What happens to Zcash after a 15% drop in 3 days?

Since 2019, Zcash has shown a 15% drop in 3 days 50 times. In the 49 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 45% of the time, with a median move of −1.0%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for ZEC is +0.1%.

Weak evidence47

There is a gap, but once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 89% of the time, so it should not be relied on.

Cases since 201950last on 10 Nov 2026

Higher after 7 days45%ordinary: 50%

Median 7-day move−1.0%ordinary: +0.1%

Could be luck89%allowing for 3,572 studies

Worst / best case−40% / +95%over 7 days

Median path after the signalMiddle half of casesOrdinary ZEC drift

Price change relative to the close on the signal day. Based on the 49 cases with a full 30 days of history after them.

By holding period

After	Cases	Higher	Median move	Middle half	Ordinary median	Gap	By luck	Proof score
1 day	50	70%	+1.8%	−1.3% to +5.6%	0.0%	+1.8%	5.7%	94
3 days	50	42%	−1.2%	−6.8% to +5.2%	0.0%	−1.2%	67%	48
7 days	49	45%	−1.0%	−6.8% to +9.3%	+0.1%	−1.1%	89%	47
14 days	49	49%	−0.4%	−10.4% to +10.2%	0.0%	−0.4%	99%	20
30 days	49	37%	−11.6%	−22.5% to +7.2%	+0.1%	−11.7%	41%	53

“Ordinary median” is the median move of ZEC over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 58%).

Holding it for 7 days

Typical dip on the way−10.8%ordinary ZEC: −8.3%

1 case in 4 dipped past−21.8%before day 7

Fell 10% or more on the way53%ordinary: 42%

Typical best point+11.6%highest price within 7 days

Median after costs−1.3%ordinary: −0.2%

Ahead after costs45%ordinary: 49%

Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.

Did it hold up over time?

Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 29 the gap over 7 days was −1.0%, and in the later 20 it was −1.7%. Same direction both times.

Every occurrence

One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.

Date	Close	+1d	+7d	+30d
10 Nov 2026	$1,045	−7.7%	open	open
4 Jun 2026	$459.4	−15.2%	−6.8%	+0.9%
27 May 2026	$542.3	+1.0%	+14.4%	−22.7%
19 Mar 2026	$234.7	−0.1%	−5.3%	+37.7%
7 Mar 2026	$197.3	+0.3%	+8.1%	+27.5%
31 Jan 2026	$303.1	+1.0%	−20.7%	−26.1%
8 Jan 2026	$422.0	−0.8%	−1.8%	−43.0%
1 Dec 2025	$343.9	−9.0%	+17.9%	+49.0%
22 Nov 2025	$518.0	+10.6%	−11.1%	−16.7%
10 Nov 2025	$522.1	−15.1%	+16.9%	−22.5%
16 Oct 2025	$205.1	+6.2%	+18.8%	+227.1%
7 Oct 2025	$127.3	+39.5%	+94.7%	+321.1%

The 12 most recent. All 50 are in the open data file.

The rule

Close at least 15% below the close 3 days earlier.

Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.

The same signal on other coins

Coin	Cases	Higher after 7d	Median	Gap	Verdict
Prom	29	66%	+7.3%	+7.5%	Strong evidence · leans up
Request	23	17%	−6.4%	−5.9%	Strong evidence · leans down
XRP	42	60%	+2.4%	+3.1%	Weak evidence
Uniswap	45	62%	+4.4%	+4.8%	Weak evidence
Dogecoin	39	67%	+2.4%	+3.3%	Weak evidence
Cosmos	50	54%	+3.2%	+4.0%	Weak evidence
Kava	59	61%	+3.2%	+3.8%	Weak evidence
Phala Network	52	37%	−4.9%	−3.4%	Weak evidence

15% drop in 3 days across all 94 coins

Other Zcash signals

20% drop in a weekWeak evidence · 47 cases RSI rises above 70Weak evidence · 45 cases 15% rise in a dayWeak evidence · 35 cases 10% jump in a dayWeak evidence · 83 cases Five red days in a rowWeak evidence · 36 cases 10% rise in 3 daysWeak evidence · 146 cases

Full Zcash record

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