Breakdown to a 90-day low: does it work in crypto?
A close below three months of lows is a standard trend-following exit, or a short entry. We counted every time it happened on 94 major coins, 1,826 scored cases in all, and measured the following 7 days against each coin's ordinary behaviour.
Coins with evidence0 of 920 lean up · 0 lean down
No better than chance57 of 92coins
Scored cases1,826since 2017
The rule. Close below the lowest low of the previous 90 days.
Coin by coin
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | Gap | By luck | Proof score | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Radworks | 23 | 65% | +5.8% | −0.9% | +6.7% | 13% | 51 | Weak evidence |
 Fetch.ai | 31 | 35% | −6.8% | −1.2% | −5.6% | 43% | 49 | Weak evidence |
 Raydium | 22 | 23% | −8.0% | −0.9% | −7.1% | 32% | 48 | Weak evidence |
 Aave | 14 | 36% | −8.9% | −0.1% | −8.8% | 29% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 DODO | 21 | 67% | +5.3% | −0.8% | +6.2% | 41% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 VeChain | 33 | 58% | +2.0% | −0.8% | +2.9% | 64% | 47 | Weak evidence |
 Prom | 12 | 67% | +7.6% | −0.2% | +7.8% | 26% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 IOTA | 24 | 38% | −5.2% | −0.8% | −4.4% | 48% | 46 | Weak evidence |
 Ethereum Classic | 23 | 57% | +2.4% | −1.0% | +3.4% | 53% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 DeXe | 18 | 33% | −5.2% | −0.3% | −5.0% | 42% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 Amp | 34 | 21% | −3.4% | −2.2% | −1.1% | 82% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 AVA (Travala) | 20 | 70% | +4.6% | −0.4% | +5.0% | 45% | 45 | Weak evidence |
 XRP | 15 | 60% | +3.5% | −0.8% | +4.2% | 48% | 44 | Weak evidence |
 Stellar | 25 | 56% | +1.5% | −1.1% | +2.6% | 66% | 44 | Weak evidence |
 Curve DAO | 22 | 77% | +4.0% | −0.5% | +4.6% | 59% | 44 | Weak evidence |
 Cyber | 15 | 33% | −7.5% | −2.0% | −5.6% | 55% | 43 | Weak evidence |
 dYdX | 23 | 65% | +1.5% | −1.7% | +3.2% | 74% | 42 | Weak evidence |
 Oasis | 21 | 29% | −5.4% | −1.4% | −4.0% | 69% | 42 | Weak evidence |
 Neo | 33 | 48% | −1.0% | −0.6% | −0.4% | 97% | 42 | Weak evidence |
 Arbitrum | 12 | 75% | +3.1% | −1.7% | +4.9% | 63% | 41 | Weak evidence |
 The Sandbox | 25 | 52% | +0.7% | −1.3% | +2.0% | 83% | 41 | Weak evidence |
 TRON | 18 | 61% | +2.3% | +0.7% | +1.7% | 71% | 40 | Weak evidence |
 Sui | 12 | 67% | +11.0% | −1.5% | +12.5% | 16% | 40 | Weak evidence |
 Audius | 25 | 48% | −0.1% | −1.2% | +1.1% | 91% | 40 | Weak evidence |
 Phala Network | 24 | 46% | 0.0% | −1.5% | +1.5% | 87% | 40 | Weak evidence |
 Litecoin | 25 | 56% | +0.4% | −0.2% | +0.6% | 94% | 39 | Weak evidence |
 Pepe | 12 | 58% | +3.2% | −1.4% | +4.6% | 74% | 39 | Weak evidence |
