Terra Classic · LUNC/USDT · daily
What happens to Terra Classic after a breakdown to a 90-day low?
Since 2022, Terra Classic has shown a breakdown to a 90-day low 10 times. In the 10 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 50% of the time, with a median move of 0.0%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for LUNC is −1.6%.
No better than chance19
Once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 91% of the time, so this signal has told you nothing reliable about the following week.
By holding period
| After | Cases | Higher | Median move | Middle half | Ordinary median | Gap | By luck | Proof score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 11 | 55% | +0.2% | −2.0% to +2.3% | −0.1% | +0.3% | 91% | 7 |
| 3 days | 10 | 40% | −0.7% | −3.5% to +2.0% | −0.6% | −0.1% | 99% | 15 |
| 7 days | 10 | 50% | 0.0% | −6.7% to +6.4% | −1.6% | +1.6% | 91% | 19 |
| 14 days | 10 | 40% | −3.2% | −6.5% to +14.9% | −3.4% | +0.2% | 100% | 15 |
| 30 days | 9 | 33% | −3.7% | −13.8% to +3.1% | −4.7% | +1.0% | 86% |
“Ordinary median” is the median move of LUNC over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 61%).
Holding it for 7 days
Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.
Every occurrence
One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.
| Date | Close | +1d | +7d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Oct 2026 | $0.00004266 | +1.7% | −6.0% | open |
| 27 Jul 2026 | $0.00005070 | +0.2% | −1.6% | +7.6% |
| 10 Oct 2025 | $0.00003621 | +1.9% | +10.6% | +3.1% |
| 25 Sep 2025 | $0.00005296 | +2.7% | +8.5% | −12.1% |
| 2 Feb 2025 | $0.00006424 | +4.5% | +7.4% | −0.5% |
| 26 Jan 2025 | $0.00007855 | −1.3% | −18.2% | −13.8% |
| 4 Jul 2024 | $0.00006864 | −2.6% | +1.6% | +3.6% |
| 15 Aug 2023 | $0.00006986 | −5.6% | −7.7% | −17.0% |
| 6 May 2023 | $0.00009538 | −0.6% | −6.9% | −3.7% |
| 21 Apr 2023 | $0.00010835 | +3.2% | +3.2% | −18.1% |
The 12 most recent. All 10 are in the open data file.
The rule
Close below the lowest low of the previous 90 days. A close below three months of lows is a standard trend-following exit, or a short entry.
Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.
The same signal on other coins
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Radworks | 23 | 65% | +5.8% | +6.7% | Weak evidence |
 Fetch.ai | 31 | 35% | −6.8% | −5.6% | Weak evidence |
 Raydium | 22 | 23% | −8.0% | −7.1% | Weak evidence |
 DODO | 21 | 67% | +5.3% | +6.2% | Weak evidence |
 VeChain | 33 | 58% | +2.0% | +2.9% | Weak evidence |
 IOTA | 24 | 38% | −5.2% | −4.4% | Weak evidence |
 Ethereum Classic | 23 | 57% | +2.4% | +3.4% | Weak evidence |
 Amp | 34 | 21% | −3.4% | −1.1% | Weak evidence |
Breakdown to a 90-day low across all 94 coins
Other Terra Classic signals
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