Avalanche · AVAX/USDT · daily
What happens to Avalanche after a 15% drop in 3 days?
Since 2020, Avalanche has shown a 15% drop in 3 days 46 times. In the 46 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 46% of the time, with a median move of −1.1%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for AVAX is −0.7%.
No better than chance21
Once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 97% of the time, so this signal has told you nothing reliable about the following week.
By holding period
| After | Cases | Higher | Median move | Middle half | Ordinary median | Gap | By luck | Proof score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 46 | 50% | +0.3% | −5.3% to +3.1% | 0.0% | +0.3% | 82% | 22 |
| 3 days | 46 | 59% | +1.2% | −6.6% to +5.3% | −0.3% | +1.4% | 64% | 49 |
| 7 days | 46 | 46% | −1.1% | −8.6% to +4.9% | −0.7% | −0.4% | 97% | 21 |
| 14 days | 46 | 41% | −3.6% | −18.3% to +7.5% | −1.7% | −1.9% | 88% | 22 |
| 30 days | 46 | 37% | −9.2% | −24.8% to +12.3% | −2.4% | −6.7% | 69% | 51 |
“Ordinary median” is the median move of AVAX over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 83%).
Holding it for 7 days
Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.
Did it hold up over time?
Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 27 the gap over 7 days was +1.8%, and in the later 19 it was −2.0%. The direction changed, which is what a pattern produced by chance tends to do.
Every occurrence
One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.
| Date | Close | +1d | +7d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Jun 2026 | $6.73 | −1.0% | −2.3% | +2.9% |
| 31 Jan 2026 | $10.12 | −2.1% | −8.8% | −9.4% |
| 10 Oct 2025 | $20.68 | +3.8% | −3.5% | −14.1% |
| 25 Sep 2025 | $28.64 | +1.6% | +8.2% | −31.2% |
| 10 Mar 2025 | $16.26 | +7.7% | +15.7% | +13.4% |
| 25 Feb 2025 | $21.94 | −0.3% | −8.8% | +0.4% |
| 2 Feb 2025 | $27.63 | +2.8% | −10.0% | −27.6% |
| 9 Jan 2025 | $36.20 | +1.3% | +10.7% | −32.1% |
| 18 Dec 2024 | $42.78 | −9.2% | −5.9% | −3.3% |
| 4 Aug 2024 | $21.25 | −8.0% | −4.0% | +0.6% |
| 4 Jul 2024 | $24.44 | +2.8% | +3.2% | −7.2% |
| 12 Apr 2024 | $39.34 | −13.9% | −11.9% | −15.8% |
The 12 most recent. All 46 are in the open data file.
The rule
Close at least 15% below the close 3 days earlier.
Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.
The same signal on other coins
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Prom | 29 | 66% | +7.3% | +7.5% | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Request | 23 | 17% | −6.4% | −5.9% | Strong evidence · leans down |
 XRP | 42 | 60% | +2.4% | +3.1% | Weak evidence |
 Uniswap | 45 | 62% | +4.4% | +4.8% | Weak evidence |
 Dogecoin | 39 | 67% | +2.4% | +3.3% | Weak evidence |
 Cosmos | 50 | 54% | +3.2% | +4.0% | Weak evidence |
 Kava | 59 | 61% | +3.2% | +3.8% | Weak evidence |
 Phala Network | 52 | 37% | −4.9% | −3.4% | Weak evidence |
15% drop in 3 days across all 94 coins
Other Avalanche signals
New signals are sealed in the public ledger at the daily close. Members see them immediately; everyone else sees them a day later.
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