Filecoin · FIL/USDT · daily
What happens to Filecoin after a 10% daily drop?
Since 2020, Filecoin has shown a 10% daily drop 52 times. In the 50 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 42% of the time, with a median move of −2.4%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for FIL is −1.1%.
No better than chance23
Once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 82% of the time, so this signal has told you nothing reliable about the following week.
By holding period
| After | Cases | Higher | Median move | Middle half | Ordinary median | Gap | By luck | Proof score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 50 | 48% | −0.4% | −4.2% to +4.3% | −0.2% | −0.3% | 86% | 21 |
| 3 days | 50 | 54% | +0.8% | −6.1% to +6.1% | −0.4% | +1.2% | 63% | 49 |
| 7 days | 50 | 42% | −2.4% | −10.0% to +6.0% | −1.1% | −1.3% | 82% | 23 |
| 14 days | 50 | 36% | −2.2% | −9.9% to +7.7% | −2.7% | +0.5% | 97% | 21 |
| 30 days | 50 | 40% | −9.9% | −18.5% to +3.3% | −6.2% | −3.7% | 83% | 24 |
“Ordinary median” is the median move of FIL over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 44%).
Holding it for 7 days
Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.
Did it hold up over time?
Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 30 the gap over 7 days was −2.1%, and in the later 20 it was +0.7%. The direction changed, which is what a pattern produced by chance tends to do.
Every occurrence
One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.
| Date | Close | +1d | +7d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Oct 2026 | $1.10 | +5.5% | −7.2% | −31.4% |
| 23 Sep 2026 | $0.9361 | +5.8% | +11.5% | +2.6% |
| 15 Sep 2026 | $0.8158 | −1.1% | +28.0% | +42.3% |
| 5 Jun 2026 | $0.7350 | −0.5% | +1.9% | +8.8% |
| 31 Jan 2026 | $1.05 | −1.6% | −7.2% | −6.2% |
| 11 Nov 2025 | $2.23 | −1.4% | −10.9% | −38.1% |
| 3 Nov 2025 | $1.44 | −5.3% | +77.1% | +10.6% |
| 10 Oct 2025 | $1.69 | −7.2% | −13.1% | +65.1% |
| 6 Apr 2025 | $2.38 | −0.3% | +5.0% | +8.9% |
| 3 Mar 2025 | $3.07 | −1.8% | −13.9% | −12.0% |
| 24 Feb 2025 | $3.02 | +4.2% | +1.9% | +0.4% |
| 2 Feb 2025 | $3.60 | −2.6% | −8.1% | −16.2% |
The 12 most recent. All 52 are in the open data file.
The rule
Daily close at least 10% below the previous close. A double-digit loss in one day is the classic "buy the dip or run" moment.
Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.
The same signal on other coins
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Request | 22 | 23% | −7.4% | −6.9% | Strong evidence · leans down |
 Stellar | 44 | 57% | +3.1% | +4.2% | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Basic Attention Token | 56 | 66% | +4.1% | +4.2% | Some evidence · leans up |
 Uniswap | 48 | 71% | +3.8% | +4.2% | Weak evidence |
 Cosmos | 54 | 59% | +3.1% | +4.0% | Weak evidence |
 Phala Network | 48 | 25% | −5.4% | −3.9% | Weak evidence |
| Floki | 31 | 23% | −8.2% | −6.3% | Weak evidence |
 DeXe | 39 | 49% | −3.4% | −3.2% | Weak evidence |
10% drop in a day across all 94 coins
Other Filecoin signals
New signals are sealed in the public ledger at the daily close. Members see them immediately; everyone else sees them a day later.
See today's signals