 32% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Reserve Rights | 22 | 55% | +4.4% | −1.3% | +5.7% | 54% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Ethereum | 24 | 63% | +3.2% | +0.3% | +2.9% | 61% | 19 | No better than chance |
 Uniswap | 16 | 56% | +5.5% | −0.4% | +5.9% | 48% | 19 | No better than chance |
 Shiba Inu | 21 | 62% | +1.9% | −1.5% | +3.4% | 58% | 19 | No better than chance |
 Conflux | 22 | 55% | +2.8% | −1.6% | +4.3% | 60% | 19 | No better than chance |
 DODO | 24 | 42% | −4.2% | −0.8% | −3.3% | 71% | 18 | No better than chance |
 Cardano | 24 | 54% | +1.8% | −0.8% | +2.7% | 71% | 17 | No better than chance |
 Phala Network | 17 | 59% | +2.8% | −1.5% | +4.3% | 61% | 17 | No better than chance |
 Pepe | 10 | 50% | −0.9% | −1.4% | +0.6% | 98% | 16 | No better than chance |
 The Sandbox | 21 | 52% | +1.8% | −1.3% | +3.1% | 73% | 16 | No better than chance |
 Amp | 28 | 39% | −2.9% | −2.2% | −0.6% | 93% | 16 | No better than chance |
 Sun | 28 | 46% | −0.9% | −0.4% | −0.6% | 93% | 16 | No better than chance |
 Polkadot | 16 | 56% | +2.3% | −1.0% | +3.3% | 73% | 15 | No better than chance |
 Cosmos | 23 | 43% | −2.4% | −0.9% | −1.5% | 89% | 15 | No better than chance |
 Fetch.ai | 23 | 48% | −3.8% | −1.2% | −2.5% | 84% | 15 | No better than chance |
 Algorand | 21 | 52% | +1.1% | −1.0% | +2.1% | 86% | 15 | No better than chance |
 TRON | 20 | 60% | +1.7% | +0.7% | +1.0% | 86% | 14 | No better than chance |
 Raydium | 21 | 38% | −3.1% | −0.9% | −2.2% | 86% | 14 | No better than chance |
 DeXe | 26 | 46% | −0.7% | −0.3% | −0.4% | 97% | 14 | No better than chance |
 VeChain | 27 | 44% | −1.2% | −0.8% | −0.3% | 98% | 14 | No better than chance |
 Gitcoin | 17 | 41% | −4.3% | −1.2% | −3.2% | 79% | 14 | No better than chance |
 NEAR Protocol | 19 | 53% | +1.7% | −0.6% | +2.3% | 87% | 13 | No better than chance |
 Injective | 19 | 37% | −2.6% | −0.1% | −2.5% | 86% | 13 | No better than chance |
 PancakeSwap | 19 | 47% | −2.3% | −0.8% | −1.5% | 87% | 13 | No better than chance |
 Dash | 23 | 57% | +0.3% | −0.5% | +0.8% | 94% | 13 | No better than chance |
 COTI | 21 | 48% | −2.9% | −1.3% | −1.7% | 90% | 13 | No better than chance |
 1inch | 20 | 45% | −3.0% | −1.3% | −1.7% | 90% | 13 | No better than chance |
 IOTA | 22 | 50% | +0.1% | −0.8% | +0.9% | 94% | 13 | No better than chance |
 AVA (Travala) | 23 | 48% | −0.7% | −0.4% | −0.3% | 98% | 12 | No better than chance |
 Livepeer | 22 | 36% | −2.1% | −1.7% | −0.3% | 98% | 12 | No better than chance |
 Filecoin | 22 | 41% | −1.1% | −1.1% | −0.1% | 100% | 11 | No better than chance |
 Optimism | 14 | 50% | +0.8% | −1.4% | +2.3% | 88% | 11 | No better than chance |
 Gala | 18 | 44% | −3.5% | −3.0% | −0.5% | 98% | 10 | No better than chance |
 Avalanche | 16 | 44% | −0.6% | −0.7% | +0.1% | 100% | 8 | No better than chance |
 ApeCoin | 12 | 42% | −1.2% | −1.7% | +0.5% | 98% | 7 | No better than chance |
 ORDI | 12 | 33% | −1.9% | −1.9% | 0.0% | 100% | 6 | No better than chance |
 Arbitrum | 8 | 63% | +2.6% | −1.7% | +4.3% | 33% | Too few cases | |
 Sui | 7 | 57% | +0.7% | −1.5% | +2.3% | 67% | Too few cases | |
 Sei | 9 | 44% | −0.9% | −2.2% | +1.3% | 80% | Too few cases | |
 Pendle | 7 | 29% | −1.3% | −0.3% | −1.0% | 87% | Too few cases | |
 Beam | 7 | 29% | −6.6% | −0.5% | −6.1% | 30% | Too few cases | |
 Cyber | 5 | 40% | −1.3% | −2.0% | +0.7% | 90% | Too few cases | |
 Arkham | 9 | 44% | −3.7% | −2.5% | −1.2% | 82% | Too few cases |
With 94 coins tested, one or two would look convincing by luck alone. A signal that only “works” on a single coin deserves less trust than one that leans the same way on many. Method.