RSI rises above 70: does it work in crypto?
An RSI reading over 70 is the most widely quoted "overbought" signal in technical analysis. We counted every time it happened on 94 major coins, 2,481 scored cases in all, and measured the following 7 days against each coin's ordinary behaviour.
Coins with evidence8 of 936 lean up · 2 lean down
No better than chance47 of 93coins
Scored cases2,481since 2017
The rule. 14-day RSI closes above 70 after being at or below it the day before.
Coin by coin
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | Gap | By luck | Proof score | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeChain | 39 | 72% | +11.3% | −0.8% | +12.1% | 1.9% | 100 | Strong evidence · leans up |
 COTI | 33 | 58% | +8.6% | −1.3% | +9.8% | 6.6% | 93 | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Curve DAO | 21 | 57% | +12.6% | −0.5% | +13.2% | 3.1% | 91 | Strong evidence · leans up |
| Convex Finance | 18 | 61% | +12.2% | −1.7% | +13.9% | 2.8% | 89 | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Request | 16 | 19% | −10.0% | −0.5% | −9.5% | 4.0% | 88 | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Hedera | 35 | 54% | +4.0% | −1.2% | +5.2% | 22% | 59 | Some evidence · leans up |
 Phala Network | 24 | 33% | −8.4% | −1.5% | −6.9% | 21% | 58 | Some evidence · leans down |
 The Sandbox | 26 | 58% | +5.6% | −1.3% | +6.9% | 22% | 57 | Some evidence · leans up |
 Cardano | 43 | 63% | +3.6% | −0.8% | +4.4% | 25% | 54 | Weak evidence |
 Dogecoin | 38 | 55% | +2.0% | −1.0% | +3.0% | 43% | 52 | Weak evidence |
 Dash | 33 | 67% | +4.1% | −0.5% | +4.6% | 31% | 52 | Weak evidence |
 Algorand | 29 | 59% | +5.5% | −1.0% | +6.5% | 25% | 52 | Weak evidence |
 Bitcoin | 60 | 63% | +2.2% | +0.5% | +1.7% | 46% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 Zcash | 45 | 58% | +3.8% | +0.1% | +3.7% | 48% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 Lisk | 28 | 64% | +4.9% | −0.6% | +5.5% | 25% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 Tellor | 28 | 36% | −7.4% | −0.4% | −6.9% | 32% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 Quant | 23 | 57% | +3.1% | −1.3% | +4.5% | 32% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Horizen | 30 | 40% | −5.8% | −0.7% | −5.1% | 44% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Ethereum | 53 | 53% | +1.7% | +0.3% | +1.4% | 76% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Polkadot | 24 | 58% | +4.5% | −1.0% | +5.4% | 36% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Litecoin | 43 | 42% | −1.4% | −0.2% | −1.2% | 82% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Uniswap | 32 | 38% | −4.0% | −0.4% | −3.6% | 58% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Cosmos | 30 | 60% | +3.4% | −0.9% | +4.2% | 46% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 PancakeSwap | 23 | 61% | +4.1% | −0.8% | +4.9% | 36% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Theta Network | 31 | 61% | +3.5% | −0.6% | +4.0% | 55% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 IOTA | 31 | 61% | +2.5% | −0.8% | +3.3% | 58% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Avalanche | 29 | 66% | +3.1% | −0.7% | +3.8% | 56% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Filecoin | 26 | 54% | +2.9% | −1.1% | +4.0% | 52% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Injective | 31 | 61% | +3.9% | −0.1% | +4.0% | 63% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 DODO | 22 | 64% | +5.0% | −0.8% | +5.9% | 41% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Harmony | 32 | 56% | +2.6% | −1.3% | +3.9% | 61% | 47 | Weak evidence |
| Floki | 15 | 33% | −9.6% | −1.9% | −7.8% | 36% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 1inch | 22 | 41% | −6.3% | −1.3% | −5.0% | 43% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Ravencoin | 24 | 33% | −6.0% | −1.3% | −4.6% | 39% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Terra Classic | 12 | 42% | −8.8% | −1.6% | −7.2% | 25% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Immutable | 20 | 60% | +8.1% | −1.7% | +9.7% | 15% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Stellar | 36 | 47% | −0.5% | −1.1% | +0.6% | 94% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 Reserve Rights | 31 | 42% | −4.5% | −1.3% | −3.2% | 73% | 45 | Weak evidence |
| Worldcoin | 17 | 24% | −9.3% | −2.7% | −6.5% | 53% | 44 | Weak evidence |
 JUST | 32 | 50% | −0.5% | +0.6% | −1.1% | 83% | 44 | Weak evidence |
 Beam | 14 | 79% | +6.2% | −0.5% | +6.7% | 52% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 Solana | 33 | 52% | +0.2% | −0.3% | +0.5% | 97% | 42 | Weak evidence |
