What happens to Polymesh after a golden cross?

Since 2022, Polymesh has shown a golden cross 2 times. In the 2 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 0% of the time, with a median move of −30.7%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for POLYX is −1.6%.

Too few cases

With 2 completed cases there is not enough history to judge this one.

Cases since 20222last on 4 Dec 2024

Higher after 7 days0%ordinary: 44%

Median 7-day move−30.7%ordinary: −1.6%

Could be luck2.0%allowing for 3,572 studies

Worst / best case−46% / −15%over 7 days

By holding period

After	Cases	Higher	Median move	Middle half	Ordinary median	Gap	By luck
1 day	2	0%	−21.1%	−29.9% to −12.4%	0.0%	−21.2%	0.4%
3 days	2	0%	−24.6%	−35.2% to −14.0%	−0.5%	−24.1%	1.3%
7 days	2	0%	−30.7%	−38.5% to −23.0%	−1.6%	−29.2%	2.0%
14 days	2	0%	−39.2%	−43.8% to −34.5%	−3.3%	−35.9%	3.7%
30 days	2	0%	−40.5%	−45.3% to −35.6%	−5.8%	−34.7%	11%

“Ordinary median” is the median move of POLYX over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 2.0%).

Holding it for 7 days

Typical dip on the way−40.7%ordinary POLYX: −8.1%

1 case in 4 dipped past−45.1%before day 7

Fell 10% or more on the way100%ordinary: 41%

Typical best point+3.7%highest price within 7 days

Median after costs−31.0%ordinary: −1.9%

Ahead after costs0%ordinary: 43%

Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.

Every occurrence

One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.

Date	Close	+1d	+7d	+30d
4 Dec 2024	$0.4145	−3.6%	−15.2%	−30.8%
30 Oct 2023	$0.4038	−38.6%	−46.3%	−50.2%

The 12 most recent. All 2 are in the open data file.

The rule

50-day moving average closes above the 200-day moving average after being below it. The 50-day average crossing above the 200-day average is one of the most publicised bullish signals in any market.

Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.

Other Polymesh signals

Bitcoin jumps 5% in a daySome evidence · 34 cases 30% drop in 30 daysWeak evidence · 34 cases 7% rise in a dayWeak evidence · 43 cases Volume spike on a green dayWeak evidence · 38 cases Extreme buy pressureWeak evidence · 40 cases 10% drop in 3 daysWeak evidence · 58 cases

Full Polymesh record

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