Ethereum · ETH/USDT · daily
What happens to Ethereum after a 40% drop in 30 days?
Since 2017, Ethereum has shown a 40% drop in 30 days 23 times. In the 23 cases old enough to score, the price was higher 7 days later 65% of the time, with a median move of +2.8%. On an ordinary day the median 7-day move for ETH is +0.3%.
Weak evidence43
There is a gap, but once you allow for how many studies were run, a gap this large is luck about 70% of the time, so it should not be relied on.
By holding period
| After | Cases | Higher | Median move | Middle half | Ordinary median | Gap | By luck | Proof score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 23 | 61% | +1.9% | −1.6% to +4.7% | +0.1% | +1.8% | 8.5% | 83 |
| 3 days | 23 | 52% | +1.0% | −5.0% to +9.5% | +0.2% | +0.7% | 82% | 14 |
| 7 days | 23 | 65% | +2.8% | −4.4% to +7.2% | +0.3% | +2.5% | 70% | 43 |
| 14 days | 23 | 61% | +2.6% | −12.5% to +25.5% | +0.3% | +2.3% | 87% | 40 |
| 30 days | 23 | 70% | +20.1% | −3.3% to +45.4% | +1.1% | +19.0% | 14% | 74 |
“Ordinary median” is the median move of ETH over the same number of days starting from any day. “Gap” is the signal's median minus the ordinary one. “By luck” is how often a gap at least that large comes from randomly chosen days, corrected for the 3,572 studies run at each holding period (for this study taken alone: 26%).
Holding it for 7 days
Dips and best points use each day's low and high, measured from the close on the signal day. Costs assume 0.3% for a round trip: a 0.1% exchange fee each way and 0.05% slippage each way.
Did it hold up over time?
Splitting the cases by date: in the earlier 13 the gap over 7 days was +1.2%, and in the later 10 it was +3.9%. Same direction both times.
Every occurrence
One square per occurrence, oldest first. Green: higher 7 days later. Red: lower. Grey: not yet 7 days old.
| Date | Close | +1d | +7d | +30d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Feb 2026 | $1,948 | +5.2% | +0.1% | +7.6% |
| 5 Feb 2026 | $1,827 | +12.9% | +6.6% | +7.8% |
| 29 Jun 2022 | $1,100 | −2.7% | +7.8% | +56.5% |
| 20 Jun 2022 | $1,128 | −0.2% | +5.7% | +34.9% |
| 13 Jun 2022 | $1,210 | −0.1% | −6.7% | −7.8% |
| 27 May 2022 | $1,727 | +3.8% | +2.8% | −30.7% |
| 22 Jan 2022 | $2,412 | +5.3% | +7.8% | +6.5% |
| 10 Jun 2021 | $2,471 | −4.7% | −4.0% | −14.6% |
| 5 Apr 2020 | $142.7 | +20.1% | +11.2% | +43.9% |
| 26 Mar 2020 | $138.4 | −5.1% | +2.1% | +40.3% |
| 19 Mar 2020 | $136.3 | −2.1% | +1.5% | +37.5% |
| 12 Mar 2020 | $107.8 | +24.3% | +26.4% | +46.8% |
The 12 most recent. All 23 are in the open data file.
The rule
Close at least 40% below the close 30 days earlier.
Occurrences closer than 7 days to the previous one are not counted again. The signal is confirmed at the daily close (00:00 UTC) and returns are measured from that close. Full method.
The same signal on other coins
| Coin | Cases | Higher after 7d | Median | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Theta Network | 28 | 61% | +8.0% | +8.6% | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Cardano | 25 | 68% | +7.3% | +8.2% | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Kava | 35 | 71% | +5.9% | +6.4% | Strong evidence · leans up |
 Neo | 36 | 67% | +3.4% | +4.0% | Weak evidence |
 IOTA | 26 | 65% | +4.8% | +5.6% | Weak evidence |
 PancakeSwap | 23 | 65% | +4.6% | +5.4% | Weak evidence |
 Gitcoin | 23 | 52% | +5.4% | +6.6% | Weak evidence |
 The Sandbox | 25 | 56% | +3.5% | +4.8% | Weak evidence |
40% drop in 30 days across all 94 coins
Other Ethereum signals
New signals are sealed in the public ledger at the daily close. Members see them immediately; everyone else sees them a day later.
See today's signals