 Sun | 25 | 40% | −1.7% | −0.4% | −1.4% | 79% | 42 | Weak evidence |
 The Graph | 26 | 46% | −3.1% | −1.8% | −1.4% | 91% | 41 | Weak evidence |
 Sui | 16 | 56% | +2.2% | −1.5% | +3.7% | 71% | 40 | Weak evidence |
 ConstitutionDAO | 18 | 44% | −2.6% | −1.3% | −1.3% | 94% | 36 | Weak evidence |
 BNB | 51 | 61% | +2.5% | +0.5% | +2.0% | 53% | 26 | No better than chance |
 Fetch.ai | 41 | 51% | +1.2% | −1.2% | +2.4% | 78% | 24 | No better than chance |
 THORChain | 30 | 60% | +5.2% | −0.3% | +5.5% | 38% | 24 | No better than chance |
 Chiliz | 41 | 49% | −2.0% | −0.7% | −1.4% | 87% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Basic Attention Token | 35 | 57% | +2.4% | −0.1% | +2.5% | 67% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Neo | 43 | 51% | +0.9% | −0.6% | +1.5% | 81% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Chainlink | 43 | 47% | −0.7% | +0.1% | −0.9% | 92% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Stacks | 42 | 50% | +0.5% | −0.6% | +1.1% | 91% | 22 | No better than chance |
 TRON | 50 | 52% | +0.9% | +0.7% | +0.2% | 95% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Ethereum Classic | 40 | 48% | −0.7% | −1.0% | +0.3% | 96% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Kava | 27 | 52% | +2.9% | −0.6% | +3.5% | 58% | 21 | No better than chance |
 ORDI | 11 | 36% | −11.6% | −1.9% | −9.7% | 37% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Nexo | 15 | 60% | +3.1% | −0.3% | +3.4% | 39% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Oasis | 36 | 44% | −2.7% | −1.4% | −1.3% | 90% | 20 | No better than chance |
 AVA (Travala) | 31 | 52% | +1.7% | −0.4% | +2.1% | 78% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Celestia | 10 | 40% | −5.2% | −2.7% | −2.5% | 90% | 19 | No better than chance |
 XRP | 33 | 48% | −0.1% | −0.8% | +0.6% | 93% | 18 | No better than chance |
 Bitcoin Cash | 30 | 43% | −1.6% | −0.2% | −1.4% | 83% | 18 | No better than chance |
 Cyber | 10 | 40% | −3.7% | −2.0% | −1.8% | 93% | 18 | No better than chance |
 NEAR Protocol | 32 | 50% | +0.1% | −0.6% | +0.7% | 96% | 17 | No better than chance |
 Arbitrum | 17 | 53% | +2.5% | −1.7% | +4.2% | 63% | 17 | No better than chance |
 Gala | 16 | 50% | +2.2% | −3.0% | +5.2% | 59% | 17 | No better than chance |
 DeXe | 26 | 54% | +1.4% | −0.3% | +1.6% | 82% | 17 | No better than chance |
 Amp | 17 | 59% | +0.8% | −2.2% | +3.1% | 58% | 17 | No better than chance |
 Raydium | 23 | 52% | +1.6% | −0.9% | +2.5% | 80% | 16 | No better than chance |
 Axie Infinity | 31 | 48% | −1.0% | −1.2% | +0.2% | 99% | 16 | No better than chance |
 Aave | 29 | 45% | −0.4% | −0.1% | −0.3% | 98% | 15 | No better than chance |
 Lido DAO | 18 | 56% | +2.5% | −1.2% | +3.7% | 74% | 15 | No better than chance |
 Arkham | 10 | 40% | −2.3% | −2.5% | +0.2% | 99% | 15 | No better than chance |
 Gitcoin | 20 | 40% | −4.2% | −1.2% | −3.1% | 79% | 15 | No better than chance |
 Pepe | 17 | 47% | −4.9% | −1.4% | −3.5% | 77% | 14 | No better than chance |
 Internet Computer | 22 | 50% | +0.3% | −1.3% | +1.7% | 87% | 14 | No better than chance |
 Audius | 25 | 48% | −0.3% | −1.2% | +0.9% | 93% | 14 | No better than chance |
 Shiba Inu | 20 | 45% | −2.6% | −1.5% | −1.1% | 92% | 13 | No better than chance |
 Pendle | 17 | 53% | +2.8% | −0.3% | +3.0% | 83% | 13 | No better than chance |
 dYdX | 15 | 53% | +1.7% | −1.7% | +3.4% | 79% | 13 | No better than chance |
 Radworks | 16 | 38% | −2.8% | −0.9% | −1.9% | 82% | 13 | No better than chance |
 Optimism | 18 | 44% | −2.9% | −1.4% | −1.5% | 93% | 12 | No better than chance |
 Conflux | 24 | 42% | −1.6% | −1.6% | 0.0% | 100% | 12 | No better than chance |
 Livepeer | 15 | 53% | +0.7% | −1.7% | +2.4% | 87% | 12 | No better than chance |
 Arweave | 19 | 47% | −0.2% | −1.2% | +1.1% | 94% | 11 | No better than chance |
 Prom | 17 | 59% | +0.8% | −0.2% | +1.0% | 92% | 11 | No better than chance |
 Aptos | 14 | 36% | −3.0% | −1.5% | −1.4% | 93% | 10 | No better than chance |
 Polymesh | 17 | 41% | −2.3% | −1.6% | −0.7% | 97% | 10 | No better than chance |
 Sei | 14 | 43% | −0.9% | −2.2% | +1.3% | 94% | 9 | No better than chance |
 ApeCoin | 15 | 47% | −0.9% | −1.7% | +0.8% | 96% | 9 | No better than chance |
 Ethereum Name Service | 18 | 44% | −0.9% | −1.1% | +0.2% | 99% | 9 | No better than chance |
 Memecoin | 3 | 67% | +8.7% | −3.4% | +12.2% | 15% | Too few cases |
With 94 coins tested, one or two would look convincing by luck alone. A signal that only “works” on a single coin deserves less trust than one that leans the same way on many. Method.