After a 15% drop in 3 days: what happened next, coin by coin
We counted every time it happened on 94 major coins, 4,029 scored cases in all, and measured the following 7 days against each coin's ordinary behaviour.
Coins with evidence2 of 931 lean up · 1 lean down
No better than chance51 of 93coins
Scored cases4,029since 2017
The rule. Close at least 15% below the close 3 days earlier.
Coin by coin
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | Gap | By luck | Proof score | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Prom | 29 | 66% | +7.3% | −0.2% | +7.5% | 5.5% | 94 | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Request | 23 | 17% | −6.4% | −0.5% | −5.9% | 8.6% | 84 | Strong evidence · leans down |
 XRP | 42 | 60% | +2.4% | −0.8% | +3.1% | 32% | 54 | Weak evidence |
 Uniswap | 45 | 62% | +4.4% | −0.4% | +4.8% | 29% | 54 | Weak evidence |
 Dogecoin | 39 | 67% | +2.4% | −1.0% | +3.3% | 34% | 53 | Weak evidence |
 Cosmos | 50 | 54% | +3.2% | −0.9% | +4.0% | 34% | 53 | Weak evidence |
 Kava | 59 | 61% | +3.2% | −0.6% | +3.8% | 29% | 53 | Weak evidence |
 Phala Network | 52 | 37% | −4.9% | −1.5% | −3.4% | 41% | 52 | Weak evidence |
 The Sandbox | 52 | 54% | +1.8% | −1.3% | +3.1% | 50% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 DeXe | 42 | 57% | +2.4% | −0.3% | +2.7% | 53% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 Raydium | 43 | 44% | −3.6% | −0.9% | −2.8% | 67% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 VeChain | 50 | 58% | +1.5% | −0.8% | +2.3% | 63% | 50 | Weak evidence |
| Convex Finance | 45 | 36% | −4.4% | −1.7% | −2.6% | 61% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 Oasis | 51 | 29% | −4.5% | −1.4% | −3.1% | 63% | 50 | Weak evidence |
 TRON | 34 | 44% | −1.2% | +0.7% | −1.9% | 50% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 ApeCoin | 33 | 33% | −5.2% | −1.7% | −3.5% | 57% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Reserve Rights | 69 | 41% | −3.7% | −1.3% | −2.4% | 70% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Gala | 50 | 34% | −4.6% | −3.0% | −1.6% | 83% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Theta Network | 58 | 53% | +1.2% | −0.6% | +1.8% | 77% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Gitcoin | 59 | 37% | −3.0% | −1.2% | −1.9% | 79% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Ethereum Classic | 43 | 44% | −0.3% | −1.0% | +0.7% | 90% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Zcash | 49 | 45% | −1.0% | +0.1% | −1.1% | 89% | 47 | Weak evidence |
| Worldcoin | 38 | 47% | −1.1% | −2.7% | +1.6% | 86% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Lido DAO | 38 | 50% | +0.5% | −1.2% | +1.7% | 86% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Terra Classic | 24 | 63% | +2.0% | −1.6% | +3.6% | 48% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Axie Infinity | 50 | 50% | −0.1% | −1.2% | +1.1% | 90% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Immutable | 42 | 43% | −0.5% | −1.7% | +1.2% | 92% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Solana | 38 | 58% | +0.8% | −0.3% | +1.1% | 92% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 BNB | 38 | 63% | +1.3% | +0.5% | +0.9% | 87% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Polkadot | 31 | 58% | +1.7% | −1.0% | +2.7% | 68% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 PancakeSwap | 33 | 42% | −2.6% | −0.8% | −1.8% | 76% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Stacks | 63 | 49% | −0.2% | −0.6% | +0.5% | 95% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 1inch | 40 | 43% | −1.7% | −1.3% | −0.4% | 98% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Curve DAO | 71 | 49% | −0.5% | −0.5% | +0.1% | 100% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 Radworks | 29 | 41% | −3.2% | −0.9% | −2.3% | 68% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 Arkham | 31 | 29% | −4.8% | −2.5% | −2.2% | 80% | 44 | Weak evidence |
 Cyber | 27 | 44% | −4.2% | −2.0% | −2.3% | 79% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 Polymesh | 25 | 52% | +1.2% | −1.6% | +2.8% | 69% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 Arbitrum | 24 | 50% | +0.7% | −1.7% | +2.4% | 78% | 42 | Weak evidence |
 Amp | 21 | 48% | −0.1% | −2.2% | +2.1% | 70% | 42 | Weak evidence |
 Pepe | 28 | 25% | −2.6% | −1.4% | −1.2% | 93% | 41 | Weak evidence |
 Quant | 15 | 67% | +1.1% | −1.3% | +2.4% | 74% | 39 | Weak evidence |
 Algorand | 48 | 42% | −4.1% | −1.0% | −3.1% | 55% | 26 | No better than chance |
 Cardano | 47 | 53% | +1.4% | −0.8% | +2.3% | 62% | 25 | No better than chance |
 Stellar | 36 | 56% | +1.8% | −1.1% | +2.9% | 49% | 25 | No better than chance |