 PancakeSwap | 25 | 44% | 0.0% | −0.8% | +0.8% | 93% | 39 | Weak evidence |
 Sei | 17 | 53% | +1.0% | −2.2% | +3.2% | 76% | 39 | Weak evidence |
 Horizen | 17 | 59% | +2.5% | −0.7% | +3.2% | 80% | 39 | Weak evidence |
 Quant | 14 | 57% | +0.7% | −1.3% | +2.1% | 79% | 38 | Weak evidence |
 Aptos | 13 | 54% | +1.0% | −1.5% | +2.5% | 87% | 37 | Weak evidence |
 NEAR Protocol | 18 | 33% | −1.9% | −0.6% | −1.3% | 94% | 36 | Weak evidence |
 Solana | 18 | 56% | +0.2% | −0.3% | +0.5% | 98% | 35 | Weak evidence |
 Polymesh | 13 | 54% | +0.3% | −1.6% | +1.9% | 89% | 35 | Weak evidence |
 Bitcoin Cash | 13 | 54% | +0.8% | −0.2% | +1.0% | 94% | 34 | No better than chance |
 Beam | 14 | 50% | −1.7% | −0.5% | −1.2% | 95% | 34 | No better than chance |
 ORDI | 12 | 33% | −1.1% | −1.9% | +0.9% | 97% | 33 | No better than chance |
| Worldcoin | 10 | 30% | −9.9% | −2.7% | −7.2% | 59% | 27 | No better than chance |
 Cosmos | 29 | 59% | +3.7% | −0.9% | +4.5% | 46% | 24 | No better than chance |
 Lido DAO | 10 | 60% | +2.6% | −1.2% | +3.8% | 80% | 22 | No better than chance |
 Arkham | 10 | 50% | +0.5% | −2.5% | +3.1% | 86% | 20 | No better than chance |
| Floki | 10 | 50% | +0.6% | −1.9% | +2.5% | 87% | 20 | No better than chance |
 Terra Classic | 10 | 50% | 0.0% | −1.6% | +1.6% | 91% | 19 | No better than chance |
 Bitcoin | 21 | 57% | +2.5% | +0.5% | +2.1% | 66% | 17 | No better than chance |
 Harmony | 33 | 45% | −1.6% | −1.3% | −0.3% | 98% | 17 | No better than chance |
 Cardano | 28 | 50% | +0.2% | −0.8% | +1.1% | 91% | 16 | No better than chance |
 Filecoin | 22 | 55% | +1.3% | −1.1% | +2.4% | 78% | 16 | No better than chance |
 Stacks | 24 | 38% | −2.6% | −0.6% | −2.0% | 86% | 16 | No better than chance |
 Gala | 30 | 43% | −2.5% | −3.0% | +0.4% | 98% | 16 | No better than chance |
 THORChain | 23 | 57% | +2.2% | −0.3% | +2.5% | 81% | 16 | No better than chance |
 Chiliz | 23 | 57% | +1.5% | −0.7% | +2.2% | 82% | 15 | No better than chance |
| Convex Finance | 23 | 52% | +0.3% | −1.7% | +2.0% | 83% | 15 | No better than chance |
 Ravencoin | 29 | 48% | −1.6% | −1.3% | −0.3% | 98% | 15 | No better than chance |
 Ethereum | 25 | 56% | +1.0% | +0.3% | +0.7% | 94% | 14 | No better than chance |
 Kava | 25 | 56% | +0.4% | −0.6% | +0.9% | 93% | 14 | No better than chance |
 Hedera | 22 | 36% | −2.7% | −1.2% | −1.5% | 88% | 14 | No better than chance |
 Arweave | 21 | 52% | +0.8% | −1.2% | +2.0% | 87% | 14 | No better than chance |
 Basic Attention Token | 26 | 54% | +0.3% | −0.1% | +0.4% | 97% | 14 | No better than chance |
 The Graph | 22 | 50% | −0.1% | −1.8% | +1.7% | 89% | 14 | No better than chance |
 Chainlink | 16 | 56% | +2.6% | +0.1% | +2.5% | 84% | 13 | No better than chance |
 Polkadot | 21 | 48% | 0.0% | −1.0% | +1.0% | 93% | 13 | No better than chance |
