ConstitutionDAO · PEOPLE/USDT · daily
What happens to ConstitutionDAO after RSI rising above 70?
Since 2021, ConstitutionDAO has shown RSI rising above 70 18 times. In the 18 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 44% of the time, with a median move of −2.6%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for PEOPLE is −1.3%.
Weak evidence36
There is a gap, but once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 94% of the time, so it should not be relied on.
By holding period
| After | Cases | Higher | Median move | Middle half | Ordinary median | Gap | By luck | Proof score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 18 | 44% | −1.1% | −3.9% to +7.3% | −0.1% | −1.0% | 66% | 14 |
| 3 days | 18 | 56% | +0.4% | −6.2% to +8.0% | −0.6% | +1.0% | 88% | 12 |
| 7 days | 18 | 44% | −2.6% | −16.3% to +5.8% | −1.3% | −1.3% | 94% | 36 |
| 14 days | 18 | 50% | +1.1% | −14.8% to +23.7% | −2.5% | +3.6% | 86% | 38 |
| 30 days | 18 | 44% | −2.6% | −14.8% to +10.7% | −5.5% | +2.9% | 95% | 36 |
“Ordinary median” is the median move of PEOPLE over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 71%).
Holding it for 7 days
Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.
Did it hold up over time?
Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 10 the gap over 7 days was −1.3%, and in the later 8 it was −2.8%. Same direction both times.
Every occurrence
One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.
| Date | Close | +1d | +7d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Aug 2026 | $0.01052 | +8.0% | −20.8% | −14.4% |
| 6 Aug 2026 | $0.00744 | −4.0% | +4.3% | +10.6% |
| 27 Jul 2026 | $0.00679 | −0.4% | +4.1% | +16.9% |
| 16 Apr 2026 | $0.00876 | −7.4% | −12.3% | −18.7% |
| 9 May 2025 | $0.01974 | +10.3% | +22.9% | +2.8% |
| 27 Sep 2024 | $0.08143 | −1.8% | −17.7% | −10.2% |
| 8 Jun 2024 | $0.1350 | −6.2% | −17.2% | −58.9% |
| 31 May 2024 | $0.08525 | +29.2% | +27.9% | +10.8% |
| 15 May 2024 | $0.05075 | −2.0% | +29.5% | +129.5% |
| 29 Feb 2024 | $0.04613 | +7.3% | −1.4% | −15.0% |
| 11 Jan 2024 | $0.04006 | −3.7% | −20.2% | −30.3% |
| 3 Jan 2024 | $0.02194 | +7.3% | +57.1% | +17.0% |
The 12 most recent. All 18 are in the open data file.
The rule
14-day RSI closes above 70 after being at or below it the day before. An RSI reading over 70 is the most widely quoted "overbought" signal in technical analysis.
Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.
The same signal on other coins
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeChain | 39 | 72% | +11.3% | +12.1% | Strong evidence · leans up |
 COTI | 33 | 58% | +8.6% | +9.8% | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Curve DAO | 21 | 57% | +12.6% | +13.2% | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Hedera | 35 | 54% | +4.0% | +5.2% | Some evidence · leans up |
 Phala Network | 24 | 33% | −8.4% | −6.9% | Some evidence · leans down |
 The Sandbox | 26 | 58% | +5.6% | +6.9% | Some evidence · leans up |
 Cardano | 43 | 63% | +3.6% | +4.4% | Weak evidence |
 Dogecoin | 38 | 55% | +2.0% | +3.0% | Weak evidence |
RSI rises above 70 across all 94 coins
Other ConstitutionDAO signals
New signals are sealed in the public ledger at the daily close. Members see them immediately; everyone else sees them a day later.
See today's signals