 Livepeer | 51 | 53% | +0.6% | −1.7% | +2.4% | 70% | 25 | No better than chance |
 Audius | 53 | 51% | +0.8% | −1.2% | +2.0% | 63% | 24 | No better than chance |
 Filecoin | 45 | 38% | −2.3% | −1.1% | −1.3% | 84% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Hedera | 41 | 41% | −2.7% | −1.2% | −1.5% | 82% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Horizen | 55 | 42% | −2.6% | −0.7% | −1.9% | 78% | 23 | No better than chance |
 Ethereum | 39 | 46% | −0.7% | +0.3% | −1.0% | 87% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Injective | 54 | 52% | +1.0% | −0.1% | +1.1% | 90% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Fetch.ai | 90 | 42% | −2.6% | −1.2% | −1.4% | 82% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Conflux | 53 | 42% | −2.6% | −1.6% | −1.0% | 90% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Basic Attention Token | 48 | 56% | +0.7% | −0.1% | +0.9% | 90% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Neo | 70 | 53% | +0.4% | −0.6% | +1.0% | 87% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Avalanche | 46 | 46% | −1.1% | −0.7% | −0.4% | 97% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Chainlink | 39 | 46% | −0.8% | +0.1% | −1.0% | 91% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Optimism | 41 | 46% | −0.7% | −1.4% | +0.8% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Aave | 45 | 53% | +0.8% | −0.1% | +0.8% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance |
 DODO | 62 | 48% | −0.3% | −0.8% | +0.5% | 96% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Dash | 52 | 46% | −1.0% | −0.5% | −0.5% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Harmony | 87 | 48% | −0.9% | −1.3% | +0.4% | 96% | 21 | No better than chance |
 The Graph | 49 | 43% | −2.2% | −1.8% | −0.5% | 97% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Tellor | 72 | 49% | −1.0% | −0.4% | −0.6% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance |
 COTI | 68 | 49% | −0.7% | −1.3% | +0.6% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance |
 THORChain | 62 | 47% | −1.0% | −0.3% | −0.7% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance |
 AVA (Travala) | 37 | 46% | −1.4% | −0.4% | −1.0% | 91% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Ravencoin | 51 | 43% | −1.6% | −1.3% | −0.3% | 97% | 21 | No better than chance |
 IOTA | 48 | 50% | −0.2% | −0.8% | +0.6% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance |
 Litecoin | 51 | 49% | −0.2% | −0.2% | 0.0% | 100% | 20 | No better than chance |
 NEAR Protocol | 60 | 45% | −0.6% | −0.6% | 0.0% | 100% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Arweave | 53 | 45% | −1.2% | −1.2% | 0.0% | 100% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Chiliz | 54 | 46% | −0.6% | −0.7% | +0.1% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance |
 ConstitutionDAO | 52 | 46% | −1.6% | −1.3% | −0.3% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance |
 dYdX | 47 | 43% | −1.8% | −1.7% | −0.2% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Lisk | 48 | 50% | −0.4% | −0.6% | +0.2% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Internet Computer | 38 | 45% | −1.5% | −1.3% | −0.2% | 99% | 19 | No better than chance |
 ORDI | 37 | 38% | −1.9% | −1.9% | 0.0% | 100% | 19 | No better than chance |
| Floki | 30 | 30% | −3.8% | −1.9% | −1.9% | 78% | 19 | No better than chance |
 Ethereum Name Service | 35 | 49% | −1.0% | −1.1% | +0.1% | 99% | 18 | No better than chance |
 Shiba Inu | 26 | 58% | +0.2% | −1.5% | +1.7% | 79% | 17 | No better than chance |
 Memecoin | 30 | 40% | −2.2% | −3.4% | +1.3% | 91% | 17 | No better than chance |
 Bitcoin Cash | 32 | 50% | −0.1% | −0.2% | +0.1% | 99% | 16 | No better than chance |
 Celestia | 31 | 35% | −2.9% | −2.7% | −0.2% | 99% | 16 | No better than chance |
 Pendle | 27 | 52% | +1.3% | −0.3% | +1.5% | 92% | 16 | No better than chance |
 Sun | 30 | 50% | 0.0% | −0.4% | +0.4% | 95% | 16 | No better than chance |
 Sei | 21 | 52% | +0.5% | −2.2% | +2.7% | 79% | 15 | No better than chance |
 JUST | 27 | 56% | +1.1% | +0.6% | +0.5% | 95% | 15 | No better than chance |
 Beam | 25 | 40% | −2.0% | −0.5% | −1.4% | 93% | 15 | No better than chance |
 Aptos | 21 | 52% | +0.1% | −1.5% | +1.6% | 90% | 14 | No better than chance |
 Sui | 18 | 56% | +1.2% | −1.5% | +2.7% | 79% | 14 | No better than chance |
 Bitcoin | 21 | 52% | +0.7% | +0.5% | +0.2% | 98% | 11 | No better than chance |
 Nexo | 3 | 33% | −5.4% | −0.3% | −5.1% | 19% | Too few cases |
With 94 coins tested, one or two would look convincing by luck alone. A signal that only “works” on a single coin deserves less trust than one that leans the same way on many. Method.