 Algorand | 23 | 43% | −2.0% | −1.0% | −0.9% | 94% | 13 | No better than chance |
 Conflux | 19 | 53% | +0.1% | −1.6% | +1.7% | 91% | 13 | No better than chance |
 Axie Infinity | 21 | 38% | −2.5% | −1.2% | −1.3% | 93% | 13 | No better than chance |
 Reserve Rights | 25 | 48% | −1.3% | −1.3% | 0.0% | 100% | 13 | No better than chance |
 Zcash | 15 | 40% | −2.3% | +0.1% | −2.4% | 86% | 12 | No better than chance |
 Dash | 18 | 61% | +0.7% | −0.5% | +1.2% | 92% | 12 | No better than chance |
 ApeCoin | 23 | 48% | −1.3% | −1.7% | +0.4% | 98% | 12 | No better than chance |
 ConstitutionDAO | 19 | 37% | −3.1% | −1.3% | −1.7% | 91% | 12 | No better than chance |
 Theta Network | 24 | 50% | −0.5% | −0.6% | 0.0% | 100% | 12 | No better than chance |
 1inch | 20 | 50% | −0.5% | −1.3% | +0.8% | 96% | 12 | No better than chance |
 Avalanche | 20 | 45% | −0.3% | −0.7% | +0.4% | 98% | 11 | No better than chance |
 Internet Computer | 19 | 32% | −1.8% | −1.3% | −0.5% | 98% | 11 | No better than chance |
 COTI | 18 | 44% | −2.6% | −1.3% | −1.3% | 93% | 11 | No better than chance |
 Ethereum Name Service | 16 | 50% | +0.3% | −1.1% | +1.4% | 92% | 11 | No better than chance |
 Sun | 21 | 43% | −0.3% | −0.4% | 0.0% | 100% | 11 | No better than chance |
 Uniswap | 18 | 50% | +0.3% | −0.4% | +0.8% | 96% | 10 | No better than chance |
 Injective | 17 | 65% | +0.8% | −0.1% | +0.9% | 96% | 10 | No better than chance |
 Tellor | 19 | 47% | −0.2% | −0.4% | +0.3% | 99% | 10 | No better than chance |
 Immutable | 20 | 45% | −1.5% | −1.7% | +0.2% | 99% | 10 | No better than chance |
 Request | 16 | 50% | +0.3% | −0.5% | +0.8% | 94% | 10 | No better than chance |
 Livepeer | 17 | 35% | −2.5% | −1.7% | −0.8% | 96% | 10 | No better than chance |
 BNB | 18 | 61% | +0.4% | +0.5% | −0.1% | 100% | 9 | No better than chance |
 Optimism | 15 | 47% | −2.1% | −1.4% | −0.7% | 97% | 9 | No better than chance |
 Shiba Inu | 15 | 47% | −1.9% | −1.5% | −0.4% | 98% | 9 | No better than chance |
 Lisk | 16 | 44% | −0.9% | −0.6% | −0.3% | 99% | 9 | No better than chance |
 Gitcoin | 17 | 41% | −0.7% | −1.2% | +0.4% | 99% | 9 | No better than chance |
 Dogecoin | 11 | 55% | 0.0% | −1.0% | +1.0% | 94% | 8 | No better than chance |
 Memecoin | 16 | 25% | −3.6% | −3.4% | −0.2% | 99% | 8 | No better than chance |
 JUST | 13 | 54% | +0.8% | +0.6% | +0.2% | 99% | 7 | No better than chance |
 Celestia | 11 | 45% | −2.1% | −2.7% | +0.5% | 99% | 6 | No better than chance |
 Pendle | 8 | 50% | −4.9% | −0.3% | −4.6% | 41% | Too few cases | |
 Nexo | 9 | 67% | +1.6% | −0.3% | +1.9% | 36% | Too few cases |
With 94 coins tested, one or two would look convincing by luck alone. A signal that only “works” on a single coin deserves less trust than one that leans the same way on many. Method.