Fetch.ai signals: which ones have held up
19 common signals tested on every daily FET candle since 28 Feb 2019 (2,817 days). 1 signal show evidence of an effect on the following week. 6 signals did no better than picking days at random.
FET price · last close$0.127414 Nov 2026 close: $0.1274 (7d −12.2%)
RSI (14)29.4under 30
Volume vs 30-day average1.12×3× or more is a spike
Market buys, share of volume47.6%above 50%: buyers lifting offers
From all-time high−96%below the 200-day average
Trading signals, ranked by evidence
| Signal | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakout to a 90-day high | 32 | 69% | +9.5% | −1.2% | 8.2% | 90 | Strong evidence · leans up | 21 Sep 2026 |
| Extreme buy pressure | 55 | 56% | +2.9% | −1.2% | 45% | 51 | Weak evidence | 30 Oct 2026 |
| Volume spike on a green day | 41 | 39% | −3.9% | −1.2% | 74% | 49 | Weak evidence | 21 Aug 2026 |
| 10% jump in a day | 114 | 55% | +1.7% | −1.2% | 42% | 49 | Weak evidence | 4 Oct 2026 |
| Breakdown to a 90-day low | 31 | 35% | −6.8% | −1.2% | 43% | 49 | Weak evidence | 15 Aug 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | 45 | 36% | −2.9% | −1.2% | 86% | 48 | Weak evidence | 4 Nov 2026 |
| 10% drop in a day | 92 | 52% | +0.4% | −1.2% | 77% | 47 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Extreme sell pressure | 65 | 49% | −0.5% | −1.2% | 94% | 46 | Weak evidence | 31 Oct 2026 |
| 20% drop in a week | 68 | 49% | −0.4% | −1.2% | 93% | 46 | Weak evidence | 18 Oct 2026 |
| Five green days in a row | 27 | 59% | +2.3% | −1.2% | 71% | 44 | Weak evidence | 24 May 2026 |
| Five red days in a row | 32 | 44% | −0.8% | −1.2% | 98% | 42 | Weak evidence | 25 Oct 2026 |
| RSI rises above 70 | 41 | 51% | +1.2% | −1.2% | 78% | 24 | No better than chance | 25 Sep 2026 |
| Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | 44 | 43% | −1.8% | −1.2% | 97% | 21 | No better than chance | 6 Nov 2026 |
| RSI drops below 30 | 28 | 43% | −3.7% | −1.2% | 82% | 18 | No better than chance | 15 Aug 2026 |
| Volume spike on a red day | 23 | 48% | −3.8% | −1.2% | 84% | 15 | No better than chance | 22 Aug 2026 |
| Volatility squeeze | 25 | 56% | +0.6% | −1.2% | 89% | 15 | No better than chance | 25 Jul 2026 |
| Capitulation: heavy drop on heavy volume | 12 | 50% | +2.0% | −1.2% | 85% | 11 | No better than chance | 9 Oct 2025 |
| Golden cross | 9 | 56% | +12.3% | −1.2% | 3.1% | Too few cases | 12 Oct 2026 | |
| Death cross | 8 | 75% | +5.1% | −1.2% | 27% | Too few cases | 26 Jun 2026 |
After drops and rallies
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% rise in 30 days | 33 | 70% | +10.3% | −1.2% | 2.8% | 97 | Strong evidence · leans up | 8 May 2025 |
| 50% rise in 30 days | 78 | 60% | +5.2% | −1.2% | 4.0% | 95 | Strong evidence · leans up | 4 Oct 2026 |
| 30% drop in 7 days | 26 | 65% | +7.6% | −1.2% | 22% | 57 | Some evidence · leans up | 5 Feb 2026 |
| 15% rise in a day | 54 | 56% | +4.3% | −1.2% | 25% | 54 | Weak evidence | 21 Sep 2026 |
| 30% rise in 7 days | 60 | 57% | +2.3% | −1.2% | 52% | 50 | Weak evidence | 22 Sep 2026 |
| 20% rise in 7 days | 90 | 57% | +1.6% | −1.2% | 52% | 49 | Weak evidence | 21 Sep 2026 |
| 5% rise in a day | 229 | 53% | +0.9% | −1.2% | 38% | 48 | Weak evidence | 11 Oct 2026 |
