Livepeer signals: which ones have held up
19 common signals tested on every daily LPT candle since 28 May 2021 (1,997 days). None of them shows reliable evidence of an effect on the following week. 7 signals did no better than picking days at random.
LPT price · last close$1.0814 Nov 2026 close: $1.08 (7d −20.0%)
RSI (14)21.4under 30
Volume vs 30-day average1.98×3× or more is a spike
Market buys, share of volume48.5%above 50%: buyers lifting offers
From all-time high−99%below the 200-day average
Trading signals, ranked by evidence
| Signal | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volume spike on a green day | 47 | 30% | −5.0% | −1.7% | 55% | 51 | Weak evidence | 6 Oct 2026 |
| 10% jump in a day | 62 | 37% | −4.7% | −1.7% | 52% | 51 | Weak evidence | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Five red days in a row | 31 | 61% | +2.6% | −1.7% | 48% | 49 | Weak evidence | 25 Jun 2026 |
| Extreme buy pressure | 47 | 34% | −2.7% | −1.7% | 90% | 47 | Weak evidence | 30 Sep 2026 |
| Extreme sell pressure | 50 | 42% | −3.0% | −1.7% | 86% | 47 | Weak evidence | 7 Nov 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | 16 | 6% | −8.7% | −1.7% | 36% | 46 | Weak evidence | 11 Nov 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | 21 | 29% | −3.9% | −1.7% | 86% | 40 | Weak evidence | 22 Mar 2026 |
| RSI drops below 30 | 23 | 48% | 0.0% | −1.7% | 87% | 40 | Weak evidence | 12 Nov 2026 |
| Five green days in a row | 21 | 62% | +6.6% | −1.7% | 19% | 37 | Weak evidence | 8 May 2026 |
| Volatility squeeze | 17 | 41% | −1.5% | −1.7% | 99% | 34 | No better than chance | 30 Apr 2026 |
| 10% drop in a day | 54 | 50% | −0.2% | −1.7% | 81% | 23 | No better than chance | 27 Jul 2026 |
| 20% drop in a week | 44 | 43% | −1.3% | −1.7% | 97% | 21 | No better than chance | 31 Jan 2026 |
| Capitulation: heavy drop on heavy volume | 13 | 46% | −4.8% | −1.7% | 82% | 13 | No better than chance | 27 Jul 2026 |
| Volume spike on a red day | 22 | 36% | −2.1% | −1.7% | 98% | 12 | No better than chance | 10 Oct 2026 |
| RSI rises above 70 | 15 | 53% | +0.7% | −1.7% | 87% | 12 | No better than chance | 21 Sep 2026 |
| Breakdown to a 90-day low | 17 | 35% | −2.5% | −1.7% | 96% | 10 | No better than chance | 11 Aug 2026 |
| Golden cross | 3 | 0% | −2.7% | −1.7% | 89% | Too few cases | 9 Aug 2025 | |
| Death cross | 4 | 25% | −4.9% | −1.7% | 63% | Too few cases | 24 Oct 2025 | |
| Breakout to a 90-day high | 9 | 56% | +1.5% | −1.7% | 50% | Too few cases | 30 May 2025 |
After drops and rallies
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15% rise in a day | 33 | 30% | −9.0% | −1.7% | 12% | 81 | Strong evidence · leans down | 18 Sep 2026 |
| 30% rise in 7 days | 27 | 33% | −9.0% | −1.7% | 18% | 67 | Some evidence · leans down | 22 Sep 2026 |
| 20% rise in 7 days | 47 | 34% | −5.8% | −1.7% | 40% | 53 | Weak evidence | 21 Sep 2026 |
| 30% drop in 30 days | 55 | 53% | +0.8% | −1.7% | 63% | 50 | Weak evidence | 25 Jun 2026 |
| 5% drop in a day | 140 | 39% | −3.1% | −1.7% | 68% | 48 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 5% rise in a day | 135 | 41% | −2.3% | −1.7% | 92% | 46 | Weak evidence | 25 Sep 2026 |
| 100% rise in 30 days | 12 | 33% | −11.2% | −1.7% | 28% | 46 | Weak evidence | 30 May 2025 |
| 20% drop in 3 days | 19 | 63% | +3.8% | −1.7% | 47% | 45 | Weak evidence | 10 Oct 2025 |
| 50% rise in 30 days | 33 | 42% | −3.3% | −1.7% | 87% | 44 | Weak evidence | 6 Jun 2025 |
| 20% rise in 3 days | 34 | 38% | −6.6% | −1.7% | 34% | 26 | No better than chance | 19 Sep 2026 |
| 15% drop in 3 days | 51 | 53% | +0.6% | −1.7% | 70% | 25 | No better than chance | 31 Jan 2026 |
| 30% drop in 7 days | 10 | 70% | +3.4% | −1.7% | 67% | 25 | No better than chance | 10 Oct 2025 |
| 15% drop in 7 days | 71 | 52% | +0.5% | −1.7% | 64% | 24 | No better than chance | 2 Aug 2026 |
| 10% rise in 3 days | 84 | 42% | −3.5% | −1.7% | 70% | 23 | No better than chance | 18 Sep 2026 |
| 7% rise in a day | 93 | 41% | −3.0% | −1.7% | 79% | 22 | No better than chance | 18 Sep 2026 |
| 7% drop in a day | 99 | 37% | −2.3% | −1.7% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance | 22 Oct 2026 |
| 10% drop in 3 days | 100 | 44% | −1.8% | −1.7% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance | 24 Oct 2026 |
| 15% drop in a day | 19 | 53% | +3.2% | −1.7% | 54% | 19 | No better than chance | 25 Jan 2026 |
| 40% drop in 30 days | 23 | 52% | +0.5% | −1.7% | 85% | 16 | No better than chance | 29 Jun 2025 |
| 50% drop in 30 days | 7 | 57% | +1.4% | −1.7% | 54% | Too few cases | 4 Feb 2025 | |
| 50% rise in 7 days | 8 | 38% | −6.3% | −1.7% | 33% | Too few cases | 30 May 2025 |
When Bitcoin moves
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin drops 5% in a day | 48 | 38% | −4.3% | −1.7% | 67% | 50 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Bitcoin jumps 5% in a day | 57 | 49% | −1.2% | −1.7% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 10% in a day | 7 | 57% | +0.1% | −1.7% | 71% | Too few cases | 5 Feb 2026 | |
| Bitcoin jumps 10% in a day | 8 | 38% | −7.8% | −1.7% | 20% | Too few cases | 6 Feb 2026 |
Returns are measured 7 days after the daily close that confirmed the signal. “Ordinary” is the median 7-day move from any day. How the proof score works.
Seen in the last 30 days
| Date | Signal | Close | +7d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Nov 2026 | RSI drops below 30 | $1.24 | open |
| 11 Nov 2026 | Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | $1.26 | open |
| 7 Nov 2026 | Extreme sell pressure | $1.35 | −20.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | Extreme sell pressure | $1.52 | −6.7% |
Signals from the most recent daily close are sealed for a day and shown to members first.