What happens to Litecoin after a golden cross?

Since 2017, Litecoin has shown a golden cross 11 times. In the 11 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 45% of the time, with a median move of −0.5%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for LTC is −0.2%.

No better than chance6

Once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 99% of the time, so this signal has told you nothing reliable about the following week.

Cases since 201711last on 23 Sep 2026

Higher after 7 days45%ordinary: 49%

Median 7-day move−0.5%ordinary: −0.2%

Could be luck99%allowing for 3,572 studies

Worst / best case−12% / +23%over 7 days

Median path after the signalMiddle half of casesOrdinary LTC drift

Price change relative to the close on the signal day. Based on the 11 cases with a full 30 days of history after them.

By holding period

After	Cases	Higher	Median move	Middle half	Ordinary median	Gap	By luck	Proof score
1 day	11	45%	−0.7%	−2.1% to +2.7%	0.0%	−0.7%	75%	10
3 days	11	36%	−1.0%	−2.5% to +2.7%	−0.1%	−1.0%	84%	9
7 days	11	45%	−0.5%	−7.9% to +7.9%	−0.2%	−0.3%	99%	6
14 days	11	36%	−1.2%	−10.9% to +4.9%	−0.6%	−0.7%	98%	7
30 days	11	36%	−6.7%	−21.2% to +21.1%	−0.4%	−6.3%	84%	37

“Ordinary median” is the median move of LTC over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 92%).

Holding it for 7 days

Typical dip on the way−7.5%ordinary LTC: −6.7%

1 case in 4 dipped past−13.7%before day 7

Fell 10% or more on the way45%ordinary: 34%

Typical best point+8.6%highest price within 7 days

Median after costs−0.8%ordinary: −0.5%

Ahead after costs45%ordinary: 48%

Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.

Did it hold up over time?

Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 6 the gap over 7 days was −6.6%, and in the later 5 it was +9.0%. The direction changed, which is what a pattern produced by chance tends to do.

Every occurrence

One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.

Date	Close	+1d	+7d	+30d
23 Sep 2026	$61.84	+16.3%	+8.7%	−7.4%
6 Aug 2025	$119.2	+3.1%	+9.8%	−6.0%
19 Nov 2024	$86.68	−3.8%	+7.1%	+14.6%
23 Feb 2024	$68.80	+2.3%	+23.4%	+30.3%
30 Jun 2023	$108.7	−1.5%	−9.6%	−13.5%
25 Nov 2022	$74.10	+3.2%	+5.2%	−6.7%
10 Nov 2021	$260.4	+0.7%	−11.8%	−43.0%
24 Oct 2020	$59.23	−0.7%	−5.9%	+50.3%
17 Aug 2020	$67.22	−2.7%	−7.7%	−28.9%
18 Feb 2020	$77.25	−8.6%	−8.1%	−49.6%
16 Mar 2019	$61.21	−1.2%	−0.5%	+27.5%

The 12 most recent. All 11 are in the open data file.

The rule

50-day moving average closes above the 200-day moving average after being below it. The 50-day average crossing above the 200-day average is one of the most publicised bullish signals in any market.

Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.

Other Litecoin signals

20% drop in a weekSome evidence · 37 cases 15% drop in 7 daysWeak evidence · 67 cases 10% drop in 3 daysWeak evidence · 107 cases 10% drop in a dayWeak evidence · 53 cases RSI rises above 70Weak evidence · 43 cases 30% drop in 30 daysWeak evidence · 55 cases

Full Litecoin record

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