| 7% rise in a day | 174 | 52% | +0.6% | −1.2% | 57% | 48 | Weak evidence | 4 Oct 2026 |
| 40% drop in 30 days | 56 | 43% | −2.1% | −1.2% | 93% | 46 | Weak evidence | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 50% rise in 7 days | 22 | 45% | −1.9% | −1.2% | 97% | 37 | Weak evidence | 16 Mar 2026 |
| 7% drop in a day | 160 | 51% | +0.1% | −1.2% | 75% | 22 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 15% drop in 3 days | 90 | 42% | −2.6% | −1.2% | 82% | 22 | No better than chance | 8 Oct 2026 |
| 20% drop in 3 days | 43 | 49% | −0.1% | −1.2% | 93% | 22 | No better than chance | 4 Jun 2026 |
| 30% drop in 30 days | 102 | 44% | −2.5% | −1.2% | 83% | 22 | No better than chance | 7 Nov 2026 |
| 20% rise in 3 days | 74 | 47% | −0.2% | −1.2% | 91% | 22 | No better than chance | 26 Sep 2026 |
| 5% drop in a day | 229 | 48% | −0.8% | −1.2% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| 10% drop in 3 days | 160 | 48% | −0.5% | −1.2% | 90% | 21 | No better than chance | 7 Nov 2026 |
| 10% rise in 3 days | 162 | 46% | −1.6% | −1.2% | 94% | 21 | No better than chance | 5 Oct 2026 |
| 15% drop in 7 days | 108 | 44% | −1.0% | −1.2% | 98% | 20 | No better than chance | 12 Oct 2026 |
| 50% drop in 30 days | 21 | 52% | +1.2% | −1.2% | 86% | 14 | No better than chance | 4 Nov 2025 |
| 15% drop in a day | 23 | 48% | −1.5% | −1.2% | 99% | 12 | No better than chance | 5 Feb 2026 |
When Bitcoin moves
| Condition | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Ordinary | By luck | Proof score | Verdict | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin jumps 5% in a day | 105 | 55% | +1.2% | −1.2% | 57% | 49 | Weak evidence | 18 Sep 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 5% in a day | 84 | 48% | −0.5% | −1.2% | 93% | 21 | No better than chance | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Bitcoin jumps 10% in a day | 23 | 52% | 0.0% | −1.2% | 93% | 13 | No better than chance | 6 Feb 2026 |
| Bitcoin drops 10% in a day | 16 | 44% | −1.0% | −1.2% | 99% | 8 | No better than chance | 5 Feb 2026 |
Returns are measured 7 days after the daily close that confirmed the signal. “Ordinary” is the median 7-day move from any day. How the proof score works.
Seen in the last 30 days
| Date | Signal | Close | +7d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov 2026 | Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | $0.1470 | +0.8% |
| 5 Nov 2026 | 10% drop in a day | $0.1434 | +3.4% |
| 4 Nov 2026 | Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | $0.1619 | −8.1% |
| 31 Oct 2026 | Extreme sell pressure | $0.1596 | −9.1% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | Extreme buy pressure | $0.1667 | −11.8% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | Whale footprint: large trades, buyers in control | $0.1667 | −11.8% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 10% drop in a day | $0.1634 | −12.2% |
| 27 Oct 2026 | Whale footprint: large trades, sellers in control | $0.1823 | −14.7% |
| 25 Oct 2026 | Five red days in a row | $0.1755 | −7.7% |
| 20 Oct 2026 | Extreme buy pressure | $0.1966 | −7.3% |
| 18 Oct 2026 | 20% drop in a week | $0.1894 | −7.3% |
Signals from the most recent daily close are sealed for a day and shown to members first.