What happens to Litecoin after a 50% rise in 30 days?

Since 2017, Litecoin has shown a 50% rise in 30 days 32 times. In the 32 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 44% of the time, with a median move of −3.2%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for LTC is −0.2%.

Weak evidence48

There is a gap, but once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 52% of the time, so it should not be relied on.

Cases since 201732last on 8 Dec 2024

Higher after 7 days44%ordinary: 49%

Median 7-day move−3.2%ordinary: −0.2%

Could be luck52%allowing for 3,572 studies

Worst / best case−25% / +29%over 7 days

Median path after the signalMiddle half of casesOrdinary LTC drift

Price change relative to the close on the signal day. Based on the 32 cases with a full 30 days of history after them.

By holding period

After	Cases	Higher	Median move	Middle half	Ordinary median	Gap	By luck	Proof score
1 day	32	50%	−0.2%	−3.6% to +3.4%	0.0%	−0.2%	88%	17
3 days	32	47%	−0.1%	−9.1% to +5.1%	−0.1%	0.0%	100%	16
7 days	32	44%	−3.2%	−12.1% to +8.6%	−0.2%	−3.0%	52%	48
14 days	32	38%	−5.1%	−14.6% to +4.9%	−0.6%	−4.5%	59%	48
30 days	32	34%	−6.0%	−19.4% to +11.5%	−0.4%	−5.7%	70%	47

“Ordinary median” is the median move of LTC over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 10%).

Holding it for 7 days

Typical dip on the way−10.7%ordinary LTC: −6.7%

1 case in 4 dipped past−24.3%before day 7

Fell 10% or more on the way56%ordinary: 34%

Typical best point+7.1%highest price within 7 days

Median after costs−3.5%ordinary: −0.5%

Ahead after costs41%ordinary: 48%

Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.

Did it hold up over time?

Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 19 the gap over 7 days was −1.3%, and in the later 13 it was −10.0%. Same direction both times.

Every occurrence

One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.

Date	Close	+1d	+7d	+30d
8 Dec 2024	$134.9	−18.1%	−10.2%	−23.9%
1 Dec 2024	$119.6	+11.2%	+12.8%	−13.6%
9 Dec 2022	$76.31	+0.1%	−13.2%	+3.1%
23 Nov 2022	$79.02	−0.5%	+0.2%	−16.8%
11 Nov 2021	$262.3	−4.2%	−22.1%	−39.8%
5 Sep 2021	$232.2	−5.5%	−21.2%	−25.2%
15 Aug 2021	$184.6	−3.6%	+0.7%	−0.8%
3 May 2021	$294.9	+3.5%	+21.7%	−36.5%
17 Apr 2021	$300.9	−9.1%	−25.3%	−6.4%
17 Feb 2021	$237.5	−4.6%	−23.6%	−15.8%
9 Jan 2021	$177.3	−4.1%	−19.0%	−5.6%
2 Jan 2021	$137.0	+17.7%	+29.4%	−3.6%

The 12 most recent. All 32 are in the open data file.

The rule

Close at least 50% above the close 30 days earlier.

Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.

The same signal on other coins

Coin	Cases	Higher after 7d	Median	Gap	Verdict
Audius	33	73%	+10.6%	+11.8%	Strong evidence · leans up
Phala Network	32	28%	−9.7%	−8.2%	Strong evidence · leans down
Fetch.ai	78	60%	+5.2%	+6.4%	Strong evidence · leans up
Gitcoin	25	24%	−12.6%	−11.4%	Strong evidence · leans down
Injective	60	58%	+7.0%	+7.0%	Strong evidence · leans up
Hedera	45	56%	+4.3%	+5.5%	Strong evidence · leans up
DeXe	37	62%	+4.4%	+4.7%	Weak evidence
XRP	38	37%	−3.9%	−3.1%	Weak evidence

50% rise in 30 days across all 94 coins

Other Litecoin signals

20% drop in a weekSome evidence · 37 cases 15% drop in 7 daysWeak evidence · 67 cases 10% drop in 3 daysWeak evidence · 107 cases 10% drop in a dayWeak evidence · 53 cases RSI rises above 70Weak evidence · 43 cases 30% drop in 30 daysWeak evidence · 55 cases

Full Litecoin record

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