Lido DAO signals: which ones have held up
19 common signals tested on every daily LDO candle since 9 May 2022 (1,651 days). None of them shows reliable evidence of an effect on the following week. 9 signals did no better than picking days at random.
LDO price · last close$0.267614 Nov 2026 close: $0.2676 (7d −18.1%)
RSI (14)27.2under 30
Volume vs 30-day average0.96×3× or more is a spike
Market buys, share of volume47.6%above 50%: buyers lifting offers
From all-time high−93%below the 200-day average
Trading signals, ranked by evidence
| Signal | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extreme buy pressure | 40 | 57% | +2.5% | −1.2% | 55% | 51 | Weak evidence | 31 Oct 2026 |
| 10% drop in a day | 42 | 50% | +1.0% | −1.2% | 78% | 49 | Weak evidence | 29 Oct 2026 |
| RSI drops below 30 | 13 | 62% | +4.0% | −1.2% | 68% | 41 | Weak evidence | 25 Jun 2026 |
| Five red days in a row | 20 | 50% | +0.9% | −1.2% | 87% | 39 | Weak evidence | 24 Jun 2026 |
| Volume spike on a red day | 16 | 38% | −4.3% | −1.2% | 80% | 38 | Weak evidence | 17 Jun 2026 |
| Five green days in a row | 16 | 56% | +1.7% | −1.2% | 82% | 38 | Weak evidence | 20 Sep 2026 |
| Capitulation: heavy drop on heavy volume | 11 | 55% | +2.8% | −1.2% | 79% | 37 | Weak evidence | 4 Aug 2026 |
| Breakout to a 90-day high | 13 | 38% | −4.1% | −1.2% | 86% | 37 | Weak evidence | 25 Sep 2026 |
| 20% drop in a week | 36 | 64% | +2.5% | −1.2% | 59% | 24 | No better than chance | 4 Aug 2026 |
| 10% jump in a day | 53 | 51% | +0.1% | −1.2% | 87% | 22 | No better than chance | 24 Sep 2026 |
| Breakdown to a 90-day low | 10 | 60% | +2.6% | −1.2% | 80% | 22 | No better than chance | 5 Jun 2026 |
| Volume spike on a green day | 29 | 52% | +2.5% | −1.2% | 65% | 21 | No better than chance | 25 Sep 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | 26 | 42% | −2.8% | −1.2% | 89% | 16 | No better than chance | 6 Nov 2026 |
| Extreme sell pressure | 31 | 45% | −1.2% | −1.2% | 100% | 16 | No better than chance | 11 Nov 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | 27 | 44% | −2.2% | −1.2% | 94% | 15 | No better than chance | 29 Oct 2026 |
| RSI rises above 70 | 18 | 56% | +2.5% | −1.2% | 74% | 15 | No better than chance | 6 Sep 2026 |
| Volatility squeeze | 16 | 31% | −2.8% | −1.2% | 93% | 11 | No better than chance | 23 Jun 2026 |
| Golden cross | 5 | 0% | −2.5% | −1.2% | 85% | Too few cases | 21 Aug 2026 | |
| Death cross | 4 | 50% | −0.6% | −1.2% | 93% | Too few cases | 8 Nov 2025 |
After drops and rallies
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15% drop in 7 days | 54 | 54% | +1.0% | −1.2% | 73% | 49 | Weak evidence | 3 Aug 2026 |
| 10% rise in 3 days | 89 | 39% | −3.3% | −1.2% | 65% | 49 | Weak evidence | 25 Sep 2026 |
| 20% rise in 7 days | 45 | 51% | +0.4% | −1.2% | 86% | 48 | Weak evidence | 22 Sep 2026 |
| 15% drop in 3 days | 38 | 50% | +0.5% | −1.2% | 86% | 47 | Weak evidence | 4 Jun 2026 |
| 5% rise in a day | 128 | 45% | −2.5% | −1.2% | 75% | 47 | Weak evidence | 13 Oct 2026 |
| 40% drop in 30 days | 15 | 60% | +4.7% | −1.2% | 59% | 43 | Weak evidence | 22 Feb 2026 |
| 20% rise in 3 days | 30 | 43% | −2.3% | −1.2% | 93% | 42 | Weak evidence | 26 Sep 2026 |
| 30% drop in 7 days | 10 | 70% | +4.8% | −1.2% | 65% | 25 | No better than chance | 5 Feb 2026 |
| 15% rise in a day | 30 | 40% | −5.5% | −1.2% | 55% | 22 | No better than chance | 26 Apr 2026 |
| 5% drop in a day | 128 | 46% | −1.6% | −1.2% | 95% | 21 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 7% drop in a day | 85 | 49% | −0.5% | −1.2% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance | 29 Oct 2026 |
| 30% drop in 30 days | 46 | 46% | −1.6% | −1.2% | 98% | 21 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 10% drop in 3 days | 89 | 48% | −1.0% | −1.2% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance | 29 Oct 2026 |
| 7% rise in a day | 96 | 49% | −1.4% | −1.2% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance | 13 Oct 2026 |
| 30% rise in 7 days | 21 | 52% | +4.2% | −1.2% | 53% | 20 | No better than chance | 23 Aug 2026 |
| 100% rise in 30 days | 10 | 50% | +1.8% | −1.2% | 86% | 20 | No better than chance | 15 Dec 2024 |
| 50% rise in 30 days | 25 | 48% | −1.5% | −1.2% | 99% | 13 | No better than chance | 25 Jul 2026 |
| 15% drop in a day | 16 | 50% | +0.9% | −1.2% | 90% | 12 | No better than chance | 4 Aug 2026 |
| 20% drop in 3 days | 17 | 47% | −0.8% | −1.2% | 99% | 9 | No better than chance | 5 Feb 2026 |
| 50% drop in 30 days | 5 | 80% | +8.5% | −1.2% | 17% | Too few cases | 5 Feb 2026 | |
| 50% rise in 7 days | 6 | 100% | +25.4% | −1.2% | under 0.1% | Too few cases | 9 Aug 2025 |
When Bitcoin moves
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin drops 5% in a day | 31 | 42% | −2.2% | −1.2% | 94% | 42 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Bitcoin jumps 5% in a day | 41 | 51% | +0.9% | −1.2% | 80% | 24 | No better than chance | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 10% in a day | 4 | 50% | −1.0% | −1.2% | 97% | Too few cases | 5 Feb 2026 | |
| Bitcoin jumps 10% in a day | 6 | 33% | −3.1% | −1.2% | 74% | Too few cases | 6 Feb 2026 |
Returns are measured 7 days after the daily close that confirmed the signal. “Ordinary” is the median 7-day move from any day. How the proof score works.
Seen in the last 30 days
| Date | Signal | Close | +7d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov 2026 | Extreme sell pressure | $0.3157 | open |
| 6 Nov 2026 | Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | $0.3262 | −7.0% |
| 31 Oct 2026 | Extreme buy pressure | $0.3342 | −2.2% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | $0.3413 | −4.4% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 10% drop in a day | $0.3285 | −2.3% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | $0.3285 | −2.3% |
| 25 Oct 2026 | Extreme sell pressure | $0.3655 | −6.4% |
| 22 Oct 2026 | Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | $0.3829 | −14.2% |
| 20 Oct 2026 | Extreme buy pressure | $0.4116 | −8.9% |
Signals from the most recent daily close are sealed for a day and shown to members first.