Filecoin signals: which ones have held up
19 common signals tested on every daily FIL candle since 15 Oct 2020 (2,222 days). None of them shows reliable evidence of an effect on the following week. 10 signals did no better than picking days at random.
FIL price · last close$0.617614 Nov 2026 close: $0.6176 (7d −21.7%)
RSI (14)23.8under 30
Volume vs 30-day average1.81×3× or more is a spike
Market buys, share of volume45.0%above 50%: buyers lifting offers
From all-time high−100%below the 200-day average
Trading signals, ranked by evidence
| Signal | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | 42 | 33% | −3.6% | −1.1% | 63% | 50 | Weak evidence | 14 Jun 2026 |
| RSI rises above 70 | 26 | 54% | +2.9% | −1.1% | 52% | 47 | Weak evidence | 13 Sep 2026 |
| 10% jump in a day | 51 | 45% | −1.0% | −1.1% | 99% | 45 | Weak evidence | 5 Oct 2026 |
| 20% drop in a week | 37 | 30% | −1.7% | −1.1% | 94% | 45 | Weak evidence | 5 Jun 2026 |
| Breakout to a 90-day high | 15 | 53% | +3.9% | −1.1% | 56% | 43 | Weak evidence | 13 Sep 2026 |
| Five red days in a row | 35 | 43% | −0.6% | −1.1% | 97% | 43 | Weak evidence | 26 Oct 2026 |
| Capitulation: heavy drop on heavy volume | 17 | 53% | +0.1% | −1.1% | 93% | 36 | Weak evidence | 8 Nov 2025 |
| 10% drop in a day | 50 | 42% | −2.4% | −1.1% | 82% | 23 | No better than chance | 12 Oct 2026 |
| Extreme sell pressure | 58 | 41% | −1.8% | −1.1% | 91% | 22 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| RSI drops below 30 | 29 | 55% | +2.2% | −1.1% | 61% | 21 | No better than chance | 8 Feb 2026 |
| Extreme buy pressure | 55 | 42% | −1.2% | −1.1% | 99% | 20 | No better than chance | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Volume spike on a green day | 31 | 42% | −1.0% | −1.1% | 99% | 16 | No better than chance | 13 Sep 2026 |
| Breakdown to a 90-day low | 22 | 55% | +1.3% | −1.1% | 78% | 16 | No better than chance | 18 Aug 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | 25 | 44% | −1.7% | −1.1% | 96% | 14 | No better than chance | 18 Jul 2026 |
| Volume spike on a red day | 22 | 41% | −1.1% | −1.1% | 100% | 11 | No better than chance | 14 Sep 2026 |
| Five green days in a row | 19 | 42% | −0.3% | −1.1% | 96% | 11 | No better than chance | 7 Apr 2026 |
| Volatility squeeze | 20 | 45% | −0.7% | −1.1% | 98% | 11 | No better than chance | 11 Aug 2026 |
| Golden cross | 4 | 25% | −7.5% | −1.1% | 28% | Too few cases | 4 Oct 2026 | |
| Death cross | 4 | 25% | −5.3% | −1.1% | 47% | Too few cases | 22 Feb 2025 |
After drops and rallies
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10% rise in 3 days | 82 | 37% | −4.2% | −1.1% | 28% | 52 | Weak evidence | 5 Oct 2026 |
| 50% rise in 30 days | 36 | 39% | −5.4% | −1.1% | 36% | 52 | Weak evidence | 5 Oct 2026 |
| 7% drop in a day | 93 | 37% | −2.7% | −1.1% | 63% | 49 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 5% rise in a day | 139 | 40% | −2.9% | −1.1% | 45% | 49 | Weak evidence | 30 Oct 2026 |
| 7% rise in a day | 91 | 42% | −2.3% | −1.1% | 76% | 48 | Weak evidence | 5 Oct 2026 |
| 15% drop in 7 days | 70 | 43% | −1.9% | −1.1% | 87% | 47 | Weak evidence | 8 Nov 2026 |
| 20% rise in 3 days | 28 | 50% | +0.4% | −1.1% | 87% | 42 | Weak evidence | 26 Sep 2026 |
| 20% drop in 3 days | 19 | 26% | −3.3% | −1.1% | 80% | 39 | Weak evidence | 6 Jun 2026 |
| 100% rise in 30 days | 11 | 36% | −5.3% | −1.1% | 71% | 39 | Weak evidence | 7 Dec 2024 |
| 20% rise in 7 days | 39 | 51% | +0.9% | −1.1% | 73% | 24 | No better than chance | 27 Sep 2026 |
| 15% drop in 3 days | 45 | 38% | −2.3% | −1.1% | 84% | 23 | No better than chance | 16 Sep 2026 |
| 5% drop in a day | 150 | 42% | −2.2% | −1.1% | 71% | 22 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 10% drop in 3 days | 94 | 43% | −1.7% | −1.1% | 89% | 21 | No better than chance | 24 Oct 2026 |
| 30% drop in 30 days | 62 | 44% | −1.6% | −1.1% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance | 12 Nov 2026 |
| 15% rise in a day | 24 | 54% | +3.0% | −1.1% | 53% | 21 | No better than chance | 13 Sep 2026 |
| 30% drop in 7 days | 12 | 67% | +4.6% | −1.1% | 54% | 18 | No better than chance | 14 Nov 2025 |
| 40% drop in 30 days | 27 | 59% | +0.4% | −1.1% | 87% | 17 | No better than chance | 12 Feb 2026 |
| 50% drop in 30 days | 10 | 50% | −1.8% | −1.1% | 97% | 17 | No better than chance | 7 Dec 2025 |
| 30% rise in 7 days | 20 | 55% | +1.5% | −1.1% | 77% | 15 | No better than chance | 8 May 2026 |
| 15% drop in a day | 17 | 41% | −1.7% | −1.1% | 97% | 10 | No better than chance | 5 Jun 2026 |
| 50% rise in 7 days | 7 | 29% | −9.9% | −1.1% | 7.3% | Too few cases | 7 Nov 2025 |
When Bitcoin moves
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin drops 5% in a day | 62 | 35% | −4.2% | −1.1% | 38% | 52 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Bitcoin jumps 5% in a day | 75 | 53% | +0.3% | −1.1% | 75% | 48 | Weak evidence | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Bitcoin jumps 10% in a day | 12 | 25% | −4.7% | −1.1% | 73% | 39 | Weak evidence | 6 Feb 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 10% in a day | 11 | 55% | +2.3% | −1.1% | 79% | 38 | Weak evidence | 5 Feb 2026 |
Returns are measured 7 days after the daily close that confirmed the signal. “Ordinary” is the median 7-day move from any day. How the proof score works.
Seen in the last 30 days
| Date | Signal | Close | +7d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov 2026 | Extreme sell pressure | $0.7875 | −5.5% |
| 26 Oct 2026 | Five red days in a row | $0.9139 | −4.3% |
| 25 Oct 2026 | Extreme sell pressure | $0.9255 | −4.8% |
Signals from the most recent daily close are sealed for a day and shown